Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025

Dazler97

Hoping some thunder ⛈️ happens here but I'm 1 of 7 counties not in a warning, here's hoping anyway , lovely and warm today 19c

Dazler97

Looking favourable for me in a while

Calibos

Brother just heading off to Dublin Airport to collect partner flying back from a Thunderstorm delayed flight from Trieste. Supposed to be landing about 7.15pm. Hopefully the storms have abated by then and her flight doesnt get diverted to Shannon or Belfast. That’d be a right PITA! Anyway looking at the radar, looks like as soon as Bro hits the M50 from Bray he’ll go from bone dry to torrential rain!

Ros4Sam24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123468394#Comment_123468394

Don’t think the moisture will be there by that stage unfortunately dazler. One or two rogue showers could not be ruled out though around 8 to 11

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123468358#Comment_123468358

that’s as far as it got, the Kildare-Dublin border, no strikes anywhere for approx the last half hour from what I’m seeing on the radar so storms dying out but very badly rain at least.
Very impressed with the accuracy of Met E forecast leaving Dublin out of the weather warnings, they got it down to almost the nearest mile!
edit: I’m wrong as usual, a few recent strikes in Meath.

crusd

The hype train is out in force on the usual places talking about thunderstorms “ravaging” Ireland. Meanwhile am here hoping for a little activity as I love a good thunderstorm.

Is there a way to counter these sites that exaggerate forecasts as they are both scaring people and turning people against met Éireann when the apocalypse doesn’t arrive

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123468419#Comment_123468419

even a few flashes of lightning ⚡️ I’ll settle for

Ros4Sam24

Bubbling up to my east and north

Dazler97

Weird the radar acting up I think, no rain here 🤔

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123468094#Comment_123468094

Remember it well. It was a very narrow but very aggressive storm that.

Thunder really bigging up here at the mo and sounding loader and louder with each successive clap.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123468670#Comment_123468670

Stop we had flash flooding and all. The roof caved in 1 of the pubs was crazy

pad199207

One from today

Dazler97

It's getting closer to me but wether we get some I'm not sure, it's moving south

Dazler97

Got a flash of lightning

Ros4Sam24

Same here, more coming from the north as well

Dazler97

Few flashes but looks as if it's moving south West, light rain but there even was steam off roads

Oneiric 3

More booms here but no idea where they are coming from. Must be a cell building somewhere around.

redsteveireland

Came pretty close to us in Craughwell, could hear some rumbles.

redsteveireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123469018#Comment_123469018

Good evening. A late developer to your north.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123469028#Comment_123469028

Evening' Sir.

Very unimpressive looking cell that, yet given some powerful sounding booms. Very highbased sounding.

Meteorite58

Record of sferics detected today.

Best combination of models today I reckon was between ECM, ARPEGE, AROME and WRF. UKMO HD also did very well, initially I though it was overdoing it but spot on really showing the potential of the spread of the storms. ECM did very well picking out further on up from the midlands later in the day and even had Donegal and the Northern counties highlighted and to fade out there.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123469265#Comment_123469265

Unreal looking 👌 wonder how many lightning strikes there was

Oneiric 3

To compliment Meteorite58's maps above. Like a Christmas tree. Note the cyclonic movement of the storms. W to E in the south. Broadly E to W in the north. A result of the upper low sitting over the center of the country for much of the day.

The Macho Man

Very disappointed Portarlington completely missed out yesterday. Its as though we were the vortex the whole thing circled around. All we got was one or two distant rumbles.

CrowdedHouse

It's funny the way it goes. I seemed to be surrounded by it yesterday too (near Roscrea) only distant rumbles.

But at least I had a great show Monday afternoon

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123469460#Comment_123469460

A very informative post, I think it more or less explains why Dublin wasn’t included in yesterdays warning.

chris2007

Whats the thoughts on thunderstorm potential for Saturday Afternoon/Evening

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123470709#Comment_123470709

There is certainly potential there for Leinster, Ulster and east Munster

Dazler97

Saturday evening looks interesting

Meteorite58

Thunderstorm potential travelling W to NE moving onshore from the West coast and travelling across the N Midlands, NW and through Northern counties perhaps. Instability associated with the fronts and wave as outlined by ESTOFEX below. LLS and DLS available , temps modest , moisture rich atmosphere, breezy to blustery during frontal passage especially imbedded convection and at the back edge of the cold Front and between the occluded front. Lifted index and lapse rates half decent, PWAT quite high so some heavy localized and blustery convective showers with spot flooding possible. Hail possible and with the added DLS some rotation leading to funnels possible, a touchdown, maybe need more instability and shear for that ??

Will see if any updates in the morning charts.

https://www.estofex.org/

Over NW Europe, a lead low-amplitude wave affects Ireland/Scotland during the forecast period in a more zonally aligned background flow/high index pattern. The passage of a cold and occluded front with an eastward spreading dry slot create a regional setup for somewhat enhanced thunderstorm probabilities.

... Ireland ...

Ongoing NWP issues keep confidence in organized convection on the lower side. Dependant on how fast the dry slot advances E, we could see a more extensive plume of enhanced MUCAPE, what EZ indicates. Other models like GFS or ICON stay way more reluctant regarding CAPE although all models show subtantial shear at all levels. This will certainly be a nowcast event, where trends for clearing behind the departing fronts and along the periphery of the dry slot need to be monitored next to the BL moisture. In case EZ verifies a few organized updrafts with some hail and gusts are possible including an isolated tornado threat with very low LCLs. Parts of the high probability lightning area could see an upgrade per mesoscale discussion if the more aggressive solution becomes more probable.

Soundings for Sligo half decent with some thunderstorm potential.