47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

blanch152

Avatar MIA wrote: »

It's a bit stronger than 'a chance', I think it's something like 'likely'... too lazy to look up :pac:



That's short term thinking. With a greater population will come greater opportunities for the Super Ireland.

https://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/attached_files/Pdf%20files/NIPeaceAgreement.pdf

"2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be
part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. "


To appear likely to him, it will surely require some empirical evidence rather than a series of opinion polls. A nationalist majority in the Assembly that passes a motion for a border poll would seem empirical evidence to me.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I've been asking this question for years on boards.ie and nobody has come up with anything approaching a cogent answer. Why? Because it's game over when a pro-UI vote passes there is nothing for Unionists to kick off about.

At this very moment the DUP (in their own eyes mind) are fighting Theresa May to get to stay in the union.
It's gas that they haven't got the message contained (not very subliminally) in the GFA.

blanch152

Rick Shaw wrote: »

I've heard this before and can never get my head round this line of thinking.

How might such a campaign pan out?

Would the uvf bomb Irish government facilities/ personnel or citizens in an attempt to em, drive them out back to Ireland?

Would loyalists take a campaign of violence to the UK mainland in an effort to get the Brits to invade Ireland again and reinstate British rule in the six counties?

This needs discussed.

A campaign of civil disobedience doesn't need violence like the Provos, just ask Paul Murphy for tips.

tomwaterford

blanch152 wrote: »

A campaign of civil disobedience doesn't need violence like the Provos, just ask Paul Murphy for tips.

Provos are gone with 20 odd years

This may not be to your liking....but they are irrelevant to this discussion....noone else has brought them into a otherwise interesting thread...which you have done twice now?


Brexit is the only show in town...watching Britain slowly tear itself apart in a fashion the pira could only dream about Is brilliant

LiamoSail

tomwaterford wrote: »

There will also be massively increased revenue streams from vrt aswel

A years worth of the additional VRT probably won't cover the additional cost of social welfare payments for a week

tomwaterford

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/attached_files/Pdf%20files/NIPeaceAgreement.pdf

"2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be
part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. "


To appear likely to him, it will surely require some empirical evidence rather than a series of opinion polls. A nationalist majority in the Assembly that passes a motion for a border poll would seem empirical evidence to me.

Or we could go by census results and along string of polls in the continued absence of stormont?

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

A campaign of civil disobedience doesn't need violence like the Provos, just ask Paul Murphy for tips.

Apart from the Provo bogeymen being away now for more than 20 years, I was responding to another poster who was pondering a scenario where the uvf (or any other loyalist paramilitary group) might, and I quote

That's not to mention the possibility of the likes of the UVF etc going to war over it.

Now unless war in this context referred to a war of words, I don't know what other way anyone could have responded/queried it?

Perhaps you would like to pull them up on their suggestion though, when you've finished with yet anothe Provo rant, that have and prob always will remain all too common a trait.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

A campaign of civil disobedience.

To what ends?

Mr.Nice Guy

Consonata wrote: »

The fact that its remotely close to 50% without any semblence of campaigning being done is fairly remarkable honestly. It would be fascinating to see what the poll would give if the EU gave a "Unification package" i.e money to invest in infrastructure and the health service in order to replace the services the North would lose out on when leaving the UK

I believe Scottish independence a few years before their Indy referendum was polling around the high twenties, mid-thirties in percentage points. When it was presented as something tangible and details were provided for it, the support for it didn't diminish, but grew. I see no reason why a similar thing can't happen with regards Irish unity.

The fact that support for it is quite steady despite it remaining something vague and undefined bodes well for the pro-unity argument.

The direction of travel is towards a reunified Ireland and I would say the events of the last sixteen odd months are a great reminder of why it should happen, and why events that affect this island should be taken by the people who live and have made their home within this island, whether they identify as Irish, British, Polish, or whatever.

Consonata

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I believe Scottish independence a few years before their Indy referendum was polling around the high twenties, mid-thirties in percentage points. When it was presented as something tangible and details were provided for it, the support for it didn't diminish, but grew. I see no reason why a similar thing can't happen with regards Irish unity.

The fact that support for it is quite steady despite it remaining something vague and undefined bodes well for the pro-unity argument.

The direction of travel is towards a reunified Ireland and I would say the events of the last sixteen odd months are a great reminder of why it should happen, and why events that affect this island should be taken by the people who live and have made their home within this island, whether they identify as Irish, British, Polish, or whatever.

I would like to agree with you but I also think the Irish case is different. Scotland does not have a recent history of sectarian violence like the north does.

