47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 07:51PM

markodaly wrote: »

Anyway, our entire political system would have to be re-established, we would need to rejoin the commonwealth, we would need tens of billions of euro from the EU and doubt they would just hand it over.

The UK have signed up to handing over £50b handy enough. It's not mad money for the EU.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 07:52PM

markodaly wrote: »

Anyway, our entire political system would have to be re-established, we would need to rejoin the commonwealth,r.

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-12-2017 07:58PM

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 08:00PM

Reece Mysterious Albino wrote: »

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

These have to be done first to judge the possibility of a binding referendum.

FrancieBrady · 07-12-2017 08:01PM

Backs up the opinions in the Queens Uni poll.

I don't take a whole lot of notice of polls tbh but it does show the DUP would want to be careful.
They are opening the door for the UUP

Consonata · 07-12-2017 08:07PM

blanch152 wrote: »

When you commission a poll, you determine the questions, the order in which they are asked etc. I reckon I could get 60% support for a united Ireland up in the North. Have a go at these:

(1) Do you believe that people's welfare and income are the most important issues?

(2) Do you know that living standards in Northern Ireland are below those in the South and that unemployment is higher in the North?

(3) Do you understand that Brexit will bring economic difficulties to Northern Ireland and that ordinary people will suffer a further drop in living standards below those in the South?

(4) Are you aware that a hard border, as proposed by the DUP would increase the hardship for ordinary people in Northern Ireland?

(5) In the event that a hard Brexit resulted in severe economic difficulties for people in the North, would you be prepared to consider voting for a united Ireland if it meant that living standards would go back up.

In all seriousness, one-off polls outside the context of an actual referendum are hard to put any trust in. Asking people about a potential decision in the absence of any real thinking and discussion can throw up the strangest ideas. There is one common thread through all of the opinion polls about a united Ireland. Where the question is phrased in such a way as to mean a united Ireland would bring prosperity to the North, it does increase the support. However, nobody has been able to credibly explain how this would happen and how much Southern taxpayers would have to pay to make it a reality.

When you commission a poll, you pay for it to be done. Your interaction ends there. The pollster handles the language, the demos they poll etc. because they are a pollster. That is their job.

This really shouldn't be hard to understand.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 08:07PM

Er, hello people. I've heard the 47.9% figure mentioned today. What people seem to have missed so far is that the 47.9% figure is higher than those that would rather stay in the UK at 45.4%

6% said they didn't no.

And 0.7% said they'd either not vote or spoil.

SO, the 47.9% is actually higher than the % to keep the status quo.

Have you heard that Mr Brokenshire?

I think this poll will help soften the DUP's cough position.

Consonata · 07-12-2017 08:09PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Er, hello people. I've heard the 47.9% figure mentioned today. What people seem to have missed so far is that the 47.9% figure is higher than those that would rather stay in the UK at 45.4%

6% said they didn't no.

And 0.7% said they'd either not vote or spoil.

SO, the 47.9% is actually higher than the % to keep the status quo.

Have you heard that Mr Brokenshire?

I think this poll will help soften the DUP's cough position.

Give it a few more polls, and you'll see movement from the UK on this.

They would love to get rid of NI, they really do not give a dam, so long as they get the Brexit that pleases their voters.

RustyNut · 07-12-2017 08:14PM

Consonata wrote: »

Give it a few more polls, and you'll see movement from the UK on this.

They would love to get rid of NI, they really do not give a dam, so long as they get the Brexit that pleases their voters.

Would be a nice clean solution for everybody except our unionist brothers up north.

Avatar MIA · 07-12-2017 08:16PM

LT.jpg

LT-1.jpg

Interesting figures here, it's not that Unionists have converted, it's just that the growing 'Nationalists' are likely to vote down traditional allegiances, which makes the poll more believable.

Now, did the pollsters get a representative Unionist/Nationalist sample?

