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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #512
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Here’s the +192 ECM tonight
    Enjoy

    b58e290f0997fba9ff0f349143f03c86.jpg


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    #513
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Vintage easterly , I feel an 80s style cold spell coming on,or certainly the potential for one.


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    #514
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #515
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    nagdefy wrote: »
    If only the GFS would get it's act together! A bit underwhelming 12Z. I was really fearing an ECM climb down..

    What could happen is a blend of all three- the cold does sustain a bit longer than shown on the GFS but we eventually get the GFS breakdown. I am no expert on teleconnection signals, but they all apparently point to this being a brief cold spell. If it is a brief affair, i think most would be happy with a snowy breakdown, that way it's not just the east of Ireland that gets to have all fun:)


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    #516
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,139 ✭✭✭pad199207


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

    And 2012 :(

    Jesus when I think of it


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    #517
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

    I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...


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    #518
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

    Very true. I had forgotten that till you mentioned it. How many times did it tease us with fantastic day nine and 10 charts last year. Although if we are being optimistic we could also say that the GFS handles easterly poorly and has a tendency to be too progressive in breaking them down.


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    #519
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

    Great, well then it's had plenty of mistakes to learn from


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    #520
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

    Yes it was though not to the extent that it was in December showing the mid-December cold snap as well as New Year's easterly blast. It went overboard with the February easterly.

    I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

    I'm hoping this one is different as January has been looking like the best month for any chance of severe cold or heavy snow out of Winter 2017/18.

    The GFS is seriously doing my nuts in, same with the long range models such as the CFSv2 which are going for an exceptionally wet January and very zonal dominated.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #521
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,677 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Y

    I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

    .

    I remember they had to get grief counsellors over on Netweather for some forum regulars at the time. A lot of toys were thrown out of the prams...

    Regarding the GFS it does show some potent cold from the north west in its later stages. Also if we bear in mind what M.T Cranium has said in his winter forecast, even if this cold spell does go awry, we might have another go at it later in January.


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    #522
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yes it was though not to the extent that it was in December showing the mid-December cold snap as well as New Year's easterly blast. It went overboard with the February easterly.

    I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.


    I'm hoping this one is different as January has been looking like the best month for any chance of severe cold or heavy snow out of Winter 2017/18.

    The GFS is seriously doing my nuts in, same with the long range models such as the CFSv2 which are going for an exceptionally wet January and very zonal dominated.

    Funnily enough when I was tracking the CFS during November for the white Christmas thread it kept showing a very cold January from mid Jan onwards.


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    #523
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Just out of interest, here's the CFSv2 charts for January 2018 that I'm referring to:

    ENTFBtE.gif

    0vKxzF5.gif

    Horrible charts!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #524
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    The worst case of an easterly in the charts for a long time that never happened was January 2007

    Can I echo the mods plea that we don’t turn this into a moan and groan thread and just comment on the possibilities

    Surface winds way to the north are already easterly or northeasterly on any BBC map I’ve seen in the past few days,the omens on these spreading south are good

    The 850’s are mainly -6 to -8 on that 192 chart I posted above which could do a job in the east anyway
    Keep the feed going for a few days and look what’s lurking on the EU border for CAA (cold air advection)

    So stay positive coldies

    e4c354cf8bc985998673ed90612f5062.jpg


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    #525
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,785 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Can I echo the mods plea that we don’t turn this into a moan and groan thread and just comment on the possibilities.

    Mod Note: +1


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    #526
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Funnily enough when I was tracking the CFS during November for the white Christmas thread it kept showing a very cold January from mid Jan onwards.

    I was tracking Santa and his reindeer from the North Pole on Christmas Eve. That was more believable. :p


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    #527
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.

    Ah this winter is working out well.... I've watched the nao with interest the past few weeks. Once there's a high pressure there... It's more a matter of timing before we get it.


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    #528
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    ‘‘Tis a thing of beauty

    437675.gif


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    #529
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Here's another thing of beauty from the GEM this morning, UKMO looking good, GFS slowly backtracking to euro models...

    gem-0-192.png?00


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    #530
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Super ECM Day 6, here comes the undercut (Uppers not as cold as UKMO in the shorter term)

    ECMOPNH00_144_1.png


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    #531
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    ECM is nothing to be overly excited about if it's snow you're after. Looks predominantly dry, high pressure over the top of us mostly, briefly heads east before building over us again. We don't get - 8 uppers until day 9 and that's a marathon away and we're under the HP again by then. Not feeling the excitement