I do think that there is some movement that can be made with a good offer that can be made to the North, but it won't be as radical a swing as the scottish one was

maccored

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

massively jumping the gun. A UI needs discussion first, considering no-one knows yet just how a united ireland might be achieved. The idea that the south takes over responsibility for the north is a bit naive

Red_Wake

maccored wrote: »

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

massively jumping the gun.  A UI needs discussion first, considering no-one knows yet just how a united ireland might be achieved.  The idea that the south takes over responsibility for the north is a bit naive

I actually  agree with maccored, any move to a UI needs to have a large amount of discussion across a number of sectors. There's no point in joining the two countries if NO is being taken on as a ward of the Republic.

recedite

Consonata wrote: »

The fact that its remotely close to 50% without any semblence of campaigning being done is fairly remarkable honestly. It would be fascinating to see what the poll would give if the EU gave a "Unification package" i.e money to invest in infrastructure and the health service in order to replace the services the North would lose out on when leaving the UK

Considering how close the General Election results were, throwing the "hard brexit" in as an issue seems to have made no difference at all.

But the idea that the EU could chip in some special solidarity funding to a UI is plausible. The problem is, I don't think they could ever suggest it in advance. The EC could only announce something like that "after the fact". It would be far too politically explosive; it would be basically plotting a regime change in a sovereign country.

Jayop

recedite wrote: »

Considering how close the General Election results were, throwing the "hard brexit" in as an issue seems to have made no difference at all.

But the idea that the EU could chip in some special solidarity funding to a UI is plausible. The problem is, I don't think they could ever suggest it in advance. The EC could only announce something like that "after the fact". It would be far too politically explosive; it would be basically plotting a regime change in a sovereign country.

You're not comparing like for like. Election results and poll results for support for a UI don't have an exact correlation. In October there was only a third of people said they would vote for a UI if a poll was held tomorrow.

Now, in almost every poll for a UI and in almost every election for a long time the numbers have been creeping up, but this is the most significant jump.

In the most recent census the number of people identifying as Catholic was just over 40%, so if this poll data is accurate then in the event of a hard border it's not just catholics (the traditional UI support base) who seem to be open to it.

Avatar MIA

Jayop wrote: »

You're not comparing like for like. Election results and poll results for support for a UI don't have an exact correlation. In October there was only a third of people said they would vote for a UI if a poll was held tomorrow.

Now, in almost every poll for a UI and in almost every election for a long time the numbers have been creeping up, but this is the most significant jump.

In the most recent census the number of people identifying as Catholic was just over 40%, so if this poll data is accurate then in the event of a hard border it's not just catholics (the traditional UI support base) who seem to be open to it.

No real increase from Protestants though. It's the Catholics having the courage of their convictions and the "new" comers quiet liking the EU relationship.

The Protestants are no longer in the majority.

All Teresa May had to say to Arlene was, "the alternative is a hard brexit, how you liking them apples now after this poll?"

recedite

Jayop wrote: »

In the most recent census the number of people identifying as Catholic was just over 40%, so if this poll data is accurate then in the event of a hard border it's not just catholics (the traditional UI support base) who seem to be open to it.

Saying "just over 40%" for RC is a bit misleading though.

Table 9 indicates 43.8% in 2001, rising to 45.1% in 2011.
For protestants, 53.1% in 2001, dropping to 48.4% in 2011.

If those trends/trajectories are consistent, then the two major religious groupings should be roughly at parity by now. And that would correspond more or less with the 2017 election results.

Obviously there is more to it than just religion, so we have to accept that the economy is going to be the deciding factor from now on.

A hard Brexit, a poor economic outlook in the UK, and the possibility of new trade deals signed by Britain to import low tariff chlorinated chicken and Brazilian beef would be very bad for NI's unionist farmers.
In this context, the promise of an ongoing special subvention from Brussels would probably swing the balance towards a UI.

As it happens, from the news today it seems we are looking at a soft Brexit, which may limit the kind of trade deals the British can negotiate with other countries outside the EU (similar standards and all that).
And I think the EU would remain tight lipped about the possibility of any money, even if it was available.
So all that indicates no immediate change to the status quo.

Still, we are at a pivotal moment in history IMO. Everything may look static, but the pendulum could swing at any moment, leading to dramatic change.

Jayop

Avatar MIA wrote: »

No real increase from Protestants though. It's the Catholics having the courage of their convictions and the "new" comers quiet liking the EU relationship.

The Protestants are no longer in the majority.

