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Leo is the new king of Ireland.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Edward M wrote: »
    I'm not disagreeing with either of the last two posts as such, just saying that the water issue is now dead, housing and health etc haven't seen any improvement as such, but still FG are on the rise.
    That to me suggests what I said in my previous post is true.
    Once an issue doesn't affect a voter directly, it looks like some are prepared to not consider it a major problem to them, hence FGs rise in the polls.
    Nothing has improved since the last election bar the economy as far as I can see, why would FG see any increase in popularity, based on this govts record, unless voters are economically happy?

    You may be correct, but it may be worth keeping in mind that at the outset and all through the 2016 GE election campaign, FG put all their eggs in the basket based on voters being economically happy with the "Keep the recovery going" slogan.
    The exit polls from then suggest that those issues that have not changed since were a major factor in how people actually voted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You see this is more lies.

    Its a department that was set up to have better communication with the public from the government.

    Once again the opposition are the ones putting their own spin on it.

    That appears to be the spin being given alright, although there are not many swallowing it.
    Not even FG backbench TD`s who are miffed that it has robbed them of any opportunities to claim credit for any goodies coming their constituencies way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    If ff want for make Inroads, do something that costs nothing and solves a crisis. Reduce the ridiculous regulation around apartments, resulting in them either not being built or flogged for a fortune!!!

    It would take more than that IMO to solve even the shortage in apartments.
    When it comes to private developers I very much doubt easing building regulations, ridiculous as they may be, would have any great bearing on the prices being sought.

    Perhaps a reduction in the VAT rates covering construction would be of benefit, (as unlike regulations it would be a discernible cost), but like the VAT reduction for the hospitality and catering industry, debatable if it would actually result in lower prices.
    When it comes to private enterprise in Ireland, such incentives are generally gobbled up before they reach the end user.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,302 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Then it shows how quickly trends can change.

    Political polls, not just in Ireland but elsewhere, have been so inaccurate that one could be forgiven for believing that the methodology consists of stopping random individuals trying to do a bit of shopping with a screaming toddler in a push-chair.
    They give the first answer that comes into their head just to get away, but the closer election day comes give much more serious thought to the issues and vote accordingly.

    A lot of people post up statements on here with very little analysis behind them. Take you statement that the polls were inaccurate before the last general election. Well, here is someone that actually checked:

    https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/triple-crown/

    As you will see, both the exit polls were pretty accurate and MRBI were very close.

    In the run-up to the election, that last poll by MRBI produced a result that was within the margin of error for every party.

    Every single poll over-estimated the SF support, even both the exit polls did that, though sometimes it was within the margin of error.

    There was also a second structural flaw in the B&A polls where they consistently under-estimated FF support.

    All in all, as the author states, the performance by MRBI was particularly impressive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    A lot of people post up statements on here with very little analysis behind them. Take you statement that the polls were inaccurate before the last general election. Well, here is someone that actually checked:

    https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/triple-crown/

    As you will see, both the exit polls were pretty accurate and MRBI were very close.

    In the run-up to the election, that last poll by MRBI produced a result that was within the margin of error for every party.

    Every single poll over-estimated the SF support, even both the exit polls did that, though sometimes it was within the margin of error.

    There was also a second structural flaw in the B&A polls where they consistently under-estimated FF support.

    All in all, as the author states, the performance by MRBI was particularly impressive.

    Well here is somebody who also checked and would not be overly impressed on the accuracy of polls based on their figures prior to the 2016 GE. Neither would I be inclined to trumpet their accuracy on them being a cumulative 11.36% off from exit polls as you appear to be doing in the case of one of them.

    Especially a 11.36% first preference vote that in 2016 would have equated to 20 Dail seats or more under our PR system.

    Perhaps a clearer example of just how off opinion polls were immediately prior to the GE.

    General Election took place 26 Feb 2016.

    Behaviour & Attitude Opinion Poll 17th Jan 2016

    FG 31%
    Ind & Others 26%
    FF 20%
    SF 16%
    Lab 6%

    Red C Poll 31st Jan 2016 Red C Poll 23rd Feb 2016

    FG 29% FG 30%
    Ind & Others 25% Ind & Others 28%
    FF 17% FF 20%
    SF 19% SF 15%
    Lab 10% Lab 7%

    General Election Results 26th Feb 2016.

    FG 25.5%
    Ind & Others 28.4%
    FF 24.4%
    SF 14.9%
    Lab 6.6%


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    FF behaving like a left party and people lapping it up was the reason.

    That's a complete cop out.
    When FF/FG do something wrong it's because they are acting like the left?
    Therefore don't vote for the left, because they'll always act like bad choice FF/FG? What a joke.

