Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Good loser

road_high wrote: »

Leo is cultivating the FG heartland perfectly and this is where his message is resonating strongest. That the fact that comments on rewarding work/early risers narked the Loony Left so much is seen as a triumph amongst his core.
There is a strong antagonism out there towards the left amongst the middle classes that is bubbling away underneath the surface. The left and co have had an extremely easy 6 or 7 years but I have a feeling as the economic recovery is at least being more widely felt their message of doom and incessant negativity is waning. Hence their new obsession with so called "homelessness".
Enda Kenny tried to pander to all sections (with no success), Leo is not interested in spreading his franchise as thinly and that's why he is going down so well with the FG core.

Interesting analysis and correct imo.

When the combined FF and FG vote/poll figure is around 60% it's a bad day for the Left. I cannot see that figure declining much over the next several years.

Losing that bad tempered apologist from TV3 was a body blow.

Good loser

jim salter wrote: »

I'm one of the people who get up early every morning and I can tell you that I did not find his comments "heartening" (and I would hazard a guess that most people in my situation didn't find it "heartening" either), if anything I found his comments condescending. He is an elitist and couldn't give a damn about those who get up early to pay his and most other politicians over inflated salaries.

For the size of the country, the mismanagement and misappropriation of public money is shocking. The inability of any given gov't to balance the books is akin to a SLT of a company being incapable of garnering success for that company.

The finances for the country could be managed in such a way that the prosperity is real for all but of course that wouldn't sit well with all of the multi-pension, multi-expense elitist ministers we have.

Let's be real - the country is in the exact same position as we were in 2004/2005/2006 - a false economy, a false property market supported by elitist landlord politicians whom have direct links with the businesses profiteering off the backs of those that 'get up early'

Varadker's reference to 'parents etc' was a factual comment - not an opinion. The only observation to make on it is: Was it correct?

uck51js9zml2yt

Good loser wrote: »

Varadker's reference to 'parents etc' was a factual comment - not an opinion. The only observation to make on it is: Was it correct?

It may have been true pre-crash but do parents really have the cash at this stage?
Its simply saying."my government isnt going to sort things out and make houses affordable so you need to get the cash from somewhere to make a house possible"

seamus

Byron Polite Savannah wrote: »

It may have been true pre-crash but do parents really have the cash at this stage?

Yes, lots do. The main players burned by the recession were the under-35s and the over-60s.
Those sitting in between - the middle-aged - would largely not have been in a "starter home" waiting to trade up and making repayments right on the edge of their earnings, nor expecting to cash in a pension in 5-10 years.

It's the children of these people who are now trying to enter the property market.

Its simply saying."my government isnt going to sort things out and make houses affordable so you need to get the cash from somewhere to make a house possible"

In a manner of speaking. It's the truth to say though that the government can't "fix" the requirement on home buyers to get a deposit, and it is perfectly normal and usual for buyers to get funding from all sorts of sources, including parents.

Labour were complaining that people couldn't get deposits for houses together. The Taoiseach was simply responding with the fact that that people have always had to get deposits together, by scrimping and saving and relying on handouts. So the current situation is nothing new.

FreudianSlippers

Byron Polite Savannah wrote: »

It may have been true pre-crash but do parents really have the cash at this stage?
Its simply saying."my government isnt going to sort things out and make houses affordable so you need to get the cash from somewhere to make a house possible"

Except that's not what he said even remotely; it has been reported that he said that people should get deposits from their parents, but if one actually took the time to listen to what he said instead of spamming what the reporters have suggested he said - it's quite a different statement.

murphaph

Surely Varadkar is the most straight talking Taoiseach in decades. That's a good thing IMO.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seem to remember Enda starting out the same way in the polls and he managed to merge FG and FF in everything but name.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Definitely a factor though.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't agree, he is stiff, remote, affected and a smile seems to hurt him.
That won't play well in the bad times.

It seems Varadkar is rattling the cage and Sinn Fein are getting worried.

Down another percentage point in the latest poll.

I actually admire him for the way he talks straight, he tells everyone about his mortgage and his personal financial arrangements, not like other politicians and political parties who say one thing and do another.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It seems Varadkar is rattling the cage and Sinn Fein are getting worried.

Down another percentage point in the latest poll.

I actually admire him for the way he talks straight, he tells everyone about his mortgage and his personal financial arrangements, not like other politicians and political parties who say one thing and do another.

I don't think I mentioned his 'straight talking' in those posts. Here is my assessment of the man whose major achievement is effectively merge the FG and FF parties who now have to act in unison to keep SF out it seems to me.