All Teresa May had to say to Arlene was, "the alternative is a hard brexit, how you liking them apples now after this poll?"

No-one is in the majority anymore. There's almost exactly the same amount of Catholics and Protestants and then about 15/20% other/no religion. If 47% of people want a UI in the event of a hard brexit and only 40% are Catholics then at least 7% is coming from elsewhere. This is a very healthy situation and one that if all demographic trends keep on going as they have been for decades will lead to a slim Catholic majority, 30% roughly Protestant minority and the rest made up of others. Should 7% of others still want a UI then it will happen as that will be an overwhelming majority.

Jayop

recedite wrote: »

Saying "just over 40%" for RC is a bit misleading though.

Table 9 indicates 43.8% in 2001, rising to 45.1% in 2011.
For protestants, 53.1% in 2001, dropping to 48.4% in 2011.

If those trends/trajectories are consistent, then the two major religious groupings should be roughly at parity by now. And that would correspond more or less with the 2017 election results.

Obviously there is more to it than just religion, so we have to accept that the economy is going to be the deciding factor from now on.

A hard Brexit, a poor economic outlook in the UK, and the possibility of new trade deals signed by Britain to import low tariff chlorinated chicken and Brazilian beef would be very bad for NI's unionist farmers.
In this context, the promise of an ongoing special subvention from Brussels would probably swing the balance towards a UI.

As it happens, from the news today it seems we are looking at a soft Brexit, which may limit the kind of trade deals the British can negotiate with other countries outside the EU (similar standards and all that).
And I think the EU would remain tight lipped about the possibility of any money, even if it was available.
So all that indicates no immediate change to the status quo.

Still, we are at a pivotal moment in history IMO. Everything may look static, but the pendulum could swing at any moment, leading to dramatic change.

Wasn't trying to be misleading. I got my figures from this...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Northern_Ireland

Where it says 40.8% Catholic in 2011. I don't know where the difference is coming from and in these debates I always used the wiki figures from all census as they're easier to access.

recedite

Jayop wrote: »

Wasn't trying to be misleading. I got my figures from this...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Northern_Ireland

Where it says 40.8% Catholic in 2011. I don't know where the difference is coming from and in these debates I always used the wiki figures from all census as they're easier to access.

The difference is due to the religion question being optional, and lots of people not answering it, which leads to the lower % figures for both groups. But when the " Religion Brought Up In" results are added in, the higher figures come in for both.
But I think we both agree they must be roughly equal in numbers, at this stage.

Avatar MIA

Jayop wrote: »

No-one is in the majority anymore. There's almost exactly the same amount of Catholics and Protestants and then about 15/20% other/no religion. If 47% of people want a UI in the event of a hard brexit and only 40% are Catholics then at least 7% is coming from elsewhere. This is a very healthy situation and one that if all demographic trends keep on going as they have been for decades will lead to a slim Catholic majority, 30% roughly Protestant minority and the rest made up of others. Should 7% of others still want a UI then it will happen as that will be an overwhelming majority.

Look at the second graphic I posted. The poll doesn't mention Catholic and Protestant. It mentions Nationalist and Unionist. The big change is the courage of convictions on the Nationalist side that vote SF and SDLP and maybe Alliance, but didn't support a UI poll.

The other big shift is the non aligned swinging massively to a UI.

arleitiss

Sorry for stupid question but I am not into politics too much but today on radio I heard there will be no hard border between ROI and NI.

So how does that work? I mean EU generally has strong control who enters European Union countries and who doesn't, what stops somebody in UK who just arrived say yesterday via some dodgy ways living illegally there - travelling to NI, and then entering Ireland (essentially easy way into European Union country).

Doesn't that make EU a waterbaloon with hole in it? (where you can freely come and go whenever you wish?)


That's one part of this deal I dont get.

Wheeliebin30

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Apart from the Provo bogeymen being away now for more than 20 years, I was responding to another poster who was pondering a scenario where the uvf (or any other loyalist paramilitary group) might, and I quote
Now unless war in this context referred to a war of words, I don't know what other way anyone could have responded/queried it?

Perhaps you would like to pull them up on their suggestion though, when you've finished with yet anothe Provo rant, that have and prob always will remain all too common a trait.

How are they away 20 years when one of their top boys was shot dead last year???

Wheeliebin30

maccored wrote: »

massively jumping the gun. A UI needs discussion first, considering no-one knows yet just how a united ireland might be achieved. The idea that the south takes over responsibility for the north is a bit naive

There is no government currently in the north yet you think things might get better if there is a united Ireland?

