Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat · 20-01-2017 01:05PM

small double on exeter +14 and connacht +13

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 01:48PM

I should say firstly that I'm not having a bet.

But my imaginary flutter tonight would be for both Leinster (-13) and Montpellier (-23) to both beat their handicaps.

The Pheasant2 · 20-01-2017 02:24PM

Nel is out for Scotland for the 6N, I'm taking Ireland -7 before it moves out further

CoDy1 · 20-01-2017 03:15PM

I follow this guy on twitter, seems to have a good hit rate, only 1 wrong last week.

C2i7Co_WQAA-8pY.jpg:large

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 03:46PM

CoDy1 wrote: »

I follow this guy on twitter, seems to have a good hit rate, only 1 wrong last week.

His score margins aren't as accurate as his win/loss predictions.

Exeter by 11. Actually by 12 :cool:
Clermont by 3. Actually by 3 :cool:
Northampton by 1. Actually by 7

Leinster by 15. Actually by 54 :eek:
Saracens by 6. Actually by 0 :mad:
Toulon by 14. Actually by 15 :cool:
Wasps by 12. Actually by 3

Connacht by 28. Actually by 45

Racing by 1. Actually by 31

Munster by 4. Actually by 2 :cool:

So very close in 4, wrong result in 1, out in 1 and miles out in 3.

His win rate is very good though.

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 03:47PM

CoDy1 wrote: »

I follow this guy on twitter, seems to have a good hit rate, only 1 wrong last week.

Castres +16 (ladbrokes) would be a good bet according to that so!

CoDy1 · 20-01-2017 03:57PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Exeter by 11. Actually by 12 :cool:
Clermont by 3. Actually by 3 :cool:
Northampton by 1. Actually by 7
Leinster by 15. Actually by 54 :eek:
Saracens by 6. Actually by 0 :mad:
Toulon by 14. Actually by 15 :cool:
Wasps by 12. Actually by 3
Connacht by 28. Actually by 45
Racing by 1. Actually by 31
Munster by 4. Actually by 2 :cool:

So very close in 4, wrong result in 1, out in 1 and miles out in 3.

His win rate is very good though.

So if you take his 'win by' as the an alternative handicap, he was 1 out. Thats decent

sydthebeat · 20-01-2017 04:04PM

CoDy1 wrote: »

So if you take his 'win by' as the an alternative handicap, he was 1 out. Thats decent

if you did an accumulator on all the "favourites" this weekend youd only get something like 4/1

win rate in rugby is always pretty high as major upsets dont tend to happen and home advantage can be a great leveller.

the closest games the bookies see this weekend is sale / scarlets (now scarlets -2) and leicester / glasgow (warriors -2)

after those games the results are expected to be pretty clear cut.

id expect his predictions to be approx 33% out on most games.

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 04:12PM

kuang1 wrote: »

Castres +16 (ladbrokes) would be a good bet according to that so!

+13 with PP would be better

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 04:16PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

+13 with PP would be better

No...backing Castres +16 is better than backing Castres at +13!
(i.e. backing Castres to not lose by more than 15)

errlloyd · 20-01-2017 04:20PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

+13 with PP would be better

I think he means betting on Castre, in which case +16 would be better.

Leinster 15 Castre 0 you win with Ladbrokes
Leinster 12 Castre 0 you win with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes

Of course you could hedge, bet on Leinster with PP and Castre with Ladbrokes.

In that case Leinster if Leinster won by less than 12, or more than 16 you'd get your money back, BUT if Leinster won by 13-15 you'd win both sides. RISK FREE BETTING

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 04:23PM

errlloyd wrote: »

I think he means betting on Castre, in which case +16 would be better.

Leinster 15 Castre 0 you win with Ladbrokes
Leinster 12 Castre 0 you win with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes

Of course you could hedge, bet on Leinster with PP and Castre with Ladbrokes.

In that case Leinster if Leinster won by less than 12, or more than 16 you'd get your money back, BUT if Leinster won by 13-15 you'd win both sides. RISK FREE BETTING

Yeah, I missed the + there and was thinking only of betting on Leinster.

Since I took Leinster at -12 before the teams were announced, so I'm hopeful

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 04:26PM

errlloyd wrote: »

I think he means betting on Castre, in which case +16 would be better.

Leinster 15 Castre 0 you win with Ladbrokes
Leinster 12 Castre 0 you win with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes

Of course you could hedge, bet on Leinster with PP and Castre with Ladbrokes.