    Haughey, Ahern, Cowen, Noonan and Kenny are communists now? :rolleyes:

    How do you explain away all the generational cronyism and fraud? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael acting like ...eh, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭El Tarangu


    That's a complete cop out.
    When FF/FG do something wrong it's because they are acting like the left?
    Therefore don't vote for the left, because they'll always act like bad choice FF/FG? What a joke.

    Well, Bertie Aherne claimed to be a socialist, and public expenditure ballooned during his tenure as Taoiseach, so maybe he was.
    How do you explain away all the generational cronyism and fraud? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael acting like ...eh, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

    Are cronyism and other bad things in politics exclusively the reserve of the right?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    It's not rocket science

    Economy on the up, Varadker a young Taoiseach not associated with Enda's reign of error, Thanks to his own cynical behaviour it has to be said.

    Currently making statesmanlike shapes on Brexit and de nort. (and people underestimate how important that is, Albert and Bertie were hugely popular thanks to their profile with the peace process and north/south/Anglo/Irish relations. Bruton and Kenny made a complete balls of it and paid the price)

    Michael Martin hiding in a bunker other than his brief appearance before christmas before bolting with fright. Mary lou not a wet day in the big job and IMO probably spent too long in the public eye as Sinn Feins attack dog.

    He's well positioned all in all


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bambi wrote: »
    It's not rocket science

    Economy on the up, Varadker a young Taoiseach not associated with Enda's reign of error, Thanks to his own cynical behaviour it has to be said.

    Currently making statesmanlike shapes on Brexit and de nort. (and people underestimate how important that is, Albert and Bertie were hugely popular thanks to their profile with the peace process and north/south/Anglo/Irish relations. Bruton and Kenny made a complete balls of it and paid the price)

    Michael Martin hiding in a bunker other than his brief appearance before christmas before bolting with fright. Mary lou not a wet day in the big job and IMO probably spent too long in the public eye as Sinn Feins attack dog.

    He's well positioned all in all

    I would agree that there are people, quite a few on this site it would seem, that underestimate how important Northern Ireland issues are in the deliberations of many when it comes to the ballot box.
    The problem I can see for Varadkar down the road is that it he may have over-spun "the cast iron guarantees" on the border issue.
    If so, something that will have consequences for him and FG in any forth- coming GE.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    It's not so much the issue as the profile it affords, if you're looking statesmanlike and showing a safe pair of hands dealing the British and our northern brethren it's good for your image. As opposed to making a hames of it and looking like you were made a clown by the brits


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bambi wrote: »
    It's not so much the issue as the profile it affords, if you're looking statesmanlike and showing a safe pair of hands dealing the British and our northern brethren it's good for your image. As opposed to making a hames of it and looking like you were made a clown by the brits

    True, but if the whole "cast iron guarantee" goes pear shaped, (and it is increasingly looking as if it is going that way), then he could look as if he was made a clown off by the Brits and suffer electorally.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,302 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    True, but if the whole "cast iron guarantee" goes pear shaped, (and it is increasingly looking as if it is going that way), then he could look as if he was made a clown off by the Brits and suffer electorally.


    Doubt it.

    More likely that he would look reasonable and statesmanlike while the Brits look clueless and feckless as they have all through the Brexit process. When the question is asked as to what they would have done differently or better, SF and FF will be stuck in response.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Doubt it.

    More likely that he would look reasonable and statesmanlike while the Brits look clueless and feckless as they have all through the Brexit process. When the question is asked as to what they would have done differently or better, SF and FF will be stuck in response.

    Doubt if SF, FF, Lab or others will be stuck for a response if the "cast iron guarantees" quoted by Varadkar regarding a border fail to materialise.

    First question will be :" How was this allowed to happen when we had the publicly stated backing of our EU partners that Brexit talks would not move to Phase 2 unless we were completely satisfied on the issue", accompanied by shouts of spin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭Edward M


    A new problem for Leo.
    The abortion debate sparking claims of bullying and sexism, even misogyny, even though the claim also dates back a while, it seem to have worsened since Noone was on the oireachtas committee.
    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-bosses-promise-swift-probe-into-bullying-and-sexism-allegations-36633718.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Well here is somebody who also checked and would not be overly impressed on the accuracy of polls based on their figures prior to the 2016 GE.

    The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

    There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

    There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.

    Thats still pretty prevalent here imo , or to be more precise it's more a case of the "anyone but" syndrome.

    FF vote collapsed in 2011 - labour increased - FG - increased - SF increased.

