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⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

24567106

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 583 ✭✭✭noplacehere


    no. Just no. Not this week please! Those are blooming awful charts when you have work being done in the house and fecking skip bags in the front garden 🤯🤯😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    latest fax … red for Donegal, orange elsewhere by the look of this. Snow showers packing in later.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I was working in my local shopping centre in Douglas from noon to 6pm on Xmas Eve 1997. Was calm enough when I started work and calm enough after. By all accounts I missed the end of the world while inside during the intervening hours! A glass tower outside the shopping centre collapsed and could have killed people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    The snow Post Big storm is often an occurrence. Tasty bit of snow post Darwin at home 2014, big storm 5th January 1991, fairly widespread heavy snow 8th January.

    After the storm of 9 February 1988 snow at home.

    All these storms left cold north westerlies in their wake.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,850 ✭✭✭Birdnuts




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    We went out- it was pints by candlelight in the local pub and navigating downed power lines on the way home. Was it bravery or stupidity- chopper Reid would have said spot on, Bevan. I think this storm will track further to the north west on later runs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,382 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ah crap to this storm. Yer charts do indeed show it red over Sligo now I look into more detail. Feck this. The only thing I was seeing earlier was the brunt going into Mace HD and Belmullet and Filling slightly before Sligo.

    This may still happen. Like 140kph in Connemara and 130kph in Kerry and Belmullet then 120kph Sligo but charts have 140kph here on lots of charts now.

    All I say is go away Eowyn!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Little change on 00z runs, GFS a little later to develop but reaches a similar conclusion. (European yet to appear) … in any case, this is all going to be speculation until Wed 18z at earliest, given timing of rapid development.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Aperge ups the ante . 200km/h + gusts in to a portion of Galway. That’s surely a model first. Gusts of 180km/h+ for parts mayo,Galway,Donegal and perhaps extreme NW Clare. Gusts of 160km-179km/h penetrate far inland especially across Galway,Mayo. Also parts of Sligo,Donegal, Clare,Roscommon and Kerry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2 TrailLegend


    Edit (nvm)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I was thinking there were slight downgrades this morning but then along comes ECM. By far the worst approach and depth for widespread destruction. All models agree now on speeding the storm up. Its well across us by 6am Friday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Re Arpege model, sustained winds 140 km/hr near Galway Bay, chart uses a colour code off the scale in the legend.

    This of course could all be a model over-reaction but certainly the large-scale set-up is what you would associate with a major windstorm. And Arpege is not seen as being prone to over-egging wind speeds like ICON.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Tralee ECM

    ■ Main run: 

    110

    Ensemble mean: 

     158

    Max 256

    Min 87



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,559 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    If it wants to come overnight perhaps this is better.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,099 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    ECM certainly a bit further south this morning



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Tbh Arpege nearly always shows worst case scenario, wouldn’t expect a shift towards from the other models



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Morning All, a bit more excitement in the charts anyhow. Wheather that is for the good or bad im not sure...depends on your preference but no one wants to see anyone facing any hardship.

    I guess if it goes further south and east a largar swath of the country see strong winds

    If it goes on its route north east less of the country sees strong winds but the north west and coastal counties of connacht will see a more extreme outcome. Either way the west and north west on current guidiance are in for a rattling.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭Mars Bar


    I have to drive from Galway to Dublin Airport on Friday and get a flight 🤦🏻‍♀️. I need to be there 5.30am for a flight at 8.30am.

    Am I in potential bother?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Looking at those charts if you leave Galway at 2.30am or so you'd be fine. The motorway rarely experiences storm danger, no trees etc. Even if you left later you'd be fine, you'd have a hell of a tailwind after 6am or so.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,433 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    Is this expected to be a prolonged one? I’m driving the opposite way to Mars Bar - Dublin to Ballina - on Friday. Had aimed to be on the road early but that sounds like a non-runner now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    As MTC says himself the Aperge doesnt have a tendency to over do wind speeds compared to Icon. Anyhow it will change many times between now and Friday.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,149 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Can we open a side by side model thread for upcoming events at the same time as these discussion threads? I tend to find the T120+/<T120 threads don’t really get the same updates once these dedicated threads start. Unfortunately for anyone wanting to focus on what’s upcoming there is too much chatter to wade through here. It’s not a bad thing and discussion should happen but I think a technical and non technical thread for events should be the way to go, or at least trial it. Those just needing the latest information can quickly get it at the tech thread but if you have more time on your hands, you can pop onto the discussion thread.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: As in the OP this will be the main thread. There won't be a technical thread but can post in the charts thread or winter thread, etc . Expected to get very busy so posters asked to stay on topic.

