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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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George Sunsnow

Here’s the +192 ECM tonight
Enjoy

Billcarson

Vintage easterly , I feel an 80s style cold spell coming on,or certainly the potential for one.

sryanbruen

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

If only the GFS would get it's act together! A bit underwhelming 12Z. I was really fearing an ECM climb down..

What could happen is a blend of all three- the cold does sustain a bit longer than shown on the GFS but we eventually get the GFS breakdown. I am no expert on teleconnection signals, but they all apparently point to this being a brief cold spell. If it is a brief affair, i think most would be happy with a snowy breakdown, that way it's not just the east of Ireland that gets to have all fun:)

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

And 2012

Jesus when I think of it

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

Very true. I had forgotten that till you mentioned it. How many times did it tease us with fantastic day nine and 10 charts last year. Although if we are being optimistic we could also say that the GFS handles easterly poorly and has a tendency to be too progressive in breaking them down.

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

Great, well then it's had plenty of mistakes to learn from

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

Yes it was though not to the extent that it was in December showing the mid-December cold snap as well as New Year's easterly blast. It went overboard with the February easterly.

I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

I'm hoping this one is different as January has been looking like the best month for any chance of severe cold or heavy snow out of Winter 2017/18.

The GFS is seriously doing my nuts in, same with the long range models such as the CFSv2 which are going for an exceptionally wet January and very zonal dominated.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Y

I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

.

I remember they had to get grief counsellors over on Netweather for some forum regulars at the time. A lot of toys were thrown out of the prams...

Regarding the GFS it does show some potent cold from the north west in its later stages. Also if we bear in mind what M.T Cranium has said in his winter forecast, even if this cold spell does go awry, we might have another go at it later in January.

Rebelbrowser

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes it was though not to the extent that it was in December showing the mid-December cold snap as well as New Year's easterly blast. It went overboard with the February easterly.

I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

I'm hoping this one is different as January has been looking like the best month for any chance of severe cold or heavy snow out of Winter 2017/18.

The GFS is seriously doing my nuts in, same with the long range models such as the CFSv2 which are going for an exceptionally wet January and very zonal dominated.

Funnily enough when I was tracking the CFS during November for the white Christmas thread it kept showing a very cold January from mid Jan onwards.

sryanbruen

Just out of interest, here's the CFSv2 charts for January 2018 that I'm referring to:

Horrible charts!

George Sunsnow

The worst case of an easterly in the charts for a long time that never happened was January 2007

Can I echo the mods plea that we don’t turn this into a moan and groan thread and just comment on the possibilities

Surface winds way to the north are already easterly or northeasterly on any BBC map I’ve seen in the past few days,the omens on these spreading south are good

The 850’s are mainly -6 to -8 on that 192 chart I posted above which could do a job in the east anyway
Keep the feed going for a few days and look what’s lurking on the EU border for CAA (cold air advection)

So stay positive coldies

DOCARCH

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Can I echo the mods plea that we don’t turn this into a moan and groan thread and just comment on the possibilities.

Mod Note: +1

Kermit.de.frog

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Funnily enough when I was tracking the CFS during November for the white Christmas thread it kept showing a very cold January from mid Jan onwards.

I was tracking Santa and his reindeer from the North Pole on Christmas Eve. That was more believable.

gally74

Billcarson wrote: »

Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.

Ah this winter is working out well.... I've watched the nao with interest the past few weeks. Once there's a high pressure there... It's more a matter of timing before we get it.

Nabber

‘‘Tis a thing of beauty

BLIZZARD7

Here's another thing of beauty from the GEM this morning, UKMO looking good, GFS slowly backtracking to euro models...

gem-0-192.png?00

BLIZZARD7

Super ECM Day 6, here comes the undercut (Uppers not as cold as UKMO in the shorter term)

Shedbebreezy

ECM is nothing to be overly excited about if it's snow you're after. Looks predominantly dry, high pressure over the top of us mostly, briefly heads east before building over us again. We don't get - 8 uppers until day 9 and that's a marathon away and we're under the HP again by then. Not feeling the excitement

George Sunsnow

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

ECM is nothing to be overly excited about if it's snow you're after. Looks predominantly dry, high pressure over the top of us mostly, briefly heads east before building over us again. Not feeling the excitement

Disagree
Quite Snowy at times in Leinster
-10 850’s galore by day 10
Dublin area especially

Shedbebreezy

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Disagree
Quite Snowy at times in Leinster
-10 850’s galore by day 10
Dublin area especially

This is day 10
ECM1-240.GIF?03-12

Pressure is way too high, 1030mb(anything above this is deemed a strong HP system) to 1037mb across the country, cold uppers don't appear until day 9 and HP is building over us by then. We need -8/-10 to get good showers off the Irish with the current sea temperature, that doesn't happen until day 9/10 when HP is building in and 9 days away is a long time away.

