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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Copper_pipe

I live about a mile from the Limerick/Cork birder on the Limerick side.

For the hurricane I’ll consider myself to be on the cork side until Limerick gets added to red alert ....

smodgley

when is the next NHC advisory due ? 8pm our time ?

r93kaey5p2izun

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

gugsy

Working class heroes wrote:

What time for the next advisory?

smodgley wrote:

when is the next NHC advisory due ? 8pm our time ?

10pm

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Why is it that these analyses seem to be consistently less intense than the NHC's definition of maximum winds? Is it measured a different way or are they using different models?

The NHC always seem to round their estimates upwards from observations to allow for the possibility of undersampling. The chart I post is from 4 different satellite platforms and is based on the 700 hPa windfield extrapolated to the surface using various coefficients that depend on the distance from the storm's centre.

marno21

What can we expect about 30km inland from Tralee? Will it be weaker away from the coast?

Pangea

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I'm in favour of an Eagleton comeback special

space2ground1

Is the current forecast trend for Ophelia to drift slightly westwards? Wexford/Waterford haven’t been included in the red warning.

Just wondering if there’s time for the forecast to change to include those counties or would that be against the trend on track predictions?

Irish Steve

definitely not the most confident of forecasts on RTE1, probably because it's the first time she's had to forecast anything even remotely like this, both in terms of where its coming from, and the potential intensity of it.

In nearly 30 years here, I don't think I've seen weather with such a strong wind for so much of the country, what's very clear is that this could cause significant damage to infrastructure, especially ESB, which in passing could also cause some significant broadband issues, as they have a significant high speed fibre network carried on their high voltage network cables, so if overhead cables or pylons are damaged, that could also take out massive chunks of high speed broadband backbone services.

As had been mentioned several times, the devil will be in the detail, a relatively small change in track or the intensity of the storm could mean a massive difference for some parts of the country, and even now, calling it with any more accuracy is just not possible.

[Deleted User]

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

Well, they have to earn their stripes some time....

Colser

Will the winds be stronger than Darwin and if so will they be much worse?Will it start getting windy by tomorrow night?

Thanks a mill to all the experienced posters here..everytime MT posts it's like a message from God ðŸ˜

Gaoth Laidir

Ophelia is around 140 NM south of Santa Maria, Azores now. The TAF for the airport calls for northerly/northwesterly winds of 40 knots gusting to 50 knots from 9 pm tonight to around 9 am tomorrow as the hurricane passes to its east.

TAF LPAZ 141100Z 1412/1518 16020KT 9999 SCT008 BKN015
BECMG 1414/1417 13025KT 5000 RA SCT006 BKN012
TEMPO 1417/1424 VRB25G35KT 1500 +TSRA BKN004 SCT020CB
BECMG 1421/1424 35030G43KT 9999 NSW SCT015 BKN035
TEMPO 1500/1509 34040G50KT BECMG 1509/1512 34020G33KT

Wombatman

South Coast looking to take the biggest waves.

Spanish Eyes

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I think they might be saving them for tomorrow night, to keep us all calm and collected like.;)

dfx-

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919240140811390978

That's great clip of its formation, it being stationary spinning by itself and then being carried towards Ireland.

Meteorite58

marno21 wrote: »

What can we expect about 30km inland from Tralee? Will it be weaker away from the coast?

Looks very rough, not 100% but something like these for a time.

Gusts

Will have a better idea tomorrow when the short range forecasts come into effect

Michelle_b

I have lived in Caribbean for several hurricanes. Over there they are so used to getting them you have hurricane supplies in at the start of season and action plan for work places, schools etc baring in mind these islands are tiny in comparison to Ireland so when they get hit not as easy to get supplies or fix elec.

Sometimes the outter bands can be more damaging than the eye itself. I have friends in Puerto Rico who are still without electricity weeks on. She has said island is destroyed.

I think met eireann is airing on side of caution as hurricanes paths can change. However I think they really need to make a call tomorrow early so people are prepared. Supplies in if electricity goes ( torches water canned food), everything charged, petrol in cars, outside areas make sure everything put away, drains cleared, Elderly that live alone checked on or moved, animals moved and inside etc. I hear people talking about the weather but not everyone is actually preparing 'just in case'

Fair play to guys in here that are knowledgeable on this kind of thing. I never expected to be followed from Caribbean to back home to see hurricane. Especially colder waters. Over there it's hurricane watch and hurricane warning when it is definite hit. A flag is posted around the main government buildings. Any island that has been hit the people are terrified. It is heartbreaking to see them panic. When first arrived a hurricane was coming called Wilma South of us and I didn't know what to expect. I couldn't even get a bottle of water or torch or candle at local supermarket as island had been hit bad year before. Baring again in mind these islands are very small. All I can say is be prepared in some way and just be safe and look in on anyway that is alone and make sure animals are okay. Terrifying for them.

Going keep following this thread.

Cantona's Collars

space2ground1 wrote: »

Is the current forecast trend for Ophelia to drift slightly westwards? Wexford/Waterford haven’t been included in the red warning.

Just wondering if there’s time for the forecast to change to include those counties or would that be against the trend on track predictions?

A lot of the charts here show the Waterford and Wexford coasts being hit by strong winds yet some inland counties have warnings issued eg. Carlow.
As much as I'd love to be near the likes of Hook Head the journey there might not be the best idea on Monday. I saw the devastation Darwin caused to local forests here and the winds on the way are forecast to be even stronger.

Drumpot

Colser wrote: »

Thanks a mill to all the experienced posters here..everytime MT posts it's like a message from God ðŸ˜

I know , right? I have been telling my wife about this thread since it was started and she keeps slagging me cause she thinks I’m over reacting. I think it’s the username that sounds like a massive brain “MT cranium”. Sounds like a super villain! I keep saying “this guy knows his sh*t and doesn’t hype things at all.. He has been increasing the percentage chance that this will happen!!”.

I know there have been other really helpful posters aswell but if I said a guy called Kermit the frog is predicting a serious weather front, she would never take me serious again!!!

Gaoth Laidir

Latest IR and surface, ship and buoy reports.

Romantic Rose

A message from the Gods, I couldn't have put it better myself. Absolutely stellar work on this thread and I can't praise the posters who have put so much work into keeping us updated. Absolutely fantastic work and I cannot thank you all enough. I wouldn't have had a clue how serious this storm could be without you.

Rougies

Drumpot wrote: »

I think it’s the username that sounds like a massive brain “MT cranium”.

Quite the opposite, say "MT" quickly and what word do you get?

Meteorite58

An Outlier ? Short Range HIRLAM just coming into view.

Mean wind speeds

Comhrá

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I'm betting Gerald F. will make an appearance either on tonight's RTE Main News or sometime tomorrow. The situation really warrants a few words of wisdom and advice from the man himself.

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

An Outlier ? Short Range HIRLAM just coming into view.

Mean wind speeds

That doesn't look too severe away from the coast. Is it further east as well?

confusicus

I have a flight at 6:20am out of Dublin to Rome.

Looking at the charts, I think I should be okay, but could anyone with more knowledge on the subject confirm this?

Gaoth Laidir

6a019d2eac289afd79f026c9b011c20ac56af8155daa16dfa97092488ef1ef78.gif

BorneTobyWilde

Wombatman wrote: »

South Coast looking to take the biggest waves.

Kermit.de.frog

Comhra wrote: »

The situation really warrants a few words of wisdom and advice from the man himself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi0uX2sZuFg

Meteorite58

That doesn't look too severe away from the coast. Is it further east as well?

It might be an outlier, looks much further E then the other models. They are mean speeds , gusts much higher.