He is, 'stiff, remote, affected and a smile seems to hurt him'.

And btw we only have his word for what his mortgage is and what his financial arrangements are, the same as any other politician in the Dail. Including the ones with no bank accounts.

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't think I mentioned his 'straight talking' in those posts. Here is my assessment of the man whose major achievement is effectively merge the FG and FF parties who now have to act in unison to keep SF out it seems to me.

He is, 'stiff, remote, affected and a smile seems to hurt him'.

And btw we only have his word for what his mortgage is and what his financial arrangements are, the same as any other politician in the Dail. Including the ones with no bank accounts.

Are SF seriously going to question other TDs - whether they are Constitutional office holders or not - about their "financial arrangements"?

https://twitter.com/DessieEllisTD/status/285176066195206144

.....and Varadkar may well be stiff, remote, affected and lacking an ablity to smile and despite all that he still rates at 60% compared to the 27% rating given to the more genial, affable and smiling Adams. God love the other leaders is Varadkar does become more gregarious and smiling!

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

Are SF seriously going to question other TDs - whether they are Constitutional office holders or not - about their "financial arrangements"?

https://twitter.com/DessieEllisTD/status/285176066195206144

.....and Varadkar may well be stiff, remote, affected and lacking an ablity to smile and despite all that he still rates at 60% compared to the 27% rating given to the more genial, affable and smiling Adams. God love the other leaders is Varadkar does become more gregarious and smiling!

Who was using Gerry Adams as the comparison?
I was comparing him to most normal people.

And SF can say whatever they want, I am expressing my own opinion.

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who was using Gerry Adams as the comparison?
I was comparing him to most normal people.

And SF can say whatever they want, I am expressing my own opinion.

Well the Irish Times were......



....and well done on the opinion.

jim salter

blanch152 wrote: »

It seems Varadkar is rattling the cage and Sinn Fein are getting worried.

Down another percentage point in the latest poll.

I actually admire him for the way he talks straight, he tells everyone about his mortgage and his personal financial arrangements, not like other politicians and political parties who say one thing and do another.

And if you believe that you believe anything.

It is easy to talk about ones mortgage and personal financial arrangements when one comes from a privileged background and when one never had to do an honest days work in ones life.

Don't forget, his mortgage, along with all the other ministers are paid for by our taxes

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

Well the Irish Times were......



....and well done on the opinion.

I am not the IT and it ain't a comparison thread. But carry on dragging it around to your fav topic

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not the IT and it ain't a comparison thread. But carry on dragging it around to your fav topic

I was just bringing it back towards the article that initiated the thread - and the fact that despite his lack of empathy and occasionally wooden style (not to mention the mild veneer of egalitarianism that overlays his classism) he still polls extremely well - so much so that I'm only surprised that the alliterative adjective 'teflon' has yet to be appended to his current job title.

On the plus side, polling numbers like that limit the probability that we'll have to endure an election any time soon.

Rumpy Pumpy

jim salter wrote: »

And if you believe that you believe anything.

It is easy to talk about ones mortgage and personal financial arrangements when one comes from a privileged background and when one never had to do an honest days work in ones life.

Don't forget, his mortgage, along with all the other ministers are paid for by our taxes

His mortgage isn’t paid for by our taxes. As a politician he is paid using State money. He could buy balloons or a Honda 50 with the money. Would you rather he be paid some other way?

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who was using Gerry Adams as the comparison?
I was comparing him to most normal people.

And SF can say whatever they want, I am expressing my own opinion.

Perhaps Varadkar respects the office he holds and wishes to behave in a serious manner befitting the leader of our country.

The likes of Merkel and Macron aren't beaming with smiles all the time either. Fine with me.

I'll take seriousness over Ahern and his digouts any day.

MayoSalmon

Rumpy Pumpy wrote:

His mortgage isn’t paid for by our taxes. As a politician he is paid using State money.

And where does the state get "it's money"?

charlie14

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

.

However why are we assuming that it will be FF that will bring down the Government? What's to stop Leo calling a snap election to consolidate his position? I reckon it would pay off, so long as he doesn't follow Theresa May's disastrous strategy of having a long and drawn out campaign.

It would be my opinion that Varadkar calling a snap election to consolidate could be counter-productive.

Low to mid 30%, depending on which poll you take, would not leave him with an overall majority.
Straight away you are into "who will form a coalition government" quickly followed by voters "why the hell are we having this election when he is already Taoiseach".
The long out campaign hurt May, but the "why the hell........." added to it.