George Sunsnow

You are missing my point
-8 850’s are plenty in that flow for showers at times
Coastal flurries only with pressure that high by day 10 but not totally dry
The position of the high at day 10 may change but cold air advection less so
All interesting , not boring,nonetheless
Something’s brewing

Shedbebreezy

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You are missing my point
-8 850’s are plenty in that flow for showers at times
Coastal flurries only with pressure that high by day 10 but not totally dry
The position of the high at day 10 may change but cold air advection less so
All interesting , not boring,nonetheless
Something’s brewing

But we don't get -8 until day 9, nothing close before it, so the only time is day 9 and 10 and this is day 9
ECU1-216.GIF?03-12

Of course it can change by then, I guess we agree to disagree. I hope I'm wrong.

George Sunsnow

We’ll see anyway,it’s not worth too much discussion that far out other than trend
Yesterday’s 12Z ecm certainly did have -8 850’s and pressure of 1024 in eastern Ireland inside a week
I’m sure there'll be -2’s and -12’s in various runs before the pattern resolves and it’s certainly no harm broadscale as is likely to be dragging ever colder air into near Europe all the while

Gaoth Laidir

Just to point out that for every 10 hPa increase in surface pressure the 850 hPa level rises by about 80 metres. So with a surface pressure of around 1040 the 850 hPa level is over 300 metres higher than say with a surface pressure of about 1000 hPa. The snowline will therefore rise by a similar amount for the same 850 hPa temperature in the case of the higher pressure.

Of course, a lot of other things affect snowline, so the 850 hPa is only a very rough starting point. Boundary layer soundings are the key tool. With max sea temperatures of around 10 °C in the Irish Sea in the 1040 hPa scenario we'd need at least 13 degrees colder 150 hPa above the surface (at about 890 hPa) to generate sea-effect showers. In this case the 900 hPa temperature would be a better indicator than 850 hPa temperature. The depth of the convection will depend on the height of the inversion. In the case of such high pressure the inversion will be very strong and low, so the best we could hope for would be light flurries or snow grains.

force eleven

On the face of it, it looks good from about four days out, but my concern, from a coldie point of view, is the lack of a really deep cold pool to the east and northeast. Moscow, for example, is still above freezing and only forecast to go a little below for the next week or so. Shouldn't we be looking for the -15 to -20 temps there biting in, to get something memorable down the line here fed by the easterly fetch?

The12thMan

any of the FI chart lad see this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-02/bomb-cyclone-set-detonate-east-coast

George Sunsnow

force eleven wrote: »

On the face of it, it looks good from about four days out, but my concern, from a coldie point of view, is the lack of a really deep cold pool to the east and northeast. Moscow, for example, is still above freezing and only forecast to go a little below for the next week or so. Shouldn't we be looking for the -15 to -20 temps there biting in, to get something memorable down the line here fed by the easterly fetch?

No
-8 or -10c which is what Moscow had in feb 91
Next weeks midweek max’s at DME are -4 to -6
But those forecasts are as iffy as our own
The longer the feed ,the more cold will advect
I’m not a fan of easterlys
Northeasterlys are better
Not ruling anything out or delving too deep at the moment
Let’s see

Easterly Beasterly

George Sunsnow wrote: »

No
-8 or -10c which is what Moscow had in feb 91
Next weeks midweek max’s at DME are -4 to -6
But those forecasts are as iffy as our own
The longer the feed ,the more cold will advect
I’m not a fan of easterlys
Northeasterlys are better
Not ruling anything out or delving too deep at the moment
Let’s see

Hey GS, I was having a look at some of the Archive charts of Feb 1991, it's the one cold spell that sticks in my mind. Was that a straight Easterly via a Scandinavian High or Northeasterly ?