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    #532
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Shedbebreezy wrote: »
    ECM is nothing to be overly excited about if it's snow you're after. Looks predominantly dry, high pressure over the top of us mostly, briefly heads east before building over us again. Not feeling the excitement

    Disagree
    Quite Snowy at times in Leinster
    -10 850’s galore by day 10
    Dublin area especially


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    #533
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Disagree
    Quite Snowy at times in Leinster
    -10 850’s galore by day 10
    Dublin area especially

    This is day 10
    ECM1-240.GIF?03-12

    Pressure is way too high, 1030mb(anything above this is deemed a strong HP system) to 1037mb across the country, cold uppers don't appear until day 9 and HP is building over us by then. We need -8/-10 to get good showers off the Irish with the current sea temperature, that doesn't happen until day 9/10 when HP is building in and 9 days away is a long time away.


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    #534
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    You are missing my point
    -8 850’s are plenty in that flow for showers at times
    Coastal flurries only with pressure that high by day 10 but not totally dry
    The position of the high at day 10 may change but cold air advection less so
    All interesting , not boring,nonetheless
    Something’s brewing


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    #535
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    You are missing my point
    -8 850’s are plenty in that flow for showers at times
    Coastal flurries only with pressure that high by day 10 but not totally dry
    The position of the high at day 10 may change but cold air advection less so
    All interesting , not boring,nonetheless
    Something’s brewing

    But we don't get -8 until day 9, nothing close before it, so the only time is day 9 and 10 and this is day 9
    ECU1-216.GIF?03-12
    Of course it can change by then, I guess we agree to disagree. I hope I'm wrong.


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    #536
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    We’ll see anyway,it’s not worth too much discussion that far out other than trend
    Yesterday’s 12Z ecm certainly did have -8 850’s and pressure of 1024 in eastern Ireland inside a week
    I’m sure there'll be -2’s and -12’s in various runs before the pattern resolves and it’s certainly no harm broadscale as is likely to be dragging ever colder air into near Europe all the while


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    #537
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Just to point out that for every 10 hPa increase in surface pressure the 850 hPa level rises by about 80 metres. So with a surface pressure of around 1040 the 850 hPa level is over 300 metres higher than say with a surface pressure of about 1000 hPa. The snowline will therefore rise by a similar amount for the same 850 hPa temperature in the case of the higher pressure.

    Of course, a lot of other things affect snowline, so the 850 hPa is only a very rough starting point. Boundary layer soundings are the key tool. With max sea temperatures of around 10 °C in the Irish Sea in the 1040 hPa scenario we'd need at least 13 degrees colder 150 hPa above the surface (at about 890 hPa) to generate sea-effect showers. In this case the 900 hPa temperature would be a better indicator than 850 hPa temperature. The depth of the convection will depend on the height of the inversion. In the case of such high pressure the inversion will be very strong and low, so the best we could hope for would be light flurries or snow grains.


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    #538
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    On the face of it, it looks good from about four days out, but my concern, from a coldie point of view, is the lack of a really deep cold pool to the east and northeast. Moscow, for example, is still above freezing and only forecast to go a little below for the next week or so. Shouldn't we be looking for the -15 to -20 temps there biting in, to get something memorable down the line here fed by the easterly fetch?


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    #539
    The12thMan
    Registered Users Posts: 142 ✭✭The12thMan


    any of the FI chart lad see this:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-02/bomb-cyclone-set-detonate-east-coast


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    #540
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    force eleven wrote: »
    On the face of it, it looks good from about four days out, but my concern, from a coldie point of view, is the lack of a really deep cold pool to the east and northeast. Moscow, for example, is still above freezing and only forecast to go a little below for the next week or so. Shouldn't we be looking for the -15 to -20 temps there biting in, to get something memorable down the line here fed by the easterly fetch?

    No
    -8 or -10c which is what Moscow had in feb 91
    Next weeks midweek max’s at DME are -4 to -6
    But those forecasts are as iffy as our own
    The longer the feed ,the more cold will advect
    I’m not a fan of easterlys
    Northeasterlys are better
    Not ruling anything out or delving too deep at the moment
    Let’s see


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    #541
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    No
    -8 or -10c which is what Moscow had in feb 91
    Next weeks midweek max’s at DME are -4 to -6
    But those forecasts are as iffy as our own
    The longer the feed ,the more cold will advect
    I’m not a fan of easterlys
    Northeasterlys are better
    Not ruling anything out or delving too deep at the moment
    Let’s see

    Hey GS, I was having a look at some of the Archive charts of Feb 1991, it's the one cold spell that sticks in my mind. Was that a straight Easterly via a Scandinavian High or Northeasterly ?


This discussion has been closed.
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