    Thanks



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Generally I'd agree but in this case ARPEGE has been well out on its own with the winds that it's forecasting for the past 2 days, so it's either seeing something the other models are not or it's overdoing it. Lets hope it's the latter! But as MT said it's all pure speculation until we see the storm powering up. I'm really hoping that the model outputs we're seeing now are just due to the complexity of the setup, and that Thursday will show a bit of moderation and a shift northwards.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,382 ✭✭✭pauldry


    ECM looks destructive GFS looks a quite bad storm but we've seen that before. I still think it will moderate a bit and only Connemara will see 140kph plus and perhaps extremities of Mayo. Other areas 130kph and under we've had before. Hope ECM can follow GFS.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Scanning through all the models quickly this morning, can't post charts as starting work but some of the main points I see....No shift off the NW, in the main models more centering the strongest winds in over Ireland. Still a couple of days out so changes to track, timing and strength inevitable. The strength of the winds being shown cannot be understemated nor denied but still a chance to moderate a bit. As they stand it has the look of a strong storm giving stormy conditions inland . Some of the charts prone to overdoing it early on are off the scale atm.

    It has the look of a high impact storm well inland , most parts of the country could experience strong winds,some counties could see high impact stormy conditions for a number of hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,422 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Supposed to be flying back to Dublin on Friday evening from England, should be fun to say the least if models hold up….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭Hippo


    I'd been planning to fly into Knock on Friday lunchtime! Doesn't look too likely now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭ingalway


    Is this more of an overnight Thursday high impact event for Galway area, or would it be more Friday day? I'm surrounded by trees and dread overnight storms.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,361 ✭✭✭✭km79


    also flying in from London but early evening

    Should be ok by then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    A big move South now by 06 gfs also.

    All of a sudden now Kerry and Cork look primed aswell as midlands



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,301 ✭✭✭pad199207


    GFS looks a smidgen of an upgrade and further south. Astonishing really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,257 ✭✭✭endainoz


    This is quite worrying with the further track south, will be keeping a very close eye on this, but being near the coast in North Clare this new track puts us right in the firing line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭giveitholly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 485 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Yes, GFS is a case of 'you had my curiosity but now you have my attention'. A very very dangerous storm shown on the 6z.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,301 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Now named by the UK Met Office



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Potential for stingjets and tornados to be embeded too. Its crazy to imagine it hasnt spawned yet and here we are contemplating changing our plans for its arrival time!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,399 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Snow too on the latest 6z GFS for the North/North West early Friday and for the south on Saturday



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,301 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Looks like it hasn’t been named now….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    GFS and ICON 06z both showing a significant shift southwards now. Red-level warnings for almost the entire southern half of the country for 2-3 hours, timings would vary from place to place. Dublin would be well within the red with this run for sure. GFS also looking 'rational' in terms of offshore wind speeds which makes it all the more worrisome.

    I wonder is there a possibility of this going so far South as to miss us altogether? Probably wishful thinking looking at the jet forecast!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,582 ✭✭✭recyclops


    Flying home late Friday evening so hopefully the worst of it has passed by Dublin looking less likely as it gets closer but live in hope



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    I think as MT said in his forecast we really won't know the exact track of this until Wednesday afternoon onwards. I



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6 onacourse


    Hi all, thanks for all the information on these threads, great to get the benefit of everyone’s knowledge. My husband and 9 year old son are due to travel by ferry to Holyhead on Friday morning (early) to get over to Liverpool for the match, the tickets were a present from Santa so wondering should I try and book flights for them to avoid disappointment? Thanks!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well that would be a plot twist if it ended up too far south instead of going north west, but it could end up quite wintry for some in that scenario . As you say though it's highly unlikely.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    there will be lightning strikes and power outages along the western seaboard, we always see houses struck by lightning on the news in storms like this, stay indoors those on the west coast and be safe until the worst has passed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,559 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    It would probably have to be a good bit weaker to even consider that path but then again it hasn't even formed yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Will be an interesting next 36 to 48 hours watching it develop and its track. Couple of hundred miles north or south makes a big differnce for us here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Aperge



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭DayInTheBog


    I've a load of woodchips to move into the garden. 😱



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