    FG however still needed a bed partner in labour as (I would suspect) there still wasn't enough ex FF voters that were prepared to vote for them.

    Same pattern of 2016.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

    There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.

    Polls between January and June could be explained by people changing their voting intentions, but that was not the case with polls leading up to the GE of 2016.

    The GE was held 26th February 2016.
    The three polls I posted are from between 17th January 2016 and 23rd February 2016.

    In that time the figures for SF, Labour and others varied very little when compared to the GE figures, but the figures for FG and FF were wildly inaccurate over not a January - June 6 month period by a 5 week period.
    One just 3 days before the GE.

    17th January 2016 B&A : FG 31% FF 20% A difference of 11%
    31st January 2016 Red C : FG 29% FF 17% A difference of 12%
    23rd February 2016 Red C : FG 30% FF 20% A difference of 10%

    26th February 2016 GE : FG 25.5% FF 24.4% A difference of 1.1%


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    charlie14 wrote: »
    The figures for FG and FF were wildly inaccurate over not a January - June 6 month period by a 5 week period.

    Bar the top to bottom corruption and inbred gombeenism in FF, there is no difference between FF and FG anymore, so its understandable that the numbers can be fluid for people who did not inherit their voting habits (the way I did).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bar the top to bottom corruption and inbred gombeenism in FF, there is no difference between FF and FG anymore, so its understandable that the numbers can be fluid for people who did not inherit their voting habits (the way I did).

    Good point, but it does not fully explain why those polls were so far out in relation to FG and FF.
    If people simply lied to those pollsters such a short time prior to the GE, then it shows just how unreliable these polls can be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Good point, but it does not fully explain why those polls were so far out in relation to FG and FF.
    If people simply lied to those pollsters such a short time prior to the GE, then it shows just how unreliable these polls can be.

    What I am suggesting is that the poll could be right, and people changed their mind.

    FG -> FF is just Tweedledum to gombeen Tweedledee.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What I am suggesting is that the poll could be right, and people changed their mind.

    FG -> FF is just Tweedledum to gombeen Tweedledee.

    If they did over such a short time to such a degree (in one instance within 3 days), then it shows just how unreliable they can be imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭boombang


    Off topic, but looking at the vote share for independents/others, my god people are stupid with their voting behaviour.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    boombang wrote: »
    Off topic, but looking at the vote share for independents/others, my god people are stupid with their voting behaviour.

    Constituents of certain members of the Independent Alliance might not agree with you there.
    One instance alone, a garda station re-opening in Stepaside, comes to mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If they did over such a short time to such a degree (in one instance within 3 days), then it shows just how unreliable they can be imo.

    No, the poll reflects what the public think at that time. The problem is the voters are unreliable, not the polls.

    The same effect was visible in the US general election - the closer you get to polling day, the closer you get to a Hillary by 3% win, which is what happened on the day (electoral college weirdness aside).


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,796 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Leo has to stay out of the abortion debate because people will start asking him what he knows about it and that will lead to questions about his views on the family and that is how the opposition can attack the fact he is gay without ever mentioning homosexuality.
    He will lose big if that happens.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,268 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I don't really understand. What views on the family do you think holds that would be so controversial?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    What views on the family do you think holds that would be so controversial?

    Gay views from the Homosexual Agenda.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Leo has to stay out of the abortion debate because people will start asking him what he knows about it and that will lead to questions about his views on the family and that is how the opposition can attack the fact he is gay without ever mentioning homosexuality.
    He will lose big if that happens.

    I'm guessing he knows more about it than the average person given his medical qualifications.....

    .....I'm not sure how that's linked to his views on family - or why those views would be so off-the-wall as to be politically damaging.......and why would the opposition want to attack his sexual orientation? Let's face it, he's the most spin-happy, elitist, fiscally conservative Taoiseach we've ever had - there are any number of ways opponents could attack him politically......

    .......plus I'm guessing that we're not the UK or the US and delving into his private life would likely be hugely counter-productive as it engender a lot of sympathy with the wider electorate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    Gay views from the Homosexual Agenda.

    Where is this document.......


    ......and can I view the minutes of the last meeting?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,917 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No, the poll reflects what the public think at that time. The problem is the voters are unreliable, not the polls.

    The same effect was visible in the US general election - the closer you get to polling day, the closer you get to a Hillary by 3% win, which is what happened on the day (electoral college weirdness aside).

    That is a bit like the carpenter blaming his tools.

    I cannot remember anything that happened so close to polling day GE 2016,(especially from just 3 days before in one instance), that would have created such a swing in percentages to make those polls look anywhere close to reliable.
    Even the closest was 9% out.


This discussion has been closed.
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