⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

WolfeEire

The general trend amongst the primary weather models is for this Friday's low pressure system to track close to the northwest of Ireland.

The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the system as it tracks northeast or north-northeast.

That said, it will be another 36-48 hours before we get a clearer picture about how deep the system will get.There is a risk of an additional low pressure system impacting Ireland and Britain later on Sunday into Monday, and further, potentially impactful systems next week.

In the meantime, there is a Met Éireann weather advisory in place for potential damaging wind gusts and disruption in places this Friday. Only the UK Met Office, Met Éireann or KNMI can name a storm, taking the name from the latest list in alphabetical order. The next name in the list is Éowyn.

Dazler97

I'd say one or two counties go into red possibly more but the rest in orange warnings

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Christmas Eve 1997 and Darwin 12 February 2014 were the strongest I've been out in, South East Laois.

I remember the weather events from 1980 on. I remember the storm of 1st February 1988 at home as a 12 year old. Strong winds with heavy sleet to snow showers, however it didn't feel as windy as records suggest. Same with 9 February 1988. February 1990 felt like one prolonged storm, but not severe. All subjective and dependent on location.

Foggy Jew

Bloody hell. Roll on Spring.

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078776#Comment_123078776

Looks a lot like the December 1998 storm based on current charts, 'Hurricane Stephen' at it became known, personally the worst I've experienced (lived right on the north Donegal coast at the time) with wind speeds near 180kph recorded at Malin Head

It's rare for a storm like this to be anywhere near nailed down 4 days out though so still plenty of time for 'downgrades' but as of right now it's looking like a serious one

.Donegal.

Aperge closer on this run. Will be an hour or so before we can view close up version

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078450#Comment_123078450

Just curious myself about the ECM AI model and what exactly it entails. Does it predict outcomes by compering similar atmospheric conditions of the past?

Condor24

Well, plenty of time, actually - not that much time - for this to move a bit further away. Pretty much nailed on that there will indeed be a very deep low by Friday, just the track to be confirmed but it's stubbornly staying close to us. As I've said before, I enjoy a gale, but at a certain point the fun goes when the electric is out for days, like Darragh in December. This certainly will match that if not exceed in terms of windspeed and damage particularly the northern half of the country but the south could get walloped if track deviates a bit more southerly. We'll see what the morning runs bring.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078912#Comment_123078912

That was a very bad one for yourselves in the Northern half of the country.

That St. Stephen's Night I was 22 but we didn't go out that night because of the weather. RTE premiered Braveheart and my brother and myself stayed in watching it! I heard the 11.55pm weather and couldn't believe the gusts at Belmullet, Malin etc.

.Donegal.

GFS 9am Dublin gust 81mph=130.357km/h…

134km/h Dublin airport

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078935#Comment_123078935

It's hard to explain in general terms but my experience with these machine learning models is you give it an input of data and outcomes, the more the better, and then you use the model to do what's called a regression analysis. That's the model using algorithms and statistical analysis to review all of the data and find patterns in it that will lead to those outcomes. They use statistical analysis then to determine the output significance.

So in the ECM case they gave it all the data from 1979 to 2018 and the actual outcomes and then let it 'learn' from that. So effectively it is using the patterns that data gave it to do weather forecast today. That's probably a gross simplification but essentially that's what a lot of these prediction models are doing.

Sorry for OT post mods!

.Donegal.

Aperge 200km/h gusts just off Galway. 180-199km/h for parts of Galway and Mayo. 160-179km/h Mayo/Galway/Sligo and Donegal.

A fair bit east compared to earlier below

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

I don't think I've ever seen charts like these. They're dangerous. Lucky it's only Monday evening. It's Night of the Big Wind stuff.

brookers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078869#Comment_123078869

I will never forget Christmas Eve 1997. we were driving home from visiting relatives in rural wexford. The storm just blew up as we were leaving. trees falling in front of the car, we would turn around and then a tree would fall behind us. The galvanised roof of a shed blew in front of our car and myself and my brother got out and lifted it away, my mother was hysterical in the car, she thought we were all going to be killed with falling trees. when we got home we practically got down on our knees.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079041#Comment_123079041

I have the same memory, trees falling like dominos. The fact that so many were out in it must have meant it caught forecasters by surprise!!

Here's the 18z JMA. Not a lot to be said really, hurricane gusts for many in the West and Northwest. Indeed am zoning in on Kerry as maybe where the storm is at its deepest across all models!

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079059#Comment_123079059

It totally caught Met Eireann by surprise. 11am the news bulletins becoming very windy. 12pm gusts 50-80 mph to hit the country. By 2pm news, 60-90mph gusts. 3pm news 70-100 mph gusts, severe gusts!

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079067#Comment_123079067

zero social media then. Nowcast warnings impossible you’d think. I remember Xmas eve 1998 in NW Cork I think it was anyway, I could be a year out but hoardings from a house up the road from us in town flying