⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

Meteorite58

⚠️Enough model consensus at this stage to warrant a thread for Storm potential to impact parts of Ireland on Fri from early morning. Uncertainty yet with track and strength but the models have been showing very strong to stormy conditions sweeping into Ireland from a very deep system with very tight gradient and large powerful wind field, GFS down to 933hPa and others around 942hPa having rapidly deepened on approach been driven by an extremely fast jet. sdanseo has a great post on the charts thread that they might post here about the models possibly being powered up a bit too much from the Jet readings, interesting and will see if it moderates over the coming days. As it stands it would have a big impact on power supplies and damage caused to properties but only as it currently shows. This could moderate and the track could change more off the NW but cant be ignored either so needing a close watch.

ECM and GFS remarkably close this far out.

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Thanks.

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sparrowcar

ME's take on it for now. Will be interesting to see their wording come Wed eve/Thurs.

Friday: There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Friday but current indications suggest that it will be a very windy day with near gale force southwesterly winds developing, potentially reaching gale force in places. Heavy rain at first, possibly turning to sleet or snow locally. The rain will clear to sunshine and showers through the day. Afternoon highs of 7 to 11 degrees.

Slimity

If the ECM and GFS verify, are we looking at Orange warnings for the North West and Yellow for the rest of the country most likely?

Gerianam

Red warning, one would imagine.

Meteorite58

ICON possibly a bit OTT but still adding to the theme of a powerful storm.

Extremely high seas off the Western coasts, fortunately in neap tides during highest surge but still a concern I would imagine.

Galway

Donegal Ken

Not very often you see the UKV show these sort of winds or purple. That's gusts of around 170km/hr to 190/hr.

Thats would do some crazy damage

Meteorite58

To Note at this stage ARPEGE keeping the strongest swathe of winds off the NW, still very strong along the W and NW but not penetrating inland as much. Still a bit out of reach for the ARPEGE, by Weds should be more accurate.

ICON Staying that bit more off shore and not as windy as the others. I think the latest run is an outlier.

GEM very strong and stormy in over parts of Ireland.

ACCESS-G very stormy

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078344#Comment_123078344

For Donegal?

adocholiday

Not too often you see the ECM with worse outcomes than ICON! Interestingly the ECM AI model has consistently been keeping the storm a good bit further north than the regular model. I wonder is something like this a good test for it or such an outlier that it can't really handle it. I work a bit in this space so it's very interesting to me.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078433#Comment_123078433

Depending on the track could be red warnings for a lot of the western half of the country. I see a lot of reds being issued with this and widespread orange. Parts of the SE might get away lighter.

sparrowcar

Wind direction and strength will be a big factor at Dublin Airport on Fri. Anything coming from southwest at speeds above 40kts leads to go-arounds and diversions. Present indications suggest straight across the main runways which will cause disruption if it verifies. Max winds gusts of 66kts(122kph) is no joke for the Dublin region.

pauldry

Don't think RED warning for Sligo. Orange probably here. Small core off really high winds off Belmullet so Marine RED.

I'd imagine much of Connaught and Ulster will go Orange and the rest of Ireland Yellow. Though it looks insane on the charts it's lucky it's a SW and not NW wind or even W. Most of the high powered jet part of the storm peaks 100km off the NW coast then batters us with a fairly serious but not killer type storm.

So far that's my take. Will likely change. Hopefully to moderation and not more severe.

Thunder87

If current model projections were to verify this will be a really big one, red warning without question with sustained hurricane force possible on the west coast.

It's rare to see charts like that reach the semi-reliable timeframe, my guess is we'll see things level off to a more typical strong winter storm with gusts in the 140kph range, but potential for quite a bit worse seems to be there.

One thing though is it looks like it's already filling in by the time it reaches us which I'd guess limits sting jet possibility

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078505#Comment_123078505

Sorry but in my opinion I think your post is highly inaccurate. The charts as they stand would warrant a red for a large swathe of Northwestern counties!! I don't think we'd be watching this run on run a week out (now 4 days) about a Marine red!!!

Of course your entitled to your opinion as I hope I am.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078553#Comment_123078553

Agreed. Red for NW counties and Orange elsewhere I would think!

JanuarySnowstor

18z Icon just out, massive upgrade!! This storm is on Steroids!! God help those in Northwest

igCorcaigh

Holy fluich! I really hope that doesn't come to pass. 😳

sryanbruen

A 100 mph (160 km/h) wind gust hasn't been achieved at an official Irish station since January 2012.

Darwin got very close in February 2014 with 99 mph (159 km/h) at Shannon Airport.

Be interesting to see where the figures stand Friday afternoon but hopefully it's not as severe as models like UKV show.

JohnySwan

Looks like my new weather station will get a run out.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078665#Comment_123078665

Was that also the last time F12 was recorded?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078718#Comment_123078718

Mace Head had F12 120 km/h sustained winds during Darwin. If excluding that, January 2012 would be the most recent.

Malin Head 169 km/h gust with 126 km/h sustained winds 03 January 2012

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078665#Comment_123078665

Ophelia was the strongest wind storm I have experienced in this part of the country, worse than Darwin. But that's very subjective.

Dickie10

would a storm like that on the charts even be possible? what sort of science would drive a storm or make a storm like that? how rare is that storm in ireland? when was the last one like the chart above?

.Donegal.

Thanks @sryanbruen

GFS

Rebelbrowser

looking at the 12z gfs my only question on opening this thread was which of the about 10 storms the gfs forecasts for the next fortnight were you referencing? I hate wet stormy weather, especially when you get a train of storms..,,

Meteorite58

ICON back to full force, much closer pass and very steep gradient after deepening rapidly.

That is some grouping now of very strong stormy charts.

squarecircles

18Z STRIKING THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND GREATER DUBLIN.

Cork2021

cork escapes the worst of this it seems, thank feck! Had enough weather especially after the snow and Darragh

JanuarySnowstor

OK Get out the film Day after tomorrow lol...look at these storms lining up after the main event, 2 more whoppers!!

M.T. Cranium

Some of these charts duplicate what is known about track and central pressure of the Jan 1839 “big wind” storm.

I hope models develop a different view by Wednesday when this storm is beginning its explosive development phase.
A wave from the northern Gulf of (whatever) is predicted to bring a rare snowfall to the Gulf coast region, and then exit at high speed towards Bermuda. Once there, it interacts with a trailing wave from the earlier n.e. states low (10-15 cm snow yesterday), by then into west Greenland. The combination is being shown on all guidance as a very explosive low reaching central pressures of 935 mbs somewhere west of Ireland.

If that somewhere is south of 53N and east of 25W, and the jet is not angled to divert the low towards Faeroes, then an extreme outcome is possible. The two ways “out” would be (a) not as strong a development phase, or (b) a rapidly lifting jet to steer extreme winds towards marine areas north/west of Donegal Bay only. (Gem is close to doing that, not rest of models)

I think we all know it’s only a matter of time before nature repeats what happened in 1839, apparently a similar storm that deepened in a bad spot and tracked too close to Ireland’s coast to avoid coastal hurricane force winds onto land. Darwin (2014) and 27 Feb 1903 as well as Dec 1886 were also extreme in different regions (different tracks and development), but we await a close duplication of 1839. (various tropical events would need a separate discussion)

It will be a tense few days of model analysis.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z is in fairly unknown territory for Ireland, as strong an output as you are likely to see. Large swathes of 130 -140 km/h going across Ireland ?? Good thing this is not the last run on Thurs…….Time enough to moderate.

The center closer again to the coasts , central pressure more in line now with the others.