⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

TrailLegend

Edit (nvm)

JanuarySnowstor

I was thinking there were slight downgrades this morning but then along comes ECM. By far the worst approach and depth for widespread destruction. All models agree now on speeding the storm up. Its well across us by 6am Friday

M.T. Cranium

Re Arpege model, sustained winds 140 km/hr near Galway Bay, chart uses a colour code off the scale in the legend.

This of course could all be a model over-reaction but certainly the large-scale set-up is what you would associate with a major windstorm. And Arpege is not seen as being prone to over-egging wind speeds like ICON.

.Donegal.

Tralee ECM

■ Main run: 

110

Ensemble mean: 

 158

Max 256

Min 87

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079378#Comment_123079378

If it wants to come overnight perhaps this is better.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM certainly a bit further south this morning

Ros4Sam24

Tbh Arpege nearly always shows worst case scenario, wouldn’t expect a shift towards from the other models

bazlers

Morning All, a bit more excitement in the charts anyhow. Wheather that is for the good or bad im not sure...depends on your preference but no one wants to see anyone facing any hardship.

I guess if it goes further south and east a largar swath of the country see strong winds

If it goes on its route north east less of the country sees strong winds but the north west and coastal counties of connacht will see a more extreme outcome. Either way the west and north west on current guidiance are in for a rattling.

Mars Bar

I have to drive from Galway to Dublin Airport on Friday and get a flight 🤦🏻‍♀️. I need to be there 5.30am for a flight at 8.30am.

Am I in potential bother?

ascophyllum

Looking at those charts if you leave Galway at 2.30am or so you'd be fine. The motorway rarely experiences storm danger, no trees etc. Even if you left later you'd be fine, you'd have a hell of a tailwind after 6am or so.

Collie D

Is this expected to be a prolonged one? I’m driving the opposite way to Mars Bar - Dublin to Ballina - on Friday. Had aimed to be on the road early but that sounds like a non-runner now.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079471#Comment_123079471

As MTC says himself the Aperge doesnt have a tendency to over do wind speeds compared to Icon. Anyhow it will change many times between now and Friday.

squonk

Can we open a side by side model thread for upcoming events at the same time as these discussion threads? I tend to find the T120+/<T120 threads don’t really get the same updates once these dedicated threads start. Unfortunately for anyone wanting to focus on what’s upcoming there is too much chatter to wade through here. It’s not a bad thing and discussion should happen but I think a technical and non technical thread for events should be the way to go, or at least trial it. Those just needing the latest information can quickly get it at the tech thread but if you have more time on your hands, you can pop onto the discussion thread.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079546#Comment_123079546

Mod Note: As in the OP this will be the main thread. There won't be a technical thread but can post in the charts thread or winter thread, etc . Expected to get very busy so posters asked to stay on topic.

Thanks

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079532#Comment_123079532

Generally I'd agree but in this case ARPEGE has been well out on its own with the winds that it's forecasting for the past 2 days, so it's either seeing something the other models are not or it's overdoing it. Lets hope it's the latter! But as MT said it's all pure speculation until we see the storm powering up. I'm really hoping that the model outputs we're seeing now are just due to the complexity of the setup, and that Thursday will show a bit of moderation and a shift northwards.

pauldry

ECM looks destructive GFS looks a quite bad storm but we've seen that before. I still think it will moderate a bit and only Connemara will see 140kph plus and perhaps extremities of Mayo. Other areas 130kph and under we've had before. Hope ECM can follow GFS.

Meteorite58

Scanning through all the models quickly this morning, can't post charts as starting work but some of the main points I see....No shift off the NW, in the main models more centering the strongest winds in over Ireland. Still a couple of days out so changes to track, timing and strength inevitable. The strength of the winds being shown cannot be understemated nor denied but still a chance to moderate a bit. As they stand it has the look of a strong storm giving stormy conditions inland . Some of the charts prone to overdoing it early on are off the scale atm.

It has the look of a high impact storm well inland , most parts of the country could experience strong winds,some counties could see high impact stormy conditions for a number of hours.

stephenjmcd

Supposed to be flying back to Dublin on Friday evening from England, should be fun to say the least if models hold up….

Hippo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079620#Comment_123079620

I'd been planning to fly into Knock on Friday lunchtime! Doesn't look too likely now.

ingalway

Is this more of an overnight Thursday high impact event for Galway area, or would it be more Friday day? I'm surrounded by trees and dread overnight storms.

km79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079632#Comment_123079632

also flying in from London but early evening

Should be ok by then

JanuarySnowstor

A big move South now by 06 gfs also.

All of a sudden now Kerry and Cork look primed aswell as midlands

pad199207

GFS looks a smidgen of an upgrade and further south. Astonishing really.

endainoz

This is quite worrying with the further track south, will be keeping a very close eye on this, but being near the coast in North Clare this new track puts us right in the firing line.

giveitholly

Officially named

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1881643535696630155?t=EjaSw2psuKy_XHbD8oLtaQ&s=19

KingdomRushed

Yes, GFS is a case of 'you had my curiosity but now you have my attention'. A very very dangerous storm shown on the 6z.

pad199207

Now named by the UK Met Office

bazlers

Potential for stingjets and tornados to be embeded too. Its crazy to imagine it hasnt spawned yet and here we are contemplating changing our plans for its arrival time!

arctictree

Snow too on the latest 6z GFS for the North/North West early Friday and for the south on Saturday

pad199207

Looks like it hasn’t been named now….