⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123080957#Comment_123080957

A million and one things in the storm's pipeline could alter its genesis and later positions for forecasts to give a more northerly track without an effect on the strength of the storm.

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123080898#Comment_123080898

Strongest on record was Debbie in 1961 with 181kph gust at Malin Head. Strongest in living memory for more people than not would be the December 1998 storm I mentioned at the start of the thread with 178kph also at Malin Head

Based on current forecasts this could give both a run for their money. Though as always when extremes are forecast the probability is hugely stacked against it actually happening so let's see, hopefully we get some downgrades or this could be a historic one

.Donegal.

ECM AI low is further north

DOCARCH

At the moment, GFS forecasting 74 knot gusts in Greystones around 9am Friday.

Had a 70 knot gust in Greystones during Darragh and that was enough for me!

dinorebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081124#Comment_123081124

Living on the top of a hill in Donegal that's a bit worrying.

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123080836#Comment_123080836

Given the time near morning commute and school run times in the west its highly likely it will go red if the models verify Thursday at all close to the criteria.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081124#Comment_123081124

It's been maintaining a more northerly/westerly track since the 12z run on the 19th and hasn't really deviated much from it at all since then. It will be interesting to see if it continues to hold steady with it once we get into the more reliable time frame.

Edit: ARPEGE and ICON 12z runs both out, very very slight nudge north again for both on this run. A couple of hundred miles either direction is going to make a huge difference in the areas that get worst hit with this one.

pad199207

This is insane stuff! New territory if you ask me. Im fairly sure that this will cool off! 🥴

That’s also probably the best outcome for land areas so to speak

WolfeEire

Storm Eowyn will begin as a shortwave off the southeast coast of the USA in the early hours of Wednesday and will go undergo undergo rapid cyclogenesis (fast and intensive development) in the mid-Atlantic on Thursday. The system will take 48 hours to travel over 3,500 miles across the Atlantic toward Ireland.

ednwireland

looking at ventusky ( set on icon model ) looks like will whip through fairly quickly with strongest wins between 8am and midday. only ! showing 90mph max for sw donegal.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081187#Comment_123081187

Cool off? as in you mean peak out at sea?

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081223#Comment_123081223

ICON 12z is a fast mover but the most impactful winds for a lot of the country would be at peak commute times so we may see elevated warnings as a result. Anyway, all speculation until Thursday it would seem, the storm hasn't even started to form yet.

pad199207

Upgrade on the GFS. Clare and into Galway Bay get battered on this run.

Thunder87

Latest GFS with ~170kph gusts in the SW and >140kph widespread across much of the country

KingdomRushed

GFS is frightening. First time I have said that about a modelled wind storm since Darwin.

Ros4Sam24

The Swiss model, only goes out to 6am Friday 😯

Supercell

Lots of power outages again, praying for a more northerly track and the Wicklow mountains to shelter here in South Dublin a bit. Not a fan of wind storms.

Cork2021

not being alarmist or anything but the country needs to get prepared? Or am I being alarmist?

onacourse

thanks, it’s at 7.30am - am now considering booking flights for the Thursday evening to avoid the storm!

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081329#Comment_123081329

The country is well prepared for storms. The National Emergency Directorate is constantly monitoring, Councils are being regularly briefed and the utility companies will be getting their ducks in a row. Bright coloured charts can sometimes be scarier than the reality. All people need to do is observe all updates from Met Eireann and take precautiions as instructed. Just don't be planning a hike of Carrauntoohill Friday morning.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081341#Comment_123081341

plans ruined now 🤣

Robwindstorm

I'm just wondering with a large deep storm forecasted, will the center elongate and form two centers, with the main one veering more northwest out to sea and the second glancing the west and northwest coast. It's happening alot more in recent years IMO and the result is much weaker storm.

Just to note, very similar pattern to last year. Storm Isha hit pretty severely on January 21st followed by less intense Storm Jocelyn on the 23rd. This followed a very frosty spell, a week later than this year's snow and ice.

