47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

Consonata · 07-12-2017 4:09pm #1

https://www.derryjournal.com/news/47-9-would-back-a-united-ireland-in-the-event-of-a-hard-brexit-1-8279946

Sinn Féin MEP Martina Anderson says new findings that a large plurality of people would support a United Ireland if it kept the North in the European Union after a 'hard Brexit' reveal a deep level of concern about the 'Tory/DUP anti-EU agenda'.

A new LucidTalk poll commissioned by the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) group in the European Parliament, of which Ms. Anderson is a member, also found that a majority of people in the North now support 'Special Status' within the EU.

Key findings of the poll were: that 57.8 per cent of people support 'Special Status' for the North within the EU; that 47.9 per cent support the North remaining in the EU by joining a United Ireland; that 52.4 per cent believe there will be a reduction in rights as a result of Brexit; and that 75.8 per cent believe EU standards should be maintained post-Brexit.

The Derry-based MEP said: "The results of this opinion poll, which was carried out by LucidTalk and commissioned by GUE/NGL, shows that a majority of people, 57.8 per cent, believe that the North should be given 'Special Status within the EU, including remaining in the customs union and single market.

"This vote, just like that of the majority who voted to remain in the EU in last year's referendum, is drawn from all sections of society across the North.

"The poll also shows that a majority [sic] 47.9 per cent, believe that the north should remain in the EU by becoming part of a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit.'

"It also found that 52.4 per cent of people believe that there will be a decrease in rights as a result of Brexit.

"This shows the deep level of concern about the Tory/DUP Brexit agenda and reinforces that the DUP do not represent the views of the people of the people of the North.

"While of course this is an opinion poll, it also chimes with what we have been hearing in our engagements with people from all sections of society from across the north.

"What this shows is that more and more people now realise that securing special status for the north within the EU is achievable and offers the best protection for the Good Friday Agreement and citizens rights."

ancapailldorcha · 07-12-2017 4:28pm

Mod: I'm happy to leave this but please try and add some sort of opinion or analysis when posting links. Thanks.

Edward M · 07-12-2017 4:34pm

Consonata wrote: »

https://www.derryjournal.com/news/47-9-would-back-a-united-ireland-in-the-event-of-a-hard-brexit-1-8279946

What do you think of that yourself op?

demfad · 07-12-2017 4:34pm

Consonata wrote: »

https://www.derryjournal.com/news/47-9-would-back-a-united-ireland-in-the-event-of-a-hard-brexit-1-8279946

Sinn Fein staying quietish on DUP/Brexit stuff. Is it because DUP's position makes a UI more likely?

James Brown · 07-12-2017 4:43pm

demfad wrote: »

Sinn Fein staying quietish on DUP/Brexit stuff. Is it because DUP's position makes a UI more likely?

I would say the DUP are well capable of looking foolish and choosing to cut their nose to spite the collective Northern Ireland/UK face re: Brexit.
May seems to be floundering.
Difficult balancing act for SF I'd imagine. If negotiations go south

it may be a loss for the occupied territories, but a win towards a move for a united Ireland.

Red_Wake · 07-12-2017 6:17pm

If they can't get over 50% support for a UI in the event of a hard Brexit, I don't know what it would take to get that magic 50%+1.

I assume hard brexit swells support for a UI significantly though, I may be wrong though.

Consonata · 07-12-2017 6:21pm

Red_Wake wrote: »

If they can't get over 50% support for a UI in the event of a hard Brexit, I don't know what it would take to get that magic 50%+1.

I assume hard brexit swells support for a UI significantly though, I may be wrong though.

The fact that its remotely close to 50% without any semblence of campaigning being done is fairly remarkable honestly. It would be fascinating to see what the poll would give if the EU gave a "Unification package" i.e money to invest in infrastructure and the health service in order to replace the services the North would lose out on when leaving the UK

Guy:Incognito · 07-12-2017 6:24pm

Consonata wrote: »

The fact that its remotely close to 50% without any semblence of campaigning being done is fairly remarkable honestly. It would be fascinating to see what the poll would give if the EU gave a "Unification package" i.e money to invest in infrastructure and the health service in order to replace the services the North would lose out on when leaving the UK

There's a 2nd country that needs to vote on it too..........

Jayop · 07-12-2017 6:26pm

That's a massive jump since the last time it was asked and it's a surprisingly high figure for me. I expected closer to 40 percent. The next stormont election or local election will be very telling.