There is also the up-coming proposed referendum on the 8th.
Calling a snap election before that would give the impression that FG are attempting a dodge due to serious problems within the party on the issue.

charlie14

Rumpy Pumpy wrote: »

FFs volte face on water charges did them no favours I think. There was a large and relatively silent group in Ireland who wanted to see others contribute for once. Their ill-timed attempt at populism backfired.

FG do seem to best represent the type of folks who work, pay tax, and aspire to a better life for themselves and society. While also offering realistic solutions that don’t rely on magic money or voodoo economics.

No wish to re-hash the whole water charges debacle, but there were quite a few FG supporters not in favour of water charges. The main reason for the capped charges.
Whatever about others, it was not a issue FG gained votes on in the last general or the prior local election.

splinter65

I thought he had a very handsome swagger out in Davos.
Best looking prime minister in the EU God bless his comedy socks.

charlie14

Good loser wrote: »

Interesting analysis and correct imo.

When the combined FF and FG vote/poll figure is around 60% it's a bad day for the Left. I cannot see that figure declining much over the next several years.

Losing that bad tempered apologist from TV3 was a body blow.

Not a great day for FF or FG either when their combined vote is only 60%.

Unless they both are prepared to state they are prepared to form a coalition government.

Of course there is always the possibility of either hitching up with SF as the numbers are there also.

seamus

charlie14 wrote: »

Not a great day for FF or FG either when their combined vote is only 60%

It's the new normal, and it's very good for democracy.

FG in particular have never had a sewn-up majority anyway - their largest ever first-preference return was 39.8%. Against which, a 34% approval rating looks very good, especially coming out of the last election campaign which was hard-fought.

It's FF that have had the biggest fall in Irish history - their standard first preference returns were always well north of 40%.

Remember also that polling can really only look at individual responses. The nuance of of our PR-STV system can't be properly captured.

So the two main parties polling at 60% between them may easily translate to 70-80% of the seats at the ballot box.

charlie14

seamus wrote: »

It's the new normal, and it's very good for democracy.

FG in particular have never had a sewn-up majority anyway - their largest ever first-preference return was 39.8%. Against which, a 34% approval rating looks very good, especially coming out of the last election campaign which was hard-fought.

It's FF that have had the biggest fall in Irish history - their standard first preference returns were always well north of 40%.

Remember also that polling can really only look at individual responses. The nuance of of our PR-STV system can't be properly captured.

So the two main parties polling at 60% between them may easily translate to 70-80% of the seats at the ballot box.

I would concur with much of what you say, but the problem I would see with the present position of both FF and FG is that both FF and FG have in the past draw their support from the center. Be that center,center right or center left.
2011 the FF vote fell apart falling from 41% to 17.5% and from this 23.5% drop FG gained 8.5% with Labour gaining 9.5%.

Come 2016 the FG vote had returned to 25.5% (their core vote) and the F FF vote rose by 7.5% to 24.5%
With the Labour vote having fallen apart would those figures not perhaps suggest that the center/center right vote of FF and FG combined is around 50% as neither had any opposition from the right in the last two General elections.
To me anyway they would indicate that for either FF or FG to increase their vote percentage they will have to be attractive, not just too the center/center right, but also to the center left voter.

While as you say that 32/34% poll for FG looks good when you consider their highest ever 1st preference, even with that 1st preference it required a coalition with Labour to form a government .
Not only is that highly doubtful for the foreseeable future with no appetite from Labour for such an arrangement, it is something that could have a detrimental effect on FG who have traditionally received a boost on seat numbers from Labour transfers at the latter stage of counts.

Even going on a combined FF/FG 60% figure from those polls, short of them running as a coalition I would have difficulty seeing them with a combined seat total of 70-80%.
Even if the did without running as a coalition with the present political landscape it would come down to the situation we have at present.
One which would be recognised by the electorate very early in any general election campaign.

blackwhite

charlie14 wrote: »

I would concur with much of what you say, but the problem I would see with the present position of both FF and FG is that both FF and FG have in the past draw their support from the center. Be that center,center right or center left.
2011 the FF vote fell apart falling from 41% to 17.5% and from this 23.5% drop FG gained 8.5% with Labour gaining 9.5%.

Come 2016 the FG vote had returned to 25.5% (their core vote) and the F FF vote rose by 7.5% to 24.5%
With the Labour vote having fallen apart would those figures not perhaps suggest that the center/center right vote of FF and FG combined is around 50% as neither had any opposition from the right in the last two General elections.
To me anyway they would indicate that for either FF or FG to increase their vote percentage they will have to be attractive, not just too the center/center right, but also to the center left voter.