In that case Leinster if Leinster won by less than 12, or more than 16 you'd get your money back, BUT if Leinster won by 13-15 you'd win both sides. RISK FREE BETTING

For the sake of accuracy both bets win if Leinster win by either 14 or 15 points exactly. (The draw bet is also an option in the handicaps, hence a 13 or 16 point victory would mean a loss on one of those bets!)

Also it wouldn't be "money back" exactly; you'd lose 1/11th of your stake as the odds are 10/11 as opposed to even money!

*So risk = 9.1%

*Edit: sorry! My maths are wrong! Seeing as you'd only lose 1/11th of your stake, when combined with the winnings of one bet being returned also, risk is 4.5%

Zzippy · 20-01-2017 04:28PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

+13 with PP would be better

You sure?

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 04:35PM

Zzippy wrote: »

You sure?

Bit late to the party Zzippy. Been there and answered that.

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 04:38PM

In other betting news. Ireland for the grand slam has shortened by a point everywhere since last week.
Best available today is PP @5/1. (Boylesports @4/1).

I had thought 6's was generous...feels more like a 4/1 or 9/2 type of bet to me.

errlloyd · 20-01-2017 04:39PM

kuang1 wrote: »

For the sake of accuracy both bets win if Leinster win by either 14 or 15 points exactly. (The draw bet is also an option in the handicaps, hence a 13 or 16 point victory would mean a loss on one of those bets!)

Also it wouldn't be "money back" exactly; you'd lose 1/11th of your stake as the odds are 10/11 as opposed to even money!

So risk = 9.1%

Yeah I didn't really think about it enough. I wonder at what point would the spread stretch between book makers be large enough for me to start putting money on it.

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 04:40PM

errlloyd wrote: »

Yeah I didn't really think about it enough. I wonder at what point would the spread stretch between book makers be large enough for me to start putting money on it.

If you're anything like me, probably never!!

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 04:44PM

kuang1 wrote: »

In other betting news. Ireland for the grand slam has shortened by a point everywhere since last week.
Best available today is PP @5/1. (Boylesports @4/1).

I had thought 6's was generous...feels more like a 4/1 or 9/2 type of bet to me.

An interesting one is to win all our matches with a bonus point. We're at 66/1 for that.

I know it's a long shot, but scoring four tries isn't impossible expecially since BPs are in this year.

btw, we're also 5/1 to win the 6N without a GS.

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 05:00PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

btw, we're also 5/1 to win the 6N without a GS.

Ehhh..are you on the sauce early today CMOT?!

Where, pray tell did you see that? 9/4 is the best I saw.

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 05:05PM

kuang1 wrote: »

Ehhh..are you on the sauce early today CMOT?!

Where, pray tell did you see that? 9/4 is the best I saw.

On PP.

Sigh, appears I have to back that up

aloooof · 20-01-2017 05:53PM

Confusion here is over the "without grand slam" bit.
We're 9/4 to win it outright (with or without GS).
We're 5/1 to win it specifically without winning a GS i.e. Not winning all 5 games.

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 06:05PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

On PP.

Sigh, appears I have to back that up

Ah ok...have ya now.
You realise of course that would be a losing bet were Ireland to win the GS though.

sydthebeat · 20-01-2017 06:10PM

kuang1 wrote: »

Ah ok...have ya now.
You realise of course that would be a losing bet were Ireland to win the GS though.

???

hense the title "ireland to win the 6N but not the grand slam"

im sure he realised it.

CMOTDibbler · 20-01-2017 06:24PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

???

hense the title "ireland to win the 6N but not the grand slam"

im sure he realised it.

Yeah, pretty clear I thought.

And people accused me of being on the sauce early

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 07:29PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Yeah, pretty clear I thought.

And people accused me of being on the sauce early

Clear to all but me! That's what happens when I think that I can concentrate on more than one thing at once! Apologies!!

kuang1 · 20-01-2017 07:57PM

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Nel is out for Scotland for the 6N, I'm taking Ireland -7 before it moves out further

That's available @ -5 on skybet as I type.

Johngoose · 20-01-2017 10:30PM

Nobody predicted the Leinster game right!;-)

Del.Monte · 20-01-2017 11:28PM

Johngoose wrote: »

Nobody predicted the Leinster game right!;-)

I don't know about that, anybody with a brain knew it wasn't going to be an easy game and Castres let them off with a draw. Any other (non-French) team would have taken the easy three points on offer at the end of the game.

Johngoose · 20-01-2017 11:37PM

Del.Monte wrote: »

I don't know about that, anybody with a brain knew it wasn't going to be an easy game and Castres let them off with a draw. Any other (non-French) team would have taken the easy three points on offer at the end of the game.

Must have missed your predictions del monte

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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