LiamoSail · 07-12-2017 6:31pm

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

CroFag · 07-12-2017 6:37pm

Reunification would require austerity...
Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

I don't get it, isn't SF anti-austerity socialist party?

DUP are self hating Irish desperately wanting to be English, they need to become a minority in NI, the sooner the better for everybody.

Consonata · 07-12-2017 6:39pm

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

We can't afford a border either. Its just an argument of which is less painful economically. We wouldn't be having the discussion otherwise

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 7:34pm

Jayop wrote: »

That's a massive jump since the last time it was asked and it's a surprisingly high figure for me. I expected closer to 40 percent. The next stormont election or local election will be very telling.

Close to 60% disapprove of what the dup want and happy with the special staus.....this could potentially throw a lifeline to the UUP in a Westminster election and thus cause a locked Westminster? ?

Wonder how far the dup will push for an assembly rerun election on stormont talks....iirc if still an Impass. ..there must be another election

The_Valeyard · 07-12-2017 7:35pm

demfad wrote: »

Sinn Fein staying quietish on DUP/Brexit stuff. Is it because DUP's position makes a UI more likely?

DUP digging a big enough grave for themselves,
Sinn Fein just need to sit back and watch it happen.

Junkyard Tom · 07-12-2017 7:41pm

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically.

It wouldn't suddenly become Dublin's responsibility alone. The British and the EU would be required to help absorb the costs of a transition to a United Ireland over many years while the northeast was repaired and integrated.

Greybottle · 07-12-2017 7:43pm

The poll was commissioned by the SF group in the European Parliament. I'm always a bit wary of polls that are done by parties themselves, be they ( left, right, centre, ecological, libertarian etc.) who are promoting a particular agenda.

Does anybody have a link to the questions asked, especially the lead in questions?

Consonata · 07-12-2017 7:45pm

Greybottle wrote: »

The poll was commissioned by the SF group in the European Parliament. I'm always a bit wary of polls that are done by parties themselves, be they ( left, right, centre, ecological, libertarian etc.) who are promoting a particular agenda.

Does anybody have a link to the questions asked, especially the lead in questions?

What is meant by commissioned is, that it was paid for by the group. The poll wasn't done by them, it was done by LucidTalk, pretty much the only pollster who polls Northern Ireland.

blanch152 · 07-12-2017 7:54pm

Consonata wrote: »

What is meant by commissioned is, that it was paid for by the group. The poll wasn't done by them, it was done by LucidTalk, pretty much the only pollster who polls Northern Ireland.

When you commission a poll, you determine the questions, the order in which they are asked etc. I reckon I could get 60% support for a united Ireland up in the North. Have a go at these:

(1) Do you believe that people's welfare and income are the most important issues?

(2) Do you know that living standards in Northern Ireland are below those in the South and that unemployment is higher in the North?

(3) Do you understand that Brexit will bring economic difficulties to Northern Ireland and that ordinary people will suffer a further drop in living standards below those in the South?

(4) Are you aware that a hard border, as proposed by the DUP would increase the hardship for ordinary people in Northern Ireland?

(5) In the event that a hard Brexit resulted in severe economic difficulties for people in the North, would you be prepared to consider voting for a united Ireland if it meant that living standards would go back up.

In all seriousness, one-off polls outside the context of an actual referendum are hard to put any trust in. Asking people about a potential decision in the absence of any real thinking and discussion can throw up the strangest ideas. There is one common thread through all of the opinion polls about a united Ireland. Where the question is phrased in such a way as to mean a united Ireland would bring prosperity to the North, it does increase the support. However, nobody has been able to credibly explain how this would happen and how much Southern taxpayers would have to pay to make it a reality.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 8:02pm

blanch152 wrote: »

When you commission a poll, you determine the questions, the order in which they are asked etc. I reckon I could get 60% support for a united Ireland up in the North. Have a go at these:

(1) Do you believe that people's welfare and income are the most important issues?

(2) Do you know that living standards in Northern Ireland are below those in the South and that unemployment is higher in the North?

(3) Do you understand that Brexit will bring economic difficulties to Northern Ireland and that ordinary people will suffer a further drop in living standards below those in the South?

(4) Are you aware that a hard border, as proposed by the DUP would increase the hardship for ordinary people in Northern Ireland?

(5) In the event that a hard Brexit resulted in severe economic difficulties for people in the North, would you be prepared to consider voting for a united Ireland if it meant that living standards would go back up.