While as you say that 32/34% poll for FG looks good when you consider their highest ever 1st preference, even with that 1st preference it required a coalition with Labour to form a government .
Not only is that highly doubtful for the foreseeable future with no appetite from Labour for such an arrangement, it is something that could have a detrimental effect on FG who have traditionally received a boost on seat numbers from Labour transfers at the latter stage of counts.

Even going on a combined FF/FG 60% figure from those polls, short of them running as a coalition I would have difficulty seeing them with a combined seat total of 70-80%.
Even if the did without running as a coalition with the present political landscape it would come down to the situation we have at present.
One which would be recognised by the electorate very early in any general election campaign.

FF historically have always leaned more left than right on economic issues, and prior to 2011 had always taken a fair chunk of the centre-left vote.

(This of course ignoring that all Irish political parties would be viewed as sitting between centre-left to hard left on nearly any other countries spectrum).

I cannot see FG getting enough seats to for a government on their own. They’ll never win over enough from the left.

I can see FF being populist enough to win back some of the centre-left, but even then I can't see them forming a majority Govt either in he next 2/3 Dails.

People forget that it’s been over 40 years since an election delivered a single party with a majority, and almost 30 years since we last had a single party government (and even that was a minority Govt).
Coalition will be a feature of Irish Govt for many elections to come - it’s the normal position at this stage TBH.

What we are drastically missing is a “kingmaker” - since the collapse of the PDs and the decimation of both Labour and the Greens there’s no other party close enough to the centre to make a natural fit with FF or FG, and IMO there’s certainly no viable party that looks to be mature enough to put the country first and negotiate a compromise with a larger party to form a Govt.

James Brown

The real scandal is the acceptance of his behavior and his lack of anything new, considering his hard pushed PR as a young firebrand who gets things done.
He's the quintessential 'stay the course, nothing to see here' old guard(a) conservative.

We just need look to his supporters more concerned with public perception of the varying scandals than the scandals themselves. That's his era in a nutshell.

He'll likely do well, (like Bertie before him) and he'll be vindicated from any responsibility. .

charlie14

blackwhite wrote: »

FF historically have always leaned more left than right on economic issues, and prior to 2011 had always taken a fair chunk of the centre-left vote.

(This of course ignoring that all Irish political parties would be viewed as sitting between centre-left to hard left on nearly any other countries spectrum).

I cannot see FG getting enough seats to for a government on their own. They’ll never win over enough from the left.

I can see FF being populist enough to win back some of the centre-left, but even then I can see them forming a majority Govt either in he next 2/3 Dails.

People forget that it’s been over 40 years since an election delivered a single party with a majority, and almost 30 years since we last had a single party government (and even that was a minority Govt).
Coalition will be a feature of Irish Govt for many elections to come - it’s the normal position at this stage TBH.

What we are drastically missing is a “kingmaker” - since the collapse of the PDs and the decimation of both Labour and the Greens there’s no other party close enough to the centre to make a natural fit with FF or FG, and IMO there’s certainly no viable party that looks to be mature enough to put the country first and negotiate a compromise with a larger party to form a Govt.

Pretty spot on analysis in my opinion and would leave FG with a lot of explaining to do too the electorate should they go for a snap election.

The only way I can see an election before the next budget is there is a bust up between FF and FG on the confidence and supply arrangement or something similar to the Fitzgerald ruckus.

Even after next budget there will be more appetite from the electorate for another such arrangement than a general election imo.
There is nothing to indicate that afterwards we would not be back in that position anyway with neither FG or FF having the numbers to form a government on their own, and no coalition partner for either to do so.

Although it will be interesting to see where McDonald may take SF with Adams gone.
They are the only party that can play kingmaker as Labour are not going to recover anytime soon.

Jawgap

Some interesting analysis here:-

Irish general election forecast – Fine Gael set to recover many of their 2016 losses

.....although it needs to come with a rather large health warning about a limited dataset and a failure to drill down to beyond constituency level.

....the overall suggestion seems to be that FG and to a lesser extent FF would recover some lost ground at the expense of the Independents, PBP and SF.

In the 160 seat chamber, with 80 required for a majority, the composition would be something like:

• Fine Gael 70 (up 20)
• Fianna Fáil 46 (up 2)
• Sinn Féin 19 (down 4)
• Independents 16 (down 7)
• Labour 3 (down 4)
• Solidarity-People Before Profit 1 (down 5)
• Social Democrats 3 (no change)
• Greens 1 (down 1)
• Ceann Comhairle 1 (no change)

Whilst this outcome would see Fine Gael recoup almost all of their seats lost in the 2016 election, they would still struggle to put together a governing coalition due to the meltdown of Labour, their traditional coalition partners.