Del.Monte · 07-12-2017 08:28PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

Is this why countries (Rwanda and Mozambique) which were never even part of the British Empire have joined the Commonwealth in recent years? Everything British is not bad - you should try saying that a couple of times before you go to sleep at night and you might become less blinkered.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 08:30PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

Is this why countries (Rwanda and Mozambique) which were never even part of the British Empire have joined the Commonwealth in recent years? Everything British is not bad - you should try saying that a couple of times before you go to sleep at night and you might become less blinkered.

What has it to offer ireland?

PhoenixParker · 07-12-2017 08:40PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

LT.jpg

LT-1.jpg

Interesting figures here, it's not that Unionists have converted, it's just that the growing 'Nationalists' are likely to vote down traditional allegiances, which makes the poll more believable.

Now, did the pollsters get a representative Unionist/Nationalist sample?

Looks to me like it’s the “other” group who really sway things.
I wonder how they’re categorized, is it self identification or past voting history or how?

Seems to me that a unionist who is suddenly contemplating the possibility of voting for reunification might move themselves to the “other” category skewing the % in each camp wh3n it’s broken down.

07-12-2017 08:45PM

Reece Mysterious Albino wrote: »

This poll only asked 1,000 people, come back when they multiple this sample group, by about x6,500 fold.

Del.Monte · 07-12-2017 08:48PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

What has it to offer ireland?

In all honesty I don't know - the Commonwealth Games perhaps? As a disenfranchised Unionist who now only votes for Mick Wallace, Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth would not change my political leanings one iota, but some down here seem to think it would help sway Unionist opinion in favour of a UI.

markodaly · 07-12-2017 08:56PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Where's logic behind this

The commonwealth has nothing to offer the 21st century

Maybe not to you but it will put Unionist minds at east. There will have be given something in return, otherwise we will just be as bad as them.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 08:57PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

In all honesty I don't know - the Commonwealth Games perhaps? As a disenfranchised Unionist who now only votes for Mick Wallace, Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth would not change my political leanings one iota, but some down here seem to think it would help sway Unionist opinion in favour of a UI.

I think it's a sop to em (and an insulting one) tbh

If the prospect of better education opportunities and increased levels of social spending to tackle poverty aren't enough...what is?

Vote with your head,not your heart......mick Wallace Is a very much under rated speaker btw✌

So is mattie McGrath. ..behind all that put on countryness (and corruption)...they do deos raise and articulate relatively good points

markodaly · 07-12-2017 09:06PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

I think it's a sop to em (and an insulting one) tbh

If the prospect of better education opportunities and increased levels of social spending to tackle poverty aren't enough...what is?

That is a rather odd assessment of the matter. A UI will educate the Unionism out of them, yes that will go down a treat up in the North.

Christ, have we learned nothing?

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 09:12PM

markodaly wrote: »

That is a rather odd assessment of the matter. A UI will educate the Unionism out of them, yes that will go down a treat up in the North.

Christ, have we learned nothing?

Nope...that's a rather blinkered reading of the post

Increased access to educational and 3rd level opportunities in the Republic will be available??
(Juat this week ireland was afaik top ranked country for literacy in primary schools in europe)

Increased spending on social problems will grearly benefit the poorest in society,

(rather remarkably it'll benefit working class loyalists the most a united ireland).....at no point is this considered educating unionism out of them.....but a blind person can see working class loyalists in the north aren't being represented by so called big house unionism....how a movement to represent them hasn't evloved is beyond me

markodaly · 07-12-2017 09:23PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Nope...that's a rather blinkered reading of the post

Increased access to educational and 3rd level opportunities in the Republic will be available??
(Juat this week ireland was afaik top ranked country for literacy in primary schools in europe)

Increased spending on social problems will grearly benefit the poorest in society,

(rather remarkably it'll benefit working class loyalists the most a united ireland).....at no point is this considered educating unionism out of them.....but a blind person can see working class loyalists in the north aren't being represented by so called big house unionism....how a movement to represent them hasn't evloved is beyond me

Ok, lots of goodies here.