In all seriousness, one-off polls outside the context of an actual referendum are hard to put any trust in. Asking people about a potential decision in the absence of any real thinking and discussion can throw up the strangest ideas. There is one common thread through all of the opinion polls about a united Ireland. Where the question is phrased in such a way as to mean a united Ireland would bring prosperity to the North, it does increase the support. However, nobody has been able to credibly explain how this would happen and how much Southern taxpayers would have to pay to make it a realit

There polling data on brexit was virtually 100% accurate

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-majority-of-ni-voters-want-uk-to-remain-in-eu-1.2659936?mode=amp

Have you anything to imply LucidTalk will hold rubbish polls onto a demographic with a sky sales type script what you've written

Junkyard Tom · 07-12-2017 8:04pm

Remember too this poll is pre-Brexit fallout. There will be people answering the poll thinking that Brexit will make Britain great again.

The pro-UI numbers will go higher.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 8:06pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Remember too this poll is pre-Brexit fallout. There will be people answering the poll thinking that Brexit will make Britain great again.

The pro-UI numbers will go higher.

Indeed they seem to be taking the issue serious

LucidTalk are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and consequently all polling, polling methodologies, project management, and professional standards used by LucidTalk, have been authenticated by the BPC.

As well as the Poll results data and useful market research information obtained from each LucidTalk project it should be noted that as part of each project LucidTalk will have usually contacted over 1,000 people,

LOL at all those who'll cite their polls....but cry foul when it deosnt suit

:D

blanch152 · 07-12-2017 8:18pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Indeed they seem to be taking the issue serious

LucidTalk are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and consequently all polling, polling methodologies, project management, and professional standards used by LucidTalk, have been authenticated by the BPC.

As well as the Poll results data and useful market research information obtained from each LucidTalk project it should be noted that as part of each project LucidTalk will have usually contacted over 1,000 people,

LOL at all those who'll cite their polls....but cry foul when it deosnt suit :D

Again, it is not a poll conducted month after month with the same questions whereby you can establish trends.

It is a one-off poll with unique questions in a unique situation and needs to be treated with caution, that is all. Simple understanding of how polls work is all that is required.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 8:26pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Again, it is not a poll conducted month after month with the same questions whereby you can establish trends.

It is a one-off poll with unique questions in a unique situation and needs to be treated with caution, that is all. Simple understanding of how polls work is all that is required.

Meh...read as a rather poor attempt to rubbish it

2-3 more polls of similar results,a hard border (it's unavoidable realistically. ..otherwise there will alot of rich smugglers),and their will be no grounds to refuse a border poll

blanch152 · 07-12-2017 8:28pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Meh...read as a rather poor attempt to rubbish it

2-3 more polls of similar results,a hard border (it's unavoidable realistically. ..otherwise there will alot of rich smugglers),and their will be no grounds to refuse a border poll

If I were Secretary of State, I would want a motion passed at the Northern Ireland Assembly in favour of a border poll before I would consider it likely to pass. That would require two things, a functioning Assembly and cross-community support for the idea.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 8:33pm

blanch152 wrote: »

cross-community support for the idea.

In the gfa it Only requires sectary of state to think there's a chance it'll pass....but keep making up stuff

:pac:

markodaly · 07-12-2017 8:37pm

Our Dail politics is a little dysfunctional, not sure would the DUP and the more militant Shinners be much help here in that regard. It will not happen in my life for sure, we wont even pay for water, do you honestly think da people will pay an extra few grand a year to bail out the north?

blanch152 · 07-12-2017 8:38pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

In the gfa it Only requires sectary of state to think there's a chance it'll pass....but keep making up stuff :pac:

Yes, but he needs something objective to rely on. An Assembly vote for a border poll is the obvious trigger.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 8:41pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

In the gfa it Only requires sectary of state to think there's a chance it'll pass....but keep making up stuff :pac:

It's a bit stronger than 'a chance', I think it's something like 'likely'... too lazy to look up :pac:

Consonata wrote: »

We can't afford a border either. Its just an argument of which is less painful economically. We wouldn't be having the discussion otherwise

That's short term thinking. With a greater population will come greater opportunities for the Super Ireland.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 8:44pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

That's short term thinking. With a greater population will come greater opportunities for the Super Ireland.

In fact, can I start the campaign now to replace the term United Ireland with Super Ireland. :cool:

RustyNut · 07-12-2017 8:45pm

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc.