[FG] To win 80 seats and an outright majority, they would need to win a third seat in Galway West, in addition to all the contests that the model suggests would be easier, such as third seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Cavan-Monaghan, and Cork East.

In my view it's only to be expected. People are minded to try radical solutions when in dire straits on the basis that the situation can hardly be made worse, but once the economy begins to hum and people re-generate their stake in it they want to protect it and so gravitate towards the moderates.

Doubtless the parties have more sophisticated analysis, but even if it reflects this article I still can't see FG going for a snap election given our 'tradition' of punishing the party perceived as being the cause of the vote.

blackwhite

Jawgap wrote: »

Some interesting analysis here:-

Irish general election forecast – Fine Gael set to recover many of their 2016 losses

.....although it needs to come with a rather large health warning about a limited dataset and a failure to drill down to beyond constituency level.

....the overall suggestion seems to be that FG and to a lesser extent FF would recover some lost ground at the expense of the Independents, PBP and SF.





In my view it's only to be expected. People are minded to try radical solutions when in dire straits on the basis that the situation can hardly be made worse, but once the economy begins to hum and people re-generate their stake in it they want to protect it and so gravitate towards the moderates.

Doubtless the parties have more sophisticated analysis, but even if it reflects this article I still can't see FG going for a snap election given our 'tradition' of punishing the party perceived as being the cause of the vote.

I can't see any path to either FG or FF getting 80+ seats in the near future.

There's two coalition possibilities I can see if the SoT analysis was borne out - assuming a desire to avoid a minority Govt with another confidence & supply agreement, and assuming that FG and FF remain resistant to forming a coalition together.

FG+Lab+Soc Dems - only 4 more seats then needed to hit the 80 - possibly a tie-in with the Greens and a couple of Indos would be enough.

FF + SF + Lab + Soc Dems - would still need to find another 7 to go with them. I can't see PBP/AAA/Solidarity (or whatever new label they have taken on by then) actually growing up and being willing to compromise with anyone else, so it leaves them fishing for the Indos as well.

Neither strike me as likely to be overly stable - but for as long as we have approx 10% of the Dail comprised of independents we aren't going to see any Govts formed with more than a 3/4 seat majority (unless of course, FF & FG jump in together - but I don't see FF agreeing to that anytime soon).

Jawgap

blackwhite wrote: »

I can't see any path to either FG or FF getting 80+ seats in the near future.

There's two coalition possibilities I can see if the SoT analysis was borne out - assuming a desire to avoid a minority Govt with another confidence & supply agreement, and assuming that FG and FF remain resistant to forming a coalition together.

FG+Lab+Soc Dems - only 4 more seats then needed to hit the 80 - possibly a tie-in with the Greens and a couple of Indos would be enough.

FF + SF + Lab + Soc Dems - would still need to find another 7 to go with them. I can't see PBP/AAA/Solidarity (or whatever new label they have taken on by then) actually growing up and being willing to compromise with anyone else, so it leaves them fishing for the Indos as well.

Neither strike me as likely to be overly stable - but for as long as we have approx 10% of the Dail comprised of independents we aren't going to see any Govts formed with more than a 3/4 seat majority (unless of course, FF & FG jump in together - but I don't see FF agreeing to that anytime soon).

Nothing there I'd disagree with except that I don't think FF will want to throw their lot in with SF - SF would be like that wasp that lays it's eggs in caterpillars, following which they hatch out and consume the animal from the inside. Some in FF will be so desperate for power they'll suggest it (again), but I reckon the backlash will make it an impractical proposition.

Can't really see FF and FG merging either - FF might be a bit disappointed with the pace of their recovery, but at least they're in recovery. While FG have an amount of momentum going, as Varadkar's poll numbers suggest, so probably don't feel the need just yet to look for a partner who'd want to be regarded as co-equal.

Labour, I think are the great imponderable. As soon as they realise that they could do better with Kelly at the helm that might be the start of some class of recovery for them.

El Tarangu

jim salter wrote: »

It is easy to talk about ones mortgage and personal financial arrangements when one comes from a privileged background and when one never had to do an honest days work in ones life.

Was he not a junior doctor before he entered politics? The last I heard, junior doctors were striking so that they would no longer have to work 24-hour shifts...