Free 3rd level education (but mind that registration fee of a few grand a year).
Ireland does well in reading but very very poor in Math and Science, the UK do better there.
More spending on the Social Welfare, great but who will pay for this?

No one when they talk about a United Ireland talk about the means and ways to acheive it. Its like Brexit, a great idea at first until you look at the details whereby it becomes a cluster ****.

A UI will set the Republic back 2 decades of economic growth. Not an easy sell.

Regarding the Unionist population, what is in it for them besides these 'goodies'. The idea the Irish political system will just continue on as normal, to be ruled by the executive from a Dublin like now, is fantasy stuff. If a UI is going to work, we will have to give something back to the Unionists and no one knows what that is. I suggested rejoining the commonwealth. A price worth paying if it works.

FrancieBrady · 07-12-2017 09:28PM

I genuinely feel sorry for moderate unionists this week. I know many.
Once again, the government they look to as protector of their interests was ready to sign them away(in their eyes) but for a phonecalls.

I think a lot of them will have noticed the difference in the demeanour and restrained rethoric of the Dublin team and the tired old redundant vitriol of those politically representing unionism.

Walls are tumbling.

Consonata · 07-12-2017 09:31PM

markodaly wrote: »

Ok, lots of goodies here.

Free 3rd level education (but mind that registration fee of a few grand a year).
Ireland does well in reading but very very poor in Math and Science, the UK do better there.
More spending on the Social Welfare, great but who will pay for this?

No one when they talk about a United Ireland talk about the means and ways to acheive it. Its like Brexit, a great idea at first until you look at the details whereby it becomes a cluster ****.

A UI will set the Republic back 2 decades of economic growth. Not an easy sell.

Regarding the Unionist population, what is in it for them besides these 'goodies'. The idea the Irish political system will just continue on as normal, to be ruled by the executive from a Dublin like now, is fantasy stuff. If a UI is going to work, we will have to give something back to the Unionists and no one knows what that is. I suggested rejoining the commonwealth. A price worth paying if it works.

It can be a success if the UK and the EU give enough money to make it one. The Belfast - Dublin - Cork economic corridor could be exceptionally strong if given the right investment.

tomwaterford · 07-12-2017 09:33PM

markodaly wrote: »

Ok, lots of goodies here.

Free 3rd level education (but mind that registration fee of a few grand a year).
Ireland does well in reading but very very poor in Math and Science, the UK do better there.
More spending on the Social Welfare, great but who will pay for this?

No one when they talk about a United Ireland talk about the means and ways to acheive it. Its like Brexit, a great idea at first until you look at the details whereby it becomes a cluster ****.

A UI will set the Republic back 2 decades of economic growth. Not an easy sell.

Regarding the Unionist population, what is in it for them besides these 'goodies'. The idea the Irish political system will just continue on as normal, to be ruled by the executive from a Dublin like now, is fantasy stuff. If a UI is going to work, we will have to give something back to the Unionists and no one knows what that is. I suggested rejoining the commonwealth. A price worth paying if it works.

There has been no impact assessment of a united Ireland. ...all this talk of 2 lost decades is just that...talk??

There will also be massively increased revenue streams from vrt aswel

How is being ruled from Dublin a bus ride away from anywhere in the 6 counties any different to being ruled from Westminster....looks to me....you wanting to throw them all sorts of political sobs (seriously wtf is so good about a commonwealth...everyone says join etc....what benefit deos it hold for the 6 counties now being in it???)without them even asking for it?.

Also there is a lesson here for a united Ireland referendum.....it shouldn't be a blind walk in the dark like brexit

LiamoSail · 07-12-2017 09:48PM

RustyNut wrote: »

Seems like a small price to pay for a UI considering what has been sacrificed already.

Depends on your priorities.

In terms of health care, education, welfare, housing, taxes, employment, tourism, security and policing, we'd all be better off as is. The cost of reunification would be a huge drain on resources intended for/derived from each.

