Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

It might be an outlier, looks much further E then the other models. They are mean speeds , gusts much higher.

Shows the uncertainty though the models have been very steady with regards to the path the last few days.

Donegal Storm

12z Euro..



Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

dusty207

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

Meteorite58

Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

Seems the Met Eireann forecast is very much following the ECM not too dissimilar rto the GFS ( gusts at 10m )

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/919217340826509312

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919247482252615681

gozunda

Donegal Storm wrote: »

12z Euro..

...
Winds at 850hPa (stronger than ground level), direct hit for Cork and Kerry again

A bit further east then previous to include Kerry/ Cork / Limerick (east) / Waterford / Wexford ...

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM



Again initially it is that southwestern corner i'd be most concerned about. Damaging.

Meteorite58

This afternoon

uck51js9zml2yt

What width is she?

Gaoth Laidir

Kai Rotten Shipwreck wrote: »

What width is she?

About a Size 8

Gaoth Laidir

I'm not sure how the HWRF hurricane model handles extratropical systems but for what it's worth here is its output for 09Z Monday.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/919266634191138816

https://twitter.com/valmenor/status/919265882790158336

sdanseo

dusty207 wrote: »

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

You'll be getting your usual dose of ton bags of sand no doubt.

vicwatson

Stupid question alert - will there be much precipitation with this?

smunchkins

I'm in Baltimore. From most of these models it looks like we'll be the welcome party.

dusty207

sdanseo wrote: »

You'll be getting your usual dose of ton bags of sand no doubt.

Haha, not a sign of anything stirring so far!

Gaoth Laidir

Captain Snow

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-17.32,45.43,1016/loc=-0.616,51.790

MJohnston

dusty207 wrote: »

Living on the seafront in Clontarf where even "normal" high winds cause flooding, any idea what the wind direction will be?

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Deank

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

Pangea

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

dacogawa

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it will be very close to a SSE wind direction, which is not good for Clontarf, but I haven’t looked at the tide times.

Dublin full tide is just after 10pm so the tide should be lower at what looks like peak wind times, looking like they will shift direction coming towards full tide.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Dublin-Ireland/tides/latest

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

Yeah I was expecting it to go west this morning and move away from us. Of course it might still do. If it moves further east then a lot more counties in the red zone.

dense

dense wrote: »

It's the weekend. RTE really only does foreign news at weekends.

Surely they have an oncall producer who can go "By the way, mention something about that storm heading our way.."

Edit: Wrote this post just after the 1pm news when there was no mention of the storm. Due to a browser glitch it only posted the comment at 7.40. Looked at RTE news just now and to be fair they did mention it.

thecretinhop

Great work guys.
2 questions. At what stage would you be able to call it locked in as definite going to happen and where and what are the key update times over next day or so?

Gaoth Laidir

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

Meteorite58

12Z ECM just rolling out




Note: 850hpa chart

philstar

Deank wrote: »

Looks ominous here.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.95;-8.05;6&l=gust&t=20171016/13

south-east is the place to be for storm chasers, me thinks

MJohnston

Pangea wrote: »

It has been a fascinating few days following this thread,I'm still waiting for everything to go belly up, let's be honest most potential interesting weather events tend to go that way in this country

To be honest, “belly up” in this particular can really only describe an ‘upgrade’ (in the storm energy sense), and I think a lot of us would be happy for it not to get any worse than the current predictions.

server down

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

18Z multiplatform wind analysis, showing max winds 88 knots 38 NM east of the centre. Further expansion of the 64+ knot windfield to 85 NM. Central pressure 947 hPa.

Does that mean the south east is likely to bear the brunt?