Seems like a small price to pay for a UI considering what has been sacrificed already.

markodaly · 07-12-2017 8:49pm

Anyway, our entire political system would have to be re-established, we would need to rejoin the commonwealth, we would need tens of billions of euro from the EU and doubt they would just hand it over.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 8:51pm

markodaly wrote: »

Anyway, our entire political system would have to be re-established, we would need to rejoin the commonwealth, we would need tens of billions of euro from the EU and doubt they would just hand it over.

The UK have signed up to handing over £50b handy enough. It's not mad money for the EU.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 8:52pm

markodaly wrote: »

Anyway, our entire political system would have to be re-established, we would need to rejoin the commonwealth,r.

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-12-2017 8:58pm

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 9:00pm

Reece Mysterious Albino wrote: »

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

These have to be done first to judge the possibility of a binding referendum.

FrancieBrady · 07-12-2017 9:01pm

Backs up the opinions in the Queens Uni poll.

I don't take a whole lot of notice of polls tbh but it does show the DUP would want to be careful.
They are opening the door for the UUP

Consonata · 07-12-2017 9:07pm

blanch152 wrote: »

When you commission a poll, you determine the questions, the order in which they are asked etc. I reckon I could get 60% support for a united Ireland up in the North. Have a go at these:

(1) Do you believe that people's welfare and income are the most important issues?

(2) Do you know that living standards in Northern Ireland are below those in the South and that unemployment is higher in the North?

(3) Do you understand that Brexit will bring economic difficulties to Northern Ireland and that ordinary people will suffer a further drop in living standards below those in the South?

(4) Are you aware that a hard border, as proposed by the DUP would increase the hardship for ordinary people in Northern Ireland?

(5) In the event that a hard Brexit resulted in severe economic difficulties for people in the North, would you be prepared to consider voting for a united Ireland if it meant that living standards would go back up.

In all seriousness, one-off polls outside the context of an actual referendum are hard to put any trust in. Asking people about a potential decision in the absence of any real thinking and discussion can throw up the strangest ideas. There is one common thread through all of the opinion polls about a united Ireland. Where the question is phrased in such a way as to mean a united Ireland would bring prosperity to the North, it does increase the support. However, nobody has been able to credibly explain how this would happen and how much Southern taxpayers would have to pay to make it a reality.

When you commission a poll, you pay for it to be done. Your interaction ends there. The pollster handles the language, the demos they poll etc. because they are a pollster. That is their job.

This really shouldn't be hard to understand.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 9:07pm

Er, hello people. I've heard the 47.9% figure mentioned today. What people seem to have missed so far is that the 47.9% figure is higher than those that would rather stay in the UK at 45.4%

6% said they didn't no.

And 0.7% said they'd either not vote or spoil.

SO, the 47.9% is actually higher than the % to keep the status quo.

Have you heard that Mr Brokenshire?

I think this poll will help soften the DUP's cough position.

Consonata · 07-12-2017 9:09pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Er, hello people. I've heard the 47.9% figure mentioned today. What people seem to have missed so far is that the 47.9% figure is higher than those that would rather stay in the UK at 45.4%

6% said they didn't no.

And 0.7% said they'd either not vote or spoil.

SO, the 47.9% is actually higher than the % to keep the status quo.

Have you heard that Mr Brokenshire?

I think this poll will help soften the DUP's cough position.

Give it a few more polls, and you'll see movement from the UK on this.

They would love to get rid of NI, they really do not give a dam, so long as they get the Brexit that pleases their voters.

RustyNut · 07-12-2017 9:14pm

Consonata wrote: »

Give it a few more polls, and you'll see movement from the UK on this.

They would love to get rid of NI, they really do not give a dam, so long as they get the Brexit that pleases their voters.

Would be a nice clean solution for everybody except our unionist brothers up north.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 9:16pm

LT.jpg

LT-1.jpg

Interesting figures here, it's not that Unionists have converted, it's just that the growing 'Nationalists' are likely to vote down traditional allegiances, which makes the poll more believable.

Now, did the pollsters get a representative Unionist/Nationalist sample?

Del.Monte · 07-12-2017 9:28pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

Is this why countries (Rwanda and Mozambique) which were never even part of the British Empire have joined the Commonwealth in recent years? Everything British is not bad - you should try saying that a couple of times before you go to sleep at night and you might become less blinkered.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 9:30pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Is this why countries (Rwanda and Mozambique) which were never even part of the British Empire have joined the Commonwealth in recent years? Everything British is not bad - you should try saying that a couple of times before you go to sleep at night and you might become less blinkered.

