47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

An Ciarraioch

As the comments below this article state, calls for a "civic unionism" have been around since the Terence O'Neill era, and it's highly unlikely that the DUP would ever move in that direction:

http://eamonnmallie.com/2017/12/lifting-siege-new-unionism-new-northern-ireland-philip-smith-ulster-unionist/

AnGaelach

Has anyone the slightest clue what Leo means by Dublin wanting a meaningful role in the North if Stormont isn't back up and running? I find it quite unlikely that the Conservatives will give any ground to us on northern issues. Fine Gael has definitely replaced SF/FF as the main proponents of Irish interests north and south of the border in this.

An Ciarraioch

AnGaelach wrote: »

Has anyone the slightest clue what Leo means by Dublin wanting a meaningful role in the North if Stormont isn't back up and running? I find it quite unlikely that the Conservatives will give any ground to us on northern issues. Fine Gael has definitely replaced SF/FF as the main proponents of Irish interests north and south of the border in this.

Mostly the Intergovernmental Conference - far from joint authority, more civil servants from both countries administering a limited range of issues, and fully GFA-compliant.

An Ciarraioch

60% of Southerners would back unity even with a €9b annual cost:

https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/28/Support-for-a-united-Ireland-dramatically-increases

tomwaterford

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

60% of Southerners would back unity even with a €9b annual cost:

https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/28/Support-for-a-united-Ireland-dramatically-increases

40% of southerners would still abandon our fellow countrymen and women in the 6 counties



I wonder how the next poll will show for the north.....a similar result and included the population of nationlists displaced living in the Republic and it'll be damn close to the 50%+1

All will be needed is to like brexit have the remain vote be lazy/not bothered vote and they could damn nearly pull this off.....if stormont reelection are to be held (which technically afaik they should),

SF should push for a border poll in the negotiations in event of a election rerun for stormont.....let brexit worry about itself

Del.Monte

^^^^^^ And we'll all live happily ever after. :rolleyes:

tomwaterford

Del.Monte wrote: »

^^^^^^ And we'll all live happily ever after. :rolleyes:

Reunification has worked out well for Germany



Come to think of it....has reunification worked out badly long term anywhere?

ancapailldorcha

Del.Monte wrote: »

^^^^^^ And we'll all live happily ever after. :rolleyes:

Serious discussion only please.

An Ciarraioch

tomwaterford wrote: »

Reunification has worked out well for Germany



Come to think of it....has reunification worked out badly long term anywhere?

That said, given that 40% of the vote in the former GDR went to either the far-left or the far-right in September, we should hope that the Southern parties would be established in NI somewhat more quickly!

AnGaelach

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, given that 40% of the vote in the former GDR went to either the far-left or the far-right in September, we should hope that the Southern parties would be established in NI somewhat more quickly!

Hardly any worse than 65% of the votes in the North currently going to Provos or Loyalists tbf.

blanch152

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

60% of Southerners would back unity even with a €9b annual cost:

https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/28/Support-for-a-united-Ireland-dramatically-increases

Doesn't bode well for unity, as that is before it is explained who will pay - social welfare cuts, taxpayers, public service pay cuts etc.

Once those numbers are clear, the 60% will drop below 40% very quickly.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

who will pay

The British made an utter balls of the north so they're going to help pay to fix it and I would imagine it would become a pet-project of the EU.

Also, you should familiarise yourself with the 'Parade of Horribles' rhetorical device which explains just about every post you make when it comes to your vehement opposition to Irish unification.

We'll be bankrupt.
Unionists will nuke Dublin.
They'll want to parade through your house in Kerry every weekend.
The crops will fail.
The black plague will return,
... and so on.

Jayop

blanch152 wrote: »

Doesn't bode well for unity, as that is before it is explained who will pay - social welfare cuts, taxpayers, public service pay cuts etc.

Once those numbers are clear, the 60% will drop below 40% very quickly.

Lol dream on sun shine. I love how you just decide something is so contrary to all evidence because it suits your twisted logic.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The British made an utter balls of the north so they're going to help pay to fix it and I would imagine it would become a pet-project of the EU.

Also, you should familiarise yourself with the 'Parade of Horribles' rhetorical device which explains just about every post you make when it comes to your vehement opposition to Irish unification.

We'll be bankrupt.
Unionists will nuke Dublin.
They'll want to parade through your house in Kerry every weekend.
The crops will fail.
The black plague will return,
... and so on.

Jayop wrote: »

Lol dream on sun shine. I love how you just decide something is so contrary to all evidence because it suits your twisted logic.

It would be nice if someone would explain to me sometimes how much the social welfare rates will be cut in the South to match the rates in the North, or how much extra the taxpayer in the South is going to have to pay to increase the social welfare rates in the North.

It is simple maths, one or the other, or a combination of both, say 50% of the cost in cuts to Southern social welfare rates and 50% to increases in taxation for Southern taxpayers.

When that question is satisfactorily answered (and not by fantasy economic studies commissioned by Friends of Sinn Fein), then I can be accused of saying the sky is falling down.

Avatar MIA

blanch152 wrote: »

It would be nice if someone would explain to me sometimes how much the social welfare rates will be cut in the South to match the rates in the North, or how much extra the taxpayer in the South is going to have to pay to increase the social welfare rates in the North.

It is simple maths, one or the other, or a combination of both, say 50% of the cost in cuts to Southern social welfare rates and 50% to increases in taxation for Southern taxpayers.

When that question is satisfactorily answered (and not by fantasy economic studies commissioned by Friends of Sinn Fein), then I can be accused of saying the sky is falling down.

First of all those on SW don't tend to vote, and so won't matter much from a constitutional decision POV.

