Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

Johngoose

Andi High Stutterer wrote: »

Might seem like a long shot but I'd be relatively confident of these 6 games:
Dragons to beat Treviso - 2/9
Leinster to beat Zebre - 1/50
Scarlets to beat Ulster - 4/6
Ospreys to beat Connacht - 1/7
Munster to beat Racing - 8/15
Glasgow to beat Cardiff - 1/4
Total odds of 3.55 (They were 6.12 an hour and twenty minutes ago). Odds aren't fantastic unfortunately. The biggest worries there would be Scarlets and maybe Glasgow although Scarlets have been unbeatable at home but Glasgow have been iffy.

What do you make of the munster game?

thomond2006

Johngoose wrote: »

What do you make of the munster game?

Don't go near it until you see the Racing lineup.

Johngoose

I have a lot of admiration for Connacht rugby,but are they in for an almighty hammering from Ospreys with their injury crisis worsening?I just read that Lam was trying to bring in his son to play for free,but wasn't allowed.

Johngoose

http://m.independent.ie/sport/rugby/guinness-pro12/irfu-blocked-my-son-playing-for-free-pat-lam-35340285.html?campaign_id=A100

Johngoose

Scarlets v Ulster is an interesting one.Ulster are down a few players.Presume their backs are to the wall after losing to Leinster?

Bridge93

Ospreys handicap is at -14. Go make your fortune

Johngoose

Any thought on Munster game?Will the whole do it for Axel thing kick in again,considering Foley died just before original fixture?

sydthebeat

Johngoose wrote: »

Any thought on Munster game?Will the whole do it for Axel thing kick in again,considering Foley died just before original fixture?

the time to take munster was last week when they were -3

theyre currently -6 and possibly will go further out when the teams are named

matthew8

Treviso +11 tomorrow looks a good bet away to the Dragons. Treviso have finally hit a little bit of form and beat the Dragons comfortably earlier in the year, but this bet is all about the Dragons game I watched last week. The pitch was in an awful state and it was the worst game of rugby I've ever seen, no exaggeration. Forecast to rain again tomorrow and another dreadful match in dire conditions would make the -11 very difficult for the Dragons to cover.

cup of tea

cup of tea wrote: »

Agree with the above big lot depends on which Kealtley turns up. Its not a bad Munster team in fairness with a very strong bench with the like of Taute and Kilcoyne able to come on (to name just two).Wheras Connacht wont have any sort of extra gear off the bench.

Think the 11/5 on Munster is a great price with 888bet and won't last and I think you are getting 11/5 on a 50/50 split (imo). Similarly think the +6 with bet365 at 10/11 isnt a bad line or price and again the +6 probably won't last. I like the -10 line for Glasgow against Treviso as well at 10/11, it is -11 & -12 is a lot of other places and they should be gunning for the Bonus point 4 tries.

I was thinking of backing Leinster on the handicap before the teams came out, but although their pack is far superior, their back line looks septic enough and no Johnny sexton either and the Leinster handicap is high enough so I'm going to leave it off.


Munster to win 11/5 Single
Glasgow -10 10/11 Single

Munster +6 10/11
Glasgow -10 10/11 Double

The right Keatley turned up anyway!! 11/5 was a lovely price. Indeed the 11/5 did not last, I think they went off 6/4? Glasgow were looking good at one stage 16 points up but let Treviso back into it with stupid mistakes.


I'm back on Munster again this weekend. Racing are out of the competition. They had a big game against Toulon only 5 days ago which they lost. I expect there will be massive changes to the Metro team and will play a weakened side and keep their focus on the Top 14 seeing as they have nothing to play for.

Any players(if any) that play against Munster should have a few bruises to show! The opposite is true for Munster after they rang in the changes against Connacht so should be relatively fresh. The fact that Anthony Foley passed away when this fixture was due to be played should also ensure they are well up for this (similar to how they came out of the blocks against Glasgow). Metro were abysmal in their last two European fixtures both home and away to Glasgow.Munster have it all to play for, Metro have nothing to play for.

I'm backing now before the teams come out and I'd expect the line my move more after they do(if Metro play a weakened team as I expect). Generally -6 across the board that have the handicaps priced up. Munster outright are a bit too short for my liking.


