Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025
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We will see what becomes of later on this afternoon / evening in the W, NW, N, NW and possibly the E later tonight or early morning.
Mesoscale Discussion below interesting but not overly severe I reckon but ESTOFEX warrants a focus on it so must have some threat. The main thing I think is some threat of thunderstorms and even if not electrified some convection producing heavy rain and some hail possible along with blustery winds . Looking at the soundings in my amateur opinion they don't look overly conducive to widespread thunderstorms, more in the isolated form.
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 24 May 2025 13:00 to Sat 24 May 2025 16:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 24 May 2025 12:55
Forecaster: TUSCHYThis Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the severe risk over parts of Ireland. Please keep in mind that the mentioned severe risk lasts beyond the MD's validity well into the overnight hours.
Latest remote sensing data indicates a robust dry slot approaching the MD area from the W, as a cold front rushes E/NE. The main focus for isolated DMC activity arises along the cold front but also in the postfrontal area, which resides ahead of an approaching back-bent occlusion and an attendant sharp surface trough. As the dry slot overspreads the highlighted area, some low-end to modest MUCAPE build-up is forecast. Latest 2m temperature and dewpoint readings reside aoa 15C and are in line with NWP guidance.
MUCAPE will be in the 200-500 J/kg range with DLS approaching 20 m/s. Hodographs show rather complex signatures, common for split-type fronts with elevated CAA overspreading near surface WAA. Hence it remains unclear how deep updrafts can grow before a more destructive veer-back interference occurs (as backing resides in a deep part of the CAPE area). Latest NWP guidance indicates at least isolated thunderstorm probabilities. This combined with very low LCLs point to a risk of a few shallow mesocyclones with a low-end tornado threat next to small hail/graupel and gusts (although even non-electrified convection will be accompanied by that risk). In addition some models bring LLCAPE in the 200 J/kg range with a slow decreasing trend beyond sunset. The risk extends well into the first part of the overnight hours.
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Lot of LLS and DLS available over Southern half of Ireland tomorrow. A warm plume of moist air in a small area of LP with warm front and cold front following and weakening occluded front after that but probably a lot of mixing happening which diminishes the chances of thunderstorms, temps getting up to the mid to high teens in a few spots and DP's in the mid teens, humid. MUCAPE getting up above 600 J/kg, maybe over in the SE potential peaking around the mid afternoon if there is enough instability. Breezy to windy over Southern counties. Soundings not great but a slight chance of a few isolated storms, some parameters present for funnels with all that shear available.
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Just my thoughts and ongoing learning and bored with the weather atm 😁….. Early indications for the possibility of lively thunderstorms overnight Weds into early Thurs morning. Looks like a warm enough day and humid on Weds getting into the high teens or low 20's in places, DP's probably remain close to the mid teens overnight in places, moisture rich unstable warm airflow moving up over Ireland from the South , initial model output showing high to very high Shear readings and a possibility of CAPE getting over 1000j/kg. Been a while since we had the chance of big storms overnight…maybe this is one opportunity, again just my thoughts, long way out yet.
Will be keeping an eye on the possibility of funnel/ tornadic activity with all that shear available, ESTOFEX will be interesting and possibly have a watch on it. Could get locally heavy flooding downpours and hail and possibly strong downdraughts giving locally strong sudden winds.
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No great change in the charts I think. Possibility of thunderstorms breaking out Weds late afternoon/ evening from the South and moving up over the country possibly into the early hours as the shortwave trough moves up over the country in the warm moist unstable airflow coming out of Spain being steered by the LP out to the W, HP to the East and the Jet Stream overhead moving from S to N. Preliminary guidance showing an active night is possible with lively storms and would think could have heavy falls of hail locally and possibly localized flooding. Lots of low level and Deep layer Shear available so wouldn't rule out funnel or tornadic activity and sudden downdraughts . Could see some big cells forming. Rainfall looking quite heavy now in places at the end of the week, big convective rainfall in places.
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Yeah the weather looks to approach from the South ,moving inland into the SW and up along the country and the trough looks to pivot perhaps over towards the E, NE. Still looking to get into the high teens or 20C or so might be around the mid teens overnight, humid muggy evening.
I find the ECM about the best this far out , the charts below just giving a rough idea and is sure to change a bit but it has been holding this look now for a few days. Indices still showing high possibility of some active storms, the K and KO index both quite high overnight along with the Lifted Index well in the negative and corresponding lapse rates all conducive to storm development. Deep Layer Shear up round 35 /40 kts or so, quite high and don't see that too often along with all the other parameters. Thurs fair possibility also. Bit to go yet but seems to be locking on.
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