Donegal Ken

From Met Eireann

• Named by the UK Met Office, Storm Éowyn (pronounced Ay-oh-win) becomes the fifth named storm of the 2024/2025 season. It will bring wet and very windy weather to Ireland starting Thursday night and during Friday (24th January).
• Why have we named it? Éowyn is forecast to be a deep low-pressure system, currently set to track to the northwest of Ireland introducing strong southeasterly winds which will veer west to south-westerly and intensify through Friday morning. The system will also bring spells of heavy rain across different parts of the country and sleet and snow to parts of the west and north in particular.
• A weather ADVISORY has been issued for Ireland, and weather warnings will follow as this event comes within the range of our high-resolution model (2 days ahead) which will provide more detailed information.

Main impacts will start to be felt overnight on Thursday and through Friday, with some potentially lasting longer:

• Dangerous travelling conditions
• Displaced objects
• Fallen trees
• Power outages
• Poor visibility in any sleet or snow
• Surface water flooding, as the ground is saturated countrywide
• Localised river flooding, in view of the rainfall totals expected over the weekend
• High seas: wave overtopping at high tide due to strong on-shore winds.

We are closely monitoring the situation and will provide updated information as required.

 

METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION

High impact weather is expected for Ireland on Thursday night and on Friday as a deepening low-pressure system, Storm Éowyn, tracks close to the northwest of Ireland. Very strong winds are forecast with spells of heavy rain. Initially the rain will transition to sleet or snow in some parts of the northwest and north of the country, but it will quickly transition back to rain as the system moves through.

Deputy Head of Forecasting, Liz Coleman, says:

“Storm Éowyn will bring wet and very windy conditions on Friday, especially in the west and northwest. The very strong southwest winds with damaging gusts will start to be felt late on Thursday and will cause dangerous travelling conditions on Friday, with the likelihood of trees down and potentially power outages.  Wave overtopping is also expected at high tide. There could be localised flooding further into Saturday associated to the heavy rain and to the snow melt.

Western and northwestern counties are likely to see status orange wind warnings as a minimum, but we are monitoring the situation closely and will issue warnings as Met Éireann’s high resolution model, which provides information two days ahead, comes into play. We are in close contact with the NDFEM and emergency management stakeholders and will provide timely updates as the situation progresses.

There will be a short respite from the weather on Saturday as Éowyn moves away, but we are also watching a different low-pressure system, forecast to bring impactful winds and further rain on Sunday. However, in this case the situation is still too uncertain; we will provide updates as the week progresses.”

 

DayInTheBog

Anywhere we can but a large supply of adult nappies? 😰

aidanodr

Is this the fault of the Jet stream or AMOC or bit of both?

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc.html#:~:text=The%20AMOC%20is%20a%20system,surface%20water%20throughout%20the%20world.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081425#Comment_123081425

New research shows that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which helps to regulate the climate and weather of Northwestern Europe, has not altered in 60 years. This is in contrast to previous studies and ensuing media coverage suggesting otherwise.

https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/no-amoc-decline/

This has all good to do with the deep cold over the USA. It serves to fire up the jetstream which is energised as it wraps are around the cold airmass and is flung like a slingshot across the Atlantic. The conditions for rapid cyclogensis are ideal. We have experienced such storm developments in the past and will continue to do so in the future. It's a good old fashioned Atlantic storm.

Meteorite58

Hard to believe the GFS is even stronger right across Ireland on the 12Z then previous runs.

Took the plunge today, been meaning to for a while, picked up a generator. Could very well be needing it here in Kerry. Must look at the Valentines storm , this at the moment ,from memory looks worse and more widespread . Must dig out the historic charts later. The Global models are tightening in on track, I wonder is ARPEGE a bit outside the concensus being further to the NW.

Plenty Of rain with it too

Rain from the West

Rare enough to see 200+ kmh wind gusts on the models in this part of the world, but how about 300+. Arpege 12z:

onacourse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123080051#Comment_123080051

It’s at 7.30-am on Friday morning. I can get flights for them for around €280 on Thursday eve to Liverpool, which is a lot but this is my son’s first visit to Anfield and he is already talking about it as being “the best day in his entire life” so the pressure is on….

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081329#Comment_123081329

Dont worry, there won't be a loaf of bread in the shops from now till Saturday