Jayop

recedite wrote: »

The difference is due to the religion question being optional, and lots of people not answering it, which leads to the lower % figures for both groups. But when the " Religion Brought Up In" results are added in, the higher figures come in for both.
But I think we both agree they must be roughly equal in numbers, at this stage.

Oh absolutely, 1% at most between them I reckon and the next census in a few years could see that either closed entirely or even roles reversed.

Jayop

arleitiss wrote: »

Sorry for stupid question but I am not into politics too much but today on radio I heard there will be no hard border between ROI and NI.

So how does that work? I mean EU generally has strong control who enters European Union countries and who doesn't, what stops somebody in UK who just arrived say yesterday via some dodgy ways living illegally there - travelling to NI, and then entering Ireland (essentially easy way into European Union country).

Doesn't that make EU a waterbaloon with hole in it? (where you can freely come and go whenever you wish?)


That's one part of this deal I dont get.

Essentially it shouldn't happen, but the fact Ireland is an island and travel to mainland europe has to be by air or sea means they'll probably just pretend it's not happening. YOu take a flight from Ireland to Spain for example you still have to go through passport checks at the Spanish side and I expect this is where they expect/hope to catch illegals.

It's a bit messy, but it probably has to be given the unique situation.


Edit: And realistically there's still going to be far more illegals coming in across other land borders to non-EU countries and across the Med than across the border at Lifford.

Mongfinder General

Crunch the numbers any way you like. Unfortunately the loons sitting in council estates in Portadown and East Belfast are so thick that they'll believe the rhetoric of their political masters if they feel that power is slipping from their grasp. They'll cause mayhem in the face of any weakening of NI sovereignty.

Here we go

I've no problem with a united ireland as long as it follows the path set out in tgfa and there's an honest and detailed debate up north in what it means no subvention from the uk no nhs and 1000 different other things that I probably cant even think about we may find once the reality is put out there that even republicans will vote to stay part of the uk as Scotland did it's so more then just nationality

PhoenixParker

arleitiss wrote: »

Sorry for stupid question but I am not into politics too much but today on radio I heard there will be no hard border between ROI and NI.

So how does that work? I mean EU generally has strong control who enters European Union countries and who doesn't, what stops somebody in UK who just arrived say yesterday via some dodgy ways living illegally there - travelling to NI, and then entering Ireland (essentially easy way into European Union country).

Doesn't that make EU a waterbaloon with hole in it? (where you can freely come and go whenever you wish?)


That's one part of this deal I dont get.

I don't think this aspect has changed at all.
Ireland and the U.K. aren't part of Schengen and while they have a common travel area with no border checks, a visa for the U.K. doesn't entitle you to visit or work in Ireland or vice versa.

We check people's right to work when they get a legitimate job, that doesn't change. The important stuff, the right to work is already protected with nationality checks and the need to acquire a pps when starting a job.

There are passport controls to visit schengen countries, that doesn't change so the EU in general is grand.

There will be illegal immigrants and visa abuse from people with visas that only entitle them to visit/study/work in the UK trying to come and live here, but we already have that situation. Nothing changes.

Jayop

Here we go wrote: »

I've no problem with a united ireland as long as it follows the path set out in tgfa and there's an honest and detailed debate up north in what it means no subvention from the uk no nhs and 1000 different other things that I probably cant even think about we may find once the reality is put out there that even republicans will vote to stay part of the uk as Scotland did it's so more then just nationality

No NHS is the big one that's always brought up. The fact is that anyone who's not working in Ireland gets a medical card so that's better than the NHS. The Tories are systematically destroying what was once a proud beacon of healthcare so it's not the big deal it once was. The fact is that life expectancy in the south is a fair bit longer so the healthservices while not always brilliant don't compare too badly against NI.

1000's of other things? I can't think of too many. Normally all the things that are listed are completely spurious. Another one mentioned is bin charges, yeah but we don't pay massive rates down here. These things are exaggerated beyond belief. Wages are much higher in the Republic and the quality of life is much higher.

So what do they really lose? Cheap vodka in Asda and that's about it.

Avatar MIA

Jayop wrote: »

Essentially it shouldn't happen, but the fact Ireland is an island and travel to mainland europe has to be by air or sea means they'll probably just pretend it's not happening. YOu take a flight from Ireland to Spain for example you still have to go through passport checks at the Spanish side and I expect this is where they expect/hope to catch illegals.

Just thinking Leo should have gone Balls Out and got Ireland to sign up to Schengen, so the UK would have had to join too :pac: That would nearly have evened out Cromwell