Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025

Condor24

Getting proper frontal thunderstorms up from Biscay are as rare as hens teeth, and this proves it. A damp squid of a day here in the midlands. The only rumbling I hear is my stomach, and I need some breakfast.

Robwindstorm

I think we may all go Squarecircles on this one . Wet and dark in Meath

Comhrá

Very dull overcast and humid morning in Limk. City. 16.3c, 94% r/h, 0.3mm overnight precip.

pureza

moderate rain has arrived in Arklow,about an hour later than the Met app suggested which isn’t too bad

I would not totally rule out the thing turning thundery yet

The day has begun not too dissimilar to October 19th 2022 when moderate rain turned very thundery eventually with frequent close lightning strikes for the rest of the day,in the middle of which this happened 👇

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1C1WxfFff2/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536316#Comment_123536316

societal expectations are too high in regards forecasting, particularly here in ireland, such accuracy simply isnt possible, and may never be, 'all models are wrong, but some are useful'

pureza

rain rate here in Arklow is up over 10mm/hr at the moment so quite heavy

Dew point is high relative to temperature 14.1c dp

14.7c Air

pureza

11.2mm so far

No thunder

Rain rate currently 7mm/hr

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536150#Comment_123536150

I think it is now time that damp squids had its own special thread!! 😉

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536673#Comment_123536673

Thunderstorm warning gone

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1933105217131995481?t=C2Era7YwEosSZbdTKAyAEQ&s=19

pureza

of course it’s gone

Mind you it was mentioned about 77 times on the 9 news forecast last night 😩

Still lashing here in Arklow,13.6mm and rising

Meteorite58

Yeah looks like an almost complete dead duck regarding thunderstorms so far apart from a few in Munster yesterday. Models have really rowed back on potential but there is still some potential today, albeit at a much reduced scale and isolated at that.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536830#Comment_123536830

I just counted

Thunderstorms and lightning was said 13 times on lasts nights nine news 😆

The forecast length was 2 minutes and 6 seconds

The Macho Man

Damp Squib lads….. not Squid 🙄😂

Was looking at Blitzortung, the lightning only made it as far as half way up the Bay of Biscay then into France. Nothing really made it much further

Scrabbel

Lightning stopped moving north at the Channel Islands. Might drift into southern England but not looking good when ME remove the warning.

Stephen_Maturin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536150#Comment_123536150

As marine creatures squids tend to be damp by nature! 😂

cml387

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123536958#Comment_123536958

We know that it's a damp squib. The moist crustacean is now being used in an ironic way.

Elmer Blooker

still time, some places will get thunderstorms most likely Munster and Connaught in the early hours of Sat I would think.

Ros4Sam24

Yes Saturday has caught my attention with Arome picking up on storms in the south. >700 CAPE too

JCX BXC

Absolutely torrential downpour in West Clare, seemingly out of nowhere!

Meteorite58

Will most definitely study why the thunderstorms did not develop and how the models in a space of a day or so rowed back so much on the potential, yes got the heaviest rainfall amounts fairly right in general but such a no show regarding electrical activity, it is disheartening when trying to give it a shot at looking at the science of how and when storms develop but hey the meteorological agencies had thought they would develop also. The fact that forecasts need to be made in advance of the event is always putting oneself in the position that they may not materialize and getting it wrong. You know what….going forward this mainly failed thunderstorm event so far will be a great opportunity to learn from. Upwards and onwards 😊.

Anyway , the front travelling up the country in the early hours over relatively warm unstable air and DP's in the mid teens might produce some isolated activity around the midlands, some heavy bursts of rain.

Friday locally will be watching advancing rain and convection moving up from the South to see if the areas of convergence help to produce some storms in Kerry /North Kerry, often get them just on the coasts with a set up like this after they have travelled and grown over the hills and mountians .

Will see if the transiting shortwave trough and associated upper Low on Sat produces some storms in S, SE counties especially, as mentioned above, deep layer shear not great but down low nearer the ground areas of convergence might come into play aiding lift, modest temperatures but uppers getting that bit colder aiding instability .

ClimateObserver

A big let down considering the forecast, however the rainfall predictions were much better. I guess it's easy to slap a figure on rainfall for Location X, Ireland.

8pm totals since midnight:

Some parts of Munster really escaped today, and still more to come across the north and east - where some heavy totals have already occur ed. Spot flooding in parts.

Meteorite58

Big heavy rain from the embedded convection along the front making its way towards the SW, forcing in effect perhaps, will it spark, maybe get some lift off the mountians ??

pureza

UKMO has some pretty beefy stuff near Irish Sea coastas 5am tomorrow,let’s see

Ros4Sam24

Saturday still holding interest I believe for some thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. Arome and Arpege supporting a more widespread event than earlier, with decent Cape values although no DLS to go along with it

dsmythy

I'm taking this Saturday slowly. I've been hurt before.

Elmer Blooker

Now … I can’t believe that this cannot give thundery rain at the very least! Not a single strike!

Later maybe?

Meteorite58

Nice DLS forecast for the afternoon here in Kerry, 18C now and humid, sunshine, bit hazier now, convection bubbling up. Area of Convergence / sea breeze in N Kerry might spark off some storms later in the afternoon. Will see.

Comhrá

Wouldn't be surprised if we had a few sparks here in Limerick later today. The clouds have that look of promise and the temp is hitting 20c just now.

Meteorite58

Has that look here too, at least heavy convective showers....will it spark??

Elmer Blooker

some very big storms around Brittany but Netweather radar showing no strikes whatsoever so I’ll be giving that pile of crap and miss today.