Munster -5.5 with Betfair 17/20

Johngoose

I wouldn't know what to make of the Glasgow v Cardiff Blues game.Are Glasgow definitely going to win?I know Glasgow are at home,which is an advantage.

Johngoose

Worchester +10 looks like good value with PP,considering they are playing a local derby away to Gloucester.

Del.Monte

Johngoose wrote: »

Worchester +10 looks like good value with PP,considering they are playing a local derby away to Gloucester.

Worcester are total rubbish and I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

Johngoose

Del.Monte wrote: »

Worcester are total rubbish and I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

My logic for Worchester +10 mightn't be the best but: They beat Harlequins well at home last weekend.When Worchester played Gloucester a few months ago it ended in a draw.Worchester are at risk of relegation and are battling out the bottom of the table with Bristol and the likes.It is also being hailed as s derby game.

sydthebeat

All home wins in the premiership
@ 4.6/1

wp_rathead

wp_rathead wrote: »

Scarlets -3 vs Ulster seems tempting

Fcuk sake, should have just gone for the Scarlets To Win option

Johngoose

wp_rathead wrote: »

Fcuk sake, should have just gone for the Scarlets To Win option

It was a very tight game,Ulster ran them very close alright.

Johngoose

Is there any hope of Connacht staying within 14 points of Ospreys?

CMOTDibbler

wp_rathead wrote: »

Fcuk sake, should have just gone for the Scarlets To Win option

Me too

Still, Leinster beat the handicap, by a long way, so I'm still ahead.

wp_rathead

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Me too

Still, Leinster beat the handicap, by a long way, so I'm still ahead.

Had Leinster, Dragons and Scarlets to beat their handicaps in a treble.. Fecking raging. Fair play to the guys at PP - they so often get it spot on

Del.Monte

Del.Monte wrote: »

Worcester are total rubbish and I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/report?gameId=290065&league=267979

55-19 to Gloucester.

cup of tea

cup of tea wrote: »

The right Keatley turned up anyway!! 11/5 was a lovely price. Indeed the 11/5 did not last, I think they went off 6/4? Glasgow were looking good at one stage 16 points up but let Treviso back into it with stupid mistakes.


I'm back on Munster again this weekend. Racing are out of the competition. They had a big game against Toulon only 5 days ago which they lost. I expect there will be massive changes to the Metro team and will play a weakened side and keep their focus on the Top 14 seeing as they have nothing to play for.

Any players(if any) that play against Munster should have a few bruises to show! The opposite is true for Munster after they rang in the changes against Connacht so should be relatively fresh. The fact that Anthony Foley passed away when this fixture was due to be played should also ensure they are well up for this (similar to how they came out of the blocks against Glasgow). Metro were abysmal in their last two European fixtures both home and away to Glasgow.Munster have it all to play for, Metro have nothing to play for.

I'm backing now before the teams come out and I'd expect the line my move more after they do(if Metro play a weakened team as I expect). Generally -6 across the board that have the handicaps priced up. Munster outright are a bit too short for my liking.


Munster -5.5 with Betfair 17/20

Never in doubt

cup of tea

Clermont vs Toulon .

Clermont home games are high scoring.9 from the last 10 games played by them at home had over 39 points . This line was also passed the last 4 games played by Toulon away from home and the head to head game played this season ; Toulon - Clermont 23-21.

Edit: I missed the over 39 pts.

Over 40.5 points Betvictor 5/6

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

All home wins in the premiership
@ 4.6/1

sarries draw did me in

Del.Monte

A mad weekend's betting and I was back to square one until tonight when Wesley Fofana's very dodgy intercept try brought home the bacon. Just over 100% up. Happy days and some great rugby too.

sydthebeat

Double for the weekend

saints - 5 v castres
racing - 1 v Leicester

Johngoose

sydthebeat wrote: »

sarries draw did me in

Ya that one fecked sccumulators for me too!In hindsight Exeter +9 would have been good.:-(

Johngoose

sydthebeat wrote: »

Double for the weekend

saints - 5 v castres
racing - 1 v Leicester

Are Racing not sh1te though?

Johngoose

What do you make of Scarlets v Saracens?

Bazzo

Johngoose wrote: »

Are Racing not sh1te though?

Leicester have been pretty poor too. A case of the stoppable force vs the movable object.