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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025
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20-03-2025 08:22PM#1
Been a quite winter for thunderstorms, lets see what the Spring brings.
Slight chance of some heavy convective showers moving into the South in the early morning, very marginal if they could produce thunderstorms, some decent shear available, not so bad lapse rates, enough for some big showers, will have to see if they become anyway electrified. Talking of somewhere between midnight and around 04.00 or thereabouts.
Slim pickings.
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Upper trough and associated cold pool of air aloft passing over the country tomorrow aiding convective weather giving big and at times blustery showers ( during very modest diurnal heating), some of hail and some isolated thunderstorms possible , more form the midlands up perhaps. Missing that big upper shear needed for big thunderstorms so if they do appear might be short lived pulse type. The 528dam line down over part of Ireland tomorrow so cooler and could see some white mountain tops in the W, NW, N tomorrow morning perhaps. Will be interesting to see if some big hail showers are reported and maybe locally blustery conditions out of some of the bigger showers.
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Good scattering of showers today , thunderstorm activity mainly confined to Northern areas. Had a few locally but quick moving heavy showers here in Kerry with some hail, lots of cool breezy clear spells also with plenty of sunshine. In all not a bad day in Kerry.
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Got quite warm here in Kerry this afternoon , close to 19C in a breezy to windy afternoon with relatively high humidity but no real cold in it, short sleeves and car windows open. Noticed some high up convection in the middle layers, fairly stiff wind coming off the land from an Easterly direction and that warm humid air might have met a convergence aiding instability just around the coast kicking up convection over the cold sea.
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Another warm day Friday and less so on Saturday as a cold front approaches in the late afternoon / evening time but amounts of rainfall don't look huge. Much colder air following and a trough transiting the country along with associated upper cold pool aiding instability and convective shower development, some quite heavy with the chance of hail . Possibility of thunderstorms in that kind of set up, trough looks to go negative during the day, currently showing the parameters of low and deep shear with decent lapse rates during the daytime. Will see how it develops.
528dam line back down over Ireland.
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Upper trough and associated cold pool aiding instability along with some levels of shear helping to producing convective showers over Ireland tomorrow more so from the afternoon and most possible from the midlands up to the North of the country. Sporadic in nature and if they do occur maybe most not lasting too long, more pulse like in nature. Hail possible and some of the convective showers a bit windy to blustery. A more organised shower line crossing the country tomorrow evening from the shortwave trough, could produce hail, maybe the wrong side of marginal for lightning, will see.
Monday again looking possible for some thunderstorm activity
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Looks like Northern counties with the best chance of some thunderstorm activity in the mid to late afternoon as the trough transits during peak diurnal heating, in saying that temperatures very meagre and parameters looking like at best barely marginal, some pulse like storms dying out quickly if they do occur, could be some heavy convective showers for a time as the trough passes over more so the Northern half of the country and Northern counties maybe getting the most rain.
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I'm interested to see if some convection grows into thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the area highlighted below where convergence zones could aid lift. Should get up around 16c in places so a bit of surface heating. Deep layer Shear is decent but parameters fairly marginal in general . Should get 200- 300 J/kg of CAPE so if there are enough sunny breaks there might just be chance for a couple of thunderstorms.
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Huge heavy connective type downpour just gone though here near Tralee with a rain rate for a time over 100mm /hr, dropped 3mm in a couple of minutes, gutters overflowing.
Got up to 13.9C during a break in the cloud when the sun got through briefly earlier, dropped to 12.9C after the shower but no doubt will go back up, RH at 89.3% and has a warm feel to the day. If enough heating got through maybe a couple of thunderstorms.
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Maybe in the high 100s J/kg in a few places tomorrow especially along those lines of convergence with temperatures climbing close to the mid 20's and DP's to the mid teens so convective showers a possibility and watching to see if a few isolated thunderstorms develop, if they do maybe later afternoon /early evening after peak diurnal heating but shear is weak though and there looks to be a fair cap in place so will see what develops.
Limerick 16.00
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