Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Copper_pipe · 14-10-2017 6:33pm

I live about a mile from the Limerick/Cork birder on the Limerick side.

For the hurricane I’ll consider myself to be on the cork side until Limerick gets added to red alert ....

smodgley · 14-10-2017 6:34pm

when is the next NHC advisory due ? 8pm our time ?

r93kaey5p2izun · 14-10-2017 6:34pm

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

gugsy · 14-10-2017 6:35pm

Working class heroes wrote:

What time for the next advisory?

smodgley wrote:

when is the next NHC advisory due ? 8pm our time ?

10pm

Gaoth Laidir · 14-10-2017 6:37pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Why is it that these analyses seem to be consistently less intense than the NHC's definition of maximum winds? Is it measured a different way or are they using different models?

The NHC always seem to round their estimates upwards from observations to allow for the possibility of undersampling. The chart I post is from 4 different satellite platforms and is based on the 700 hPa windfield extrapolated to the surface using various coefficients that depend on the distance from the storm's centre.

marno21 · 14-10-2017 6:37pm

What can we expect about 30km inland from Tralee? Will it be weaker away from the coast?

Pangea · 14-10-2017 6:37pm

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I'm in favour of an Eagleton comeback special

space2ground1 · 14-10-2017 6:39pm

Is the current forecast trend for Ophelia to drift slightly westwards? Wexford/Waterford haven’t been included in the red warning.

Just wondering if there’s time for the forecast to change to include those counties or would that be against the trend on track predictions?

Irish Steve · 14-10-2017 6:40pm

definitely not the most confident of forecasts on RTE1, probably because it's the first time she's had to forecast anything even remotely like this, both in terms of where its coming from, and the potential intensity of it.

In nearly 30 years here, I don't think I've seen weather with such a strong wind for so much of the country, what's very clear is that this could cause significant damage to infrastructure, especially ESB, which in passing could also cause some significant broadband issues, as they have a significant high speed fibre network carried on their high voltage network cables, so if overhead cables or pylons are damaged, that could also take out massive chunks of high speed broadband backbone services.

As had been mentioned several times, the devil will be in the detail, a relatively small change in track or the intensity of the storm could mean a massive difference for some parts of the country, and even now, calling it with any more accuracy is just not possible.

14-10-2017 6:41pm

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

Well, they have to earn their stripes some time....

Colser · 14-10-2017 6:42pm

Will the winds be stronger than Darwin and if so will they be much worse?Will it start getting windy by tomorrow night?

Thanks a mill to all the experienced posters here..everytime MT posts it's like a message from God ðŸ˜

Gaoth Laidir · 14-10-2017 6:44pm

Ophelia is around 140 NM south of Santa Maria, Azores now. The TAF for the airport calls for northerly/northwesterly winds of 40 knots gusting to 50 knots from 9 pm tonight to around 9 am tomorrow as the hurricane passes to its east.

TAF LPAZ 141100Z 1412/1518 16020KT 9999 SCT008 BKN015
BECMG 1414/1417 13025KT 5000 RA SCT006 BKN012
TEMPO 1417/1424 VRB25G35KT 1500 +TSRA BKN004 SCT020CB
BECMG 1421/1424 35030G43KT 9999 NSW SCT015 BKN035
TEMPO 1500/1509 34040G50KT BECMG 1509/1512 34020G33KT

Wombatman · 14-10-2017 6:48pm

South Coast looking to take the biggest waves.

Spanish Eyes · 14-10-2017 6:48pm

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I think they might be saving them for tomorrow night, to keep us all calm and collected like.;)

dfx- · 14-10-2017 6:49pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919240140811390978

That's great clip of its formation, it being stationary spinning by itself and then being carried towards Ireland.

Meteorite58 · 14-10-2017 6:50pm

marno21 wrote: »

What can we expect about 30km inland from Tralee? Will it be weaker away from the coast?

Looks very rough, not 100% but something like these for a time.

