FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Iancar29 · 30-11-2017 05:44PM

GFS12z intensifies the reacurring low next thursday into a impressive storm.
Would bring strong gales, heavy rain turning to wet snow on the back edge, blizzards on high ground.
Look at those Isobars!!

squarecircles · 30-11-2017 07:27PM

:eek:Christ on a bike!!!

JCX BXC · 30-11-2017 07:43PM

Would be such a pity to get such a promising southerly flow at this time of year, save it for May-September!

sunbeam · 30-11-2017 08:15PM

ECMWF shows no sign of the storm for December 7th/8th:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017113012/ECM1-168.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017113012/ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

Donegal Storm · 30-11-2017 10:23PM

I'd seriously consider taking a day off and heading up to Donegal if that was to come off! Love a good northerly storm, on the rare occasions we get them they always seem to have a lot more of a punch than our usual westerlies

sdanseo · 01-12-2017 02:55AM

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I'd seriously consider taking a day off and heading up to Donegal if that was to come off

With your username, I should hope so.

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2017 05:27AM

GFS has a brief put potent northerly again next week, not quite as good as the 18z but the trend is the same, -8C uppers and NE'ly winds

gfsnh-0-168.png?0

The trigger low that crosses the Atlantic and disrupts over Ireland/UK in the frames before this isn't even there on the ECM, will be interesting to see if it appears this morning.

sean555 · 01-12-2017 05:32PM

GFS still wants a northerly next week.

squarecircles · 01-12-2017 05:40PM

icesnowfrost · 01-12-2017 05:53PM

squarecircles wrote: »

As beautiful as it looks and I am guilty of using this from netweather I find it's very inaccurate even at 72hrs out but it's still grate to get some kind of idea that cold conditions for snow to fall are being seen.
ðŸ˜Š

Darwin · 01-12-2017 06:01PM

Looking good alright on the GFS 12z for later Thursday and Friday of next week. A deepening area of low pressure in the North Sea bringing a cold air mass and what I would expect to be snow showers over many parts. What is encouraging is the UKMO 12z has similar synoptics (cold), but not quite the same dartboard low as the GFS.

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2017 06:17PM

GFS has round 2 in deepest FI- and a 1060mb Arctic High. I hope it's onto something with these wild charts, a snowstorm would be nice.

hatrickpatrick · 01-12-2017 07:15PM

Those who were saying "game over for a blocked December" might feel a little silly looking at the 12z GFS

Meteorite58 · 01-12-2017 08:24PM

That would be a big switch in Temps and wind direction if that storm came off around next Thurs /Fri . Picking up a deepening depression now on a few runs and as you would imagine the shape and track of it has been changing somewhat. The UK on the last couple of runs would get the strongest winds. Impossible to know at this stage if there will be snow but the chart below shows the possibility of type of precipitation based on the present runs .

GFS showing some lively weather in later runs well out in FI.
.
TQbkzTg.gif?1

The 12Z ECM must be warming the cold lovers hearts

UKMO

If the models just would all stay that way now it would be great :pac:

sryanbruen · 01-12-2017 08:25PM

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/936674290736549888

George Sunsnow · 01-12-2017 08:47PM

He forgot to elaborate that it’s the exact same type of artic feed as the last week ..
That was fun wasn’t it
Here’s the ECM for next Thursday
Warmer in fact than the week gone out

Meteorite58 · 01-12-2017 09:07PM

If the charts being shown in FI were to happen as shown presently then the temperature would change quickly on Thurs from perhaps 10C or so early in the morning to low sinle digits by mid afternoon ( according to the GFS and yes this is all subject to change ). Also with the strong winds showing up the GFS is predicting at this stage a severe windchill. The upper Temps are set to drop further as the day goes on into Thurs according to the ECM. A long way off yet but the models showing some agreement in the introduction of N'lys again after the upcoming milder spell of weather.

The ECM and UKMO not showing it as windy on Thurs / Fri.

Elmer Blooker · 01-12-2017 09:44PM

What I like about the ECM is the fall of pressure in southern Europe and the Azores/mid Atlantic high becoming less intense.
At +240 what could possibly go wrong?

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

Meteorite58 · 01-12-2017 09:47PM

Donegal Storm · 01-12-2017 10:03PM

Interesting enough runs tonight, that storm is sourced south of the Azores yet could possibly bring snow, quite an unusual setup!

Of course it'll likely end up a watered down and fairly uninteresting feature but interesting to watch. Maybe chances of an active front or two as well though they've been scarcer than snow in recent times

Still no sign of low heights over Greenland either so a return to dull frontal westerlies is hopefully a while away yet

nagdefy · 01-12-2017 10:10PM

George Sunsnow wrote: »

He forgot to elaborate that it’s the exact same type of artic feed as the last week ..
That was fun wasn’t it
Here’s the ECM for next Thursday
Warmer in fact than the week gone out

That'll do me fine. Good healthy weather for animals and no real severe frost to burst water pipes, freeze troughs.

hatrickpatrick · 01-12-2017 10:56PM

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/936674290736549888

Hasn't been a great week for the winter charts
In fact the way they've been lately's bunch of arse
But I opened my laptop to check the 12z and I <Mod snip >