What has it to offer ireland?

PhoenixParker · 07-12-2017 9:40pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

LT.jpg

LT-1.jpg

Interesting figures here, it's not that Unionists have converted, it's just that the growing 'Nationalists' are likely to vote down traditional allegiances, which makes the poll more believable.

Now, did the pollsters get a representative Unionist/Nationalist sample?

Looks to me like it’s the “other” group who really sway things.
I wonder how they’re categorized, is it self identification or past voting history or how?

Seems to me that a unionist who is suddenly contemplating the possibility of voting for reunification might move themselves to the “other” category skewing the % in each camp wh3n it’s broken down.

07-12-2017 9:45pm

Reece Mysterious Albino wrote: »

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

Del.Monte · 07-12-2017 9:48pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

What has it to offer ireland?

In all honesty I don't know - the Commonwealth Games perhaps? As a disenfranchised Unionist who now only votes for Mick Wallace, Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth would not change my political leanings one iota, but some down here seem to think it would help sway Unionist opinion in favour of a UI.

markodaly · 07-12-2017 9:56pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

Maybe not to you but it will put Unionist minds at east. There will have be given something in return, otherwise we will just be as bad as them.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 9:57pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

In all honesty I don't know - the Commonwealth Games perhaps? As a disenfranchised Unionist who now only votes for Mick Wallace, Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth would not change my political leanings one iota, but some down here seem to think it would help sway Unionist opinion in favour of a UI.

I think it's a sop to em (and an insulting one) tbh

If the prospect of better education opportunities and increased levels of social spending to tackle poverty aren't enough...what is?

Vote with your head,not your heart......mick Wallace Is a very much under rated speaker btw✌

So is mattie McGrath. ..behind all that put on countryness (and corruption)...they do deos raise and articulate relatively good points

markodaly · 07-12-2017 10:06pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

I think it's a sop to em (and an insulting one) tbh

If the prospect of better education opportunities and increased levels of social spending to tackle poverty aren't enough...what is?

That is a rather odd assessment of the matter. A UI will educate the Unionism out of them, yes that will go down a treat up in the North.

Christ, have we learned nothing?

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 10:12pm

markodaly wrote: »

That is a rather odd assessment of the matter. A UI will educate the Unionism out of them, yes that will go down a treat up in the North.

Christ, have we learned nothing?

Nope...that's a rather blinkered reading of the post

Increased access to educational and 3rd level opportunities in the Republic will be available??
(Juat this week ireland was afaik top ranked country for literacy in primary schools in europe)

Increased spending on social problems will grearly benefit the poorest in society,

(rather remarkably it'll benefit working class loyalists the most a united ireland).....at no point is this considered educating unionism out of them.....but a blind person can see working class loyalists in the north aren't being represented by so called big house unionism....how a movement to represent them hasn't evloved is beyond me

markodaly · 07-12-2017 10:23pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Nope...that's a rather blinkered reading of the post

Increased access to educational and 3rd level opportunities in the Republic will be available??
(Juat this week ireland was afaik top ranked country for literacy in primary schools in europe)

Increased spending on social problems will grearly benefit the poorest in society,

(rather remarkably it'll benefit working class loyalists the most a united ireland).....at no point is this considered educating unionism out of them.....but a blind person can see working class loyalists in the north aren't being represented by so called big house unionism....how a movement to represent them hasn't evloved is beyond me

Ok, lots of goodies here.

Free 3rd level education (but mind that registration fee of a few grand a year).
Ireland does well in reading but very very poor in Math and Science, the UK do better there.
More spending on the Social Welfare, great but who will pay for this?

No one when they talk about a United Ireland talk about the means and ways to acheive it. Its like Brexit, a great idea at first until you look at the details whereby it becomes a cluster ****.

A UI will set the Republic back 2 decades of economic growth. Not an easy sell.

Regarding the Unionist population, what is in it for them besides these 'goodies'. The idea the Irish political system will just continue on as normal, to be ruled by the executive from a Dublin like now, is fantasy stuff. If a UI is going to work, we will have to give something back to the Unionists and no one knows what that is. I suggested rejoining the commonwealth. A price worth paying if it works.

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

Comments