Gusts

Will have a better idea tomorrow when the short range forecasts come into effect

Michelle_b · 14-10-2017 6:51pm

I have lived in Caribbean for several hurricanes. Over there they are so used to getting them you have hurricane supplies in at the start of season and action plan for work places, schools etc baring in mind these islands are tiny in comparison to Ireland so when they get hit not as easy to get supplies or fix elec.

Sometimes the outter bands can be more damaging than the eye itself. I have friends in Puerto Rico who are still without electricity weeks on. She has said island is destroyed.

I think met eireann is airing on side of caution as hurricanes paths can change. However I think they really need to make a call tomorrow early so people are prepared. Supplies in if electricity goes ( torches water canned food), everything charged, petrol in cars, outside areas make sure everything put away, drains cleared, Elderly that live alone checked on or moved, animals moved and inside etc. I hear people talking about the weather but not everyone is actually preparing 'just in case'

Fair play to guys in here that are knowledgeable on this kind of thing. I never expected to be followed from Caribbean to back home to see hurricane. Especially colder waters. Over there it's hurricane watch and hurricane warning when it is definite hit. A flag is posted around the main government buildings. Any island that has been hit the people are terrified. It is heartbreaking to see them panic. When first arrived a hurricane was coming called Wilma South of us and I didn't know what to expect. I couldn't even get a bottle of water or torch or candle at local supermarket as island had been hit bad year before. Baring again in mind these islands are very small. All I can say is be prepared in some way and just be safe and look in on anyway that is alone and make sure animals are okay. Terrifying for them.

Going keep following this thread.

Cantona's Collars · 14-10-2017 6:51pm

space2ground1 wrote: »

Is the current forecast trend for Ophelia to drift slightly westwards? Wexford/Waterford haven’t been included in the red warning.

Just wondering if there’s time for the forecast to change to include those counties or would that be against the trend on track predictions?

A lot of the charts here show the Waterford and Wexford coasts being hit by strong winds yet some inland counties have warnings issued eg. Carlow.
As much as I'd love to be near the likes of Hook Head the journey there might not be the best idea on Monday. I saw the devastation Darwin caused to local forests here and the winds on the way are forecast to be even stronger.

Drumpot · 14-10-2017 6:51pm

Colser wrote: »

Thanks a mill to all the experienced posters here..everytime MT posts it's like a message from God ðŸ˜

I know , right? I have been telling my wife about this thread since it was started and she keeps slagging me cause she thinks I’m over reacting. I think it’s the username that sounds like a massive brain “MT cranium”. Sounds like a super villain! I keep saying “this guy knows his sh*t and doesn’t hype things at all.. He has been increasing the percentage chance that this will happen!!”.

I know there have been other really helpful posters aswell but if I said a guy called Kermit the frog is predicting a serious weather front, she would never take me serious again!!!

Gaoth Laidir · 14-10-2017 6:52pm

Latest IR and surface, ship and buoy reports.

Romantic Rose · 14-10-2017 6:54pm

A message from the Gods, I couldn't have put it better myself. Absolutely stellar work on this thread and I can't praise the posters who have put so much work into keeping us updated. Absolutely fantastic work and I cannot thank you all enough. I wouldn't have had a clue how serious this storm could be without you.

Rougies · 14-10-2017 6:55pm

Drumpot wrote: »

I think it’s the username that sounds like a massive brain “MT cranium”.

Quite the opposite, say "MT" quickly and what word do you get?

Meteorite58 · 14-10-2017 6:57pm

An Outlier ? Short Range HIRLAM just coming into view.

Mean wind speeds

Comhrá · 14-10-2017 6:57pm

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I'm betting Gerald F. will make an appearance either on tonight's RTE Main News or sometime tomorrow. The situation really warrants a few words of wisdom and advice from the man himself.

munsterlegend · 14-10-2017 7:00pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

An Outlier ? Short Range HIRLAM just coming into view.

Mean wind speeds

That doesn't look too severe away from the coast. Is it further east as well?

confusicus · 14-10-2017 7:01pm

I have a flight at 6:20am out of Dublin to Rome.

Looking at the charts, I think I should be okay, but could anyone with more knowledge on the subject confirm this?