That's not to mention the possibility of the likes of the UVF etc going to war over it. Additionally there's the social issues, specifically further opening the divide between communities which has been slowly closing over the years. May as well point out too that even in this, the best of modern times for NI, the country can't even sustain its own parliament.

I'm not seeing what benefits reunification brings that outweighs these issues.

McMurphy · 07-12-2017 10:01PM

LiamoSail wrote: »

Depends on your priorities.

In terms of health care, education, welfare, housing, taxes, employment, tourism, security and policing, we'd all be better off as is. The cost of reunification would be a huge drain on resources intended for/derived from each.

That's not to mention the possibility of the likes of the UVF etc going to war over it. Additionally there's the social issues, specifically further opening the divide between communities which has been slowly closing over the years. May as well point out too that even in this, the best of modern times for NI, the country can't even sustain its own parliament.

I'm not seeing what benefits reunification brings that outweighs these issues.

I've heard this before and can never get my head round this line of thinking.

How might such a campaign pan out?

Would the uvf bomb Irish government facilities/ personnel or citizens in an attempt to em, drive them out back to Ireland?

Would loyalists take a campaign of violence to the UK mainland in an effort to get the Brits to invade Ireland again and reinstate British rule in the six counties?

This needs discussed.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 07-12-2017 10:13PM

The best way for a borderless Ireland to work going forward is to guarantee in law all the main institutions of the North for at least a very long time (50+ years) while also having London still in the picture. The PSNI is an armed police force with decades of experience dealing with sectarian murder squads, our Gardai are not even armed! They would have to be run separately, but cooperatively in the long term. The same goes for how the judiciary is set up in the North. Welfare would be paid at different rates for the medium term. And other services like the fire and ambulance would need to stay as it is. Same goes for how places like Queens University is run, or the Protestant, Catholic and Private schools are governed and operated up there.

All the Republic's parties agree that we don't want a border. But deep down there is no way that Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Labour and maybe even Sinn Fein want 30+ DUP TD's in the Dail (not that they would actually join it anyway). Having Stormant up and running is the only realistic way that Northern Ireland can be governed peacefully. And having Stormont running their own local affairs on a borderless island, within the European single market, under the umbrella leadership of Dublin, London and Brussels really is a way that Northern Ireland can flourish into the future.

The norths future is in Europe, and with a borderless Ireland. That is the only sensible way forward for everyone on this island.

LiamoSail · 07-12-2017 10:17PM

Rick Shaw wrote: »

I've heard this before and can never get my head round this line of thinking.

How might such a campaign pan out?

Would the uvf bomb Irish government facilities/ personnel or citizens in an attempt to em, drive them out back to Ireland?

Would loyalists take a campaign of violence to the UK mainland in an effort to get the Brits to invade Ireland again and reinstate British rule in the six counties?

This needs discussed.

I don't know and won't pretend to have any insight whatsoever into their likely reaction. I mentioned it as a possibility on the basis of terrorist organisations tending to react to such dramatic changes in stark contrast to their ideals.

There's that mural as you come off the dual carriageway at Mount Vernon; "Prepared for peace, ready for war". I won't claim to know how serious their threat is, but I think it would be naive to dismiss it as a concern

markodaly · 07-12-2017 10:21PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

There will also be massively increased revenue streams from vrt aswel

From VRT? How?

How is being ruled from Dublin a bus ride away from anywhere in the 6 counties any different to being ruled from Westminster

Well if that is your justification for it, no wonder most people are against it.

blanch152 · 07-12-2017 10:24PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

If the prospect of better education opportunities and increased levels of social spending to tackle poverty aren't enough...what is?

That wasn't enough for the Provos in the 1970s, why would it persuade unionists of today?

Junkyard Tom · 07-12-2017 10:24PM

Rick Shaw wrote: »

This needs discussed.

I've been asking this question for years on boards.ie and nobody has come up with anything approaching a cogent answer. Why? Because it's game over when a pro-UI vote passes there is nothing for Unionists to kick off about.

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

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