However, I would say those in the North East would have to come up to same level as the rest of the country. This may be phased, as the integration of the NE as a whole may be.

blanch152

Avatar MIA wrote: »

First of all those on SW don't tend to vote, and so won't matter much from a constitutional decision POV.

However, I would say those in the North East would have to come up to same level as the rest of the country. This may be phased, as the integration of the NE as a whole may be.

So the taxpayer in the South will pay with increased taxation rates, glad that was cleared up.

Avatar MIA

blanch152 wrote: »

So the taxpayer in the South will pay with increased taxation rates, glad that was cleared up.

You've jumped to conclusions, but it's one possibility.

You're ruling out that over time (I mentioned a phasing) NI's economy could be turned around and made productive. As it stands there's a huge brain drain from NI. Do you concede this?

Do you think it's possible that there's huge potential in the NE?

Junkyard Tom

Avatar MIA wrote: »

You're ruling out that over time (I mentioned a phasing) NI's economy could be turned around and made productive.

As I would see it the NE would remain largely as is save for a change of currency to euro, harmonisation of personal taxes, VAT, corporate tax and so on.

When the NE's economy grew to alignment with the the rest of the country we could look at a harmonisation/hybridisation of services except for perhaps the PSNI which we could leave under devolved-from-Dublin control to keep Unionists happy.

One thing is for sure a UI wouldn't be an overnight assimilation, it could take decades to complete.

Avatar MIA

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

it could take decades to complete.

I would hope it would be a lot shorter. It would be in the UK's and the EU's interest for it to work out, and a lot sooner than that.

Junkyard Tom

Avatar MIA wrote: »

I would hope it would be a lot shorter. It would be in the UK's and the EU's interest for it to work out, and a lot sooner than that.

I guess what I mean is that it could take decades for full normalisation to bed in rather than decades to harmonise the country institutionally/bureaucratically.

Avatar MIA

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I guess what I mean is that it could take decades for full normalisation to bed in rather than decades to harmonise the country institutionally/bureaucratically.

For sure, but arguably NI never achieved that normalisation.

Jayop

Avatar MIA wrote: »

For sure, but arguably NI never achieved that normalisation.

For good reason. British occupation and an armed struggle as a result.

murphaph

Avatar MIA wrote: »

I would hope it would be a lot shorter. It would be in the UK's and the EU's interest for it to work out, and a lot sooner than that.

German unification is still a work in progress 30 years after the wall fell. The former East still suffers from persistently high unemployment and lives from subsidies from the west. Pension entitlements and minimum wages are lower in the East still.

Remember that this is all following the largest transfer of wealth in human history.

Avatar MIA

murphaph wrote: »

German unification is still a work in progress 30 years after the wall fell. The former East still suffers from persistently high unemployment and lives from subsidies from the west. Pension entitlements and minimum wages are lower in the East still.

Remember that this is all following the largest transfer of wealth in human history.

NI is nowhere near as deprived as communist East Germany, nor is there such a great a disparity between the ROI and NI.

The comparison is frankly embarrassing.

murphaph

Avatar MIA wrote: »

NI is nowhere near as deprived as communist East Germany, nor is there such a great a disparity between the ROI and NI.

The comparison is frankly embarrassing.

But the former East Germany has significantly better infrastructure than Northern Ireland today and still lags way behind the West in economic output. Also I wouldn't be so sure that the GDR wasn't actually as productive as NI! Both states certainly suffer(ed) from a total over reliance on the public sector and subsidies from outside (from the Soviet Union in the case of the GDR in later years).

It has much more to do with the mentality.

(Peace)Mauer im Kopf.

Avatar MIA

murphaph wrote: »

It has much more to do with the mentality.

The mentality from being subjugated by decades of communist rule where people risked their lives to evacuate from? This was no mental wall, it was an actual wall. This is comparison you're making to constituent part of the UK?

Are you having a laugh?

Jayop

It's a fair comparison to make and even fairer to dismiss. I don't mind people making such comparisons as they're easily argued down. It's an honest enough question to ask and the answer is readily available.

murphaph

Avatar MIA wrote: »

The mentality from being subjugated by decades of communist rule where people risked their lives to evacuate from? This was no mental wall, it was an actual wall. This is comparison you're making to constituent part of the UK?

Are you having a laugh?

Are you?

The physical wall separating east from West is gone and has been replaced by a mental wall, the so called Mauer im Kopf. The physical walls separating Catholic from Protestant still exist and when they fall they will be replaced by a mental wall as well, which will also take decades to fade.

Avatar MIA

murphaph wrote: »

Are you?

The physical wall separating east from West is gone and has been replaced by a mental wall, the so called Mauer im Kopf. The physical walls separating Catholic from Protestant still exist and when they fall they will be replaced by a mental wall as well, which will also take decades to fade.

There is no doubt that there remains a mental block between the East and West of Germany. One came from a Brutal regime where their rulers extracted sever retribution for the war, and continued to brutally suppress them through a communist regime. The other part of Germany benefited from a largely benign occupation and the Marshall plan. They were then given their independence. The two Germany's were obviously very different.

To compare NI/ROI to E&W Germany only serves to contrast how different the situations are.

murphaph

Avatar MIA wrote: »

There is no doubt that there remains a mental block between the East and West of Germany. One came from a Brutal regime where their rulers extracted sever retribution for the war, and continued to brutally suppress them through a communist regime. The other part of Germany benefited from a largely benign occupation and the Marshall plan. They were then given their independence. The two Germany's were obviously very different.

To compare NI/ROI to E&W Germany only serves to contrast how different the situations are.

And there's no mental wall (as well as the physical ones) separating Catholic and Protestant in NI?