Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

P_1

As silly season is almost over, Paddy already have odds up for the first round of the Top 14, I wonder if we'll enjoy markets going up two weeks in advance throughout the season



Main questions are if RM's Galácticos will gel first time out and cover the 14 points and what did happen to Thomond's famous 50 units

thomond2006

My 50 units went up to 63 units thanks to some timely backing of Cork and Limerick.
.
In terms of those odds above, those Racing odds look decent if they name their strongest side. However this match will be at La Rochelle and not Colombes, Racing moved it because they were concerned about a lack of attendance (Paris is basically on holiday in August!).

Other than Racing, nothing really stands out tbh. It's not in your list but Montpellier are slight favourites at home to Toulon, that one is very difficult to call!

Anyone like the look of Tim Visser to be top tryscorer in the Rabo again (for the 5th consecutive season), 5/1?

P_1

Oyanaxx to stay within 12 of Bayonne looks tempting I'd have to say. Not the biggest fan of season long bets but 5/1 does look decent for Visser to be top try scorer.

Looking forward to the Currie Cup starting up again too I'd have to say, seems a basic rule of thumb for that is to bet on unders for matches in Cape Town and Durban and overs for matches in the Veldt

irishbucsfan

I've decided ill be supporting Grenoble this season. Big Irish influence and I like their style and philosophy.

CatFromHue

The Top14 odds are usually out a fair bit ahead of the games so I don't think this is a new thing.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Boks 4/1 to win the rugby championship, bit of value in that I reckon

P_1

Super 15 final tomorrow, handicap is 8 points for the Chiefs. Going to play it safe and take the Chiefs to win at 1/3

wp_rathead

I know Fionn Carr is back with Connacht but Dannie Poolman for our Top Try scorer at 11/2 looks tasty

irishbucsfan

50 Units all set up and ready to go. Get ready to be crushingly defeated Thomond.

P_1

irishbucsfan wrote: »

50 Units all set up and ready to go. Get ready to be crushingly defeated Thomond.

50 units being slowly built up from 10, nearly there :cool:

Pudsy33

Think I'll do a little log myself, I'll start with 50 units also and We'll see who can do most.

jacothelad

'The make Paddy even wealthier,' tread,:D:D:D:D:D:D

thomond2006

irishbucsfan wrote: »

50 Units all set up and ready to go. Get ready to be crushingly defeated Thomond.

Cool, the more people that keep a log the better!

Pudsy33

50 units in, just need some rugby!

Rightwing

I'll do some bets, and keep records. A betting pot of €1,000.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

can we make a rule that people shouldn't mention amounts of money unless they are willing to post a screenshot of the bet or docket?

thomond2006

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

can we make a rule that people shouldn't mention amounts of money unless they are willing to post a screenshot of the bet or docket?

I don't really mind, if people want to mention figures then that's their prerogative. I'm only really interested in percentage returns.

The best way IMO this can work is posting your list of bets before the first match you've a stake on, that prevents any accusation of after-timing or selective screenshots. Of course sometimes this isn't possible before matches.

Podge_irl

If people want to claim they're betting more than they are that's their business.

I'm gonna give this 50 unit lark a go this season.

irishbucsfan

Looking forward to a good old unit-off this season. Just need the bloody season to start first.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I'll get into this, 50 units for Ugo

Rightwing

My betting pot is in fact quite small. I'm using it as a round figure & easy to calculate % terms, I don't do units or online stuff. Looking for a 100%+ gain.

irishbucsfan

Rightwing wrote: »

My betting pot is in fact quite small. I'm using it as a round figure & easy to calculate % terms, I don't do units or online stuff. Looking for a 100%+ gain.

Well then do the units system and show us you can do it

seanm92

thomond2006 wrote: »

Anyone like the look of Tim Visser to be top tryscorer in the Rabo again (for the 5th consecutive season), 5/1?

Looks a good bet, but hard to know how Edinburgh are going to play under Solomons, although I'd imagine Visser would be important to the gameplan. If you are looking for value I'd be inclined to back Eli Walker each way at 20/1, the ospreys are nearly guaranteed to score tries and as he's not likely to be a wales starter he should play a good amount of games.

Some good value also in choosing the top Connacht tryscorer, Fionn Carr is favourite at 6/4 but its difficult to know whether he'll be guaranteed a starting spot over O'halloran and Poolman, Poolman was top tryscorer last year but is only fourth in the betting, IMO he's a definite starter

Pudsy33

And we are up and running

4 units on Australia +5 at 2.0

Current balance: 46 units

thomond2006

Not sure I'll go for much this weekend given there's no form to speak of, but provisionally speaking I'd favour Montpellier over Toulon. Toulon will be missing quite a few players. I'm not sure how Montpellier's squad is shaping up atm.

irishbucsfan

ah yeah if i do bet i won't be risking any of my hard earned units

(we should get a league table going though!

thomond2006

irishbucsfan wrote: »

ah yeah if i do bet i won't be risking any of my hard earned units

(we should get a league table going though!

A table is easy enough to do if people use the 50 units system. Although perhaps if people aren't doing so well they won't want it overly advertised!

Pudsy33

thomond2006 wrote: »

A table is easy enough to do if people use the 50 units system. Although perhaps if people aren't doing so well they won't want it overly advertised!

I'm happy to publish my loses :cool: I think its a good idea

jamiedav2011

Montpellier at 14/1 each way for Top 14 is a nice bet. Reckon they'll be much improved this year again.

Micky Dolenz

Can someone please explain what the 50 units thing is about. Looks like fun.

thomond2006

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Can someone please explain what the 50 units thing is about. Looks like fun.

It's a way of expressing your weighting on each bet while not revealing any amounts.

Rightwing

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Can someone please explain what the 50 units thing is about. Looks like fun.

I think it's something like this, set up an online account,,,then say you put €500 in. 1 unit = €10 bet. So each tenner you win or lose,,,,you'd be making or losing a unit.

Micky Dolenz

thomond2006 wrote: »

It's a way of expressing your weighting on each bet while not revealing any amounts.

Ah I see. Basically a percentage.

Might be worth sticking a hundred quid in the pot and seeing how fast I lose it

Rightwing

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Ah I see. Basically a percentage.

Might be worth sticking a hundred quid in the pot and seeing how fast I lose it

It has it's advantages over the traditional style, you know whether you are up or down, the downside is one could end up betting on anything.

No, you're a...

I'll get into this.

Let's say I have €10 in an online betting account. That €10 equals 50 units. I'd like to wager 50c on a bet and would equal 2.5 units, is this correct?

Rightwing

No, you're a... wrote: »

I'll get into this.

Let's say I have €10 in an online betting account. That €10 equals 50 units. I'd like to wager 50c on a bet and would equal 2.5 units, is this correct?

Yes, that looks right to me.

irishbucsfan

No, you're a... wrote: »

I'll get into this.

Let's say I have €10 in an online betting account. That €10 equals 50 units. I'd like to wager 50c on a bet and would equal 2.5 units, is this correct?

Pretty much. So long as you keep that rate throughout the season it's a great method for measuring the effectiveness of your betting

Savant

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Pretty much. So long as you keep that rate throughout the season it's a great method for measuring the effectiveness of your betting

question from a new person,

Is this like "paper betting"?
I have been betting small amounts, just to see how I survive.
I know many places have peopless who say they win all the time.
I don't think its possible, maybe to win & be in profit over a season, yes, that is good, but not to win every bet every week!. thaat is fantasy no?

Please excuse if I am too forward, I would like to bet on the Top14. Not crazy. Just maybe 10 euros a match or something. I would like at the end of the season to maybe not hav elost any money.
Is this possible?

just simple bets , at 1.91 at the PMU (its like the french newsagents & where you can make bets) Here we are not ablre to go on the internet sites you have in the anglo saxon countries because of Sarkozy & his stupid laws!

thanks for any help you can give

Savant

Rightwing

Savant wrote: »

question from a new person,

Is this like "paper betting"?
I have been betting small amounts, just to see how I survive.
I know many places have peopless who say they win all the time.
I don't think its possible, maybe to win & be in profit over a season, yes, that is good, but not to win every bet every week!. thaat is fantasy no?

Please excuse if I am too forward, I would like to bet on the Top14. Not crazy. Just maybe 10 euros a match or something. I would like at the end of the season to maybe not hav elost any money.
Is this possible?

just simple bets , at 1.91 at the PMU (its like the french newsagents & where you can make bets) Here we are not ablre to go on the internet sites you have in the anglo saxon countries because of Sarkozy & his stupid laws!

thanks for any help you can give

Savant

No one wins all the time,,,,,,not even the bookie

thomond2006

I won't be betting this weekend, very difficult to read anything into matches with little to no previous form.

I'm looking forward to see who ye back!

P_1

Going to avoid the handicaps in France this weekend but I will have a small nibble on the Blue Bulls to cover a 5 point handicap against the Griquas in South Africa at 4/9

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

ok, so 5 shiny units on:

Pudsy33

Lost earlier so now on 46 units.
2 units going on Argentina +16 at 2.0

Current balance: 44 units

Hype710

Any reason not to back Racing to smash the 17 point cap against Brive?

thomond2006

Hype710 wrote: »

Any reason not to back Racing to smash the 17 point cap against Brive?

They're not playing at their home ground, but in La Rochelle. I don't know much about Brive and the signings they've made since promotion but Racing's lineup and bench is strong.

Judgement Day

First day back betting since being obliterated in the last Lions Test. 109% up on the start of the day with only the tryless Savea letting me down. Would have posted earlier but all the manipulating of my bets with Paint takes time.

P_1

In a similar vein to our resident railway expert/Jonah, I've also been a busy (and forgetful) bee betting wise the last few days.



The rolling accies are a good way to boost the bankroll from a small beginning I've found. In future though I'll try to remember to post them before I get things rolling.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Down to 45 units . Fecking argies

Pudsy33

44 myself

Fireball07

I have a question regarding online betting... with PaddyPower for example. I don't have an account with anyone, but I was thinking it could be handy... I'm assuming that you have deposit money before getting free signup bets or anything? My real question is via what methods can you deposit money at the start? I do not have a credit card or paypal account for example.

thomond2006

With Paddy Power, you can walk into a shop and deposit money into your account. I'm sure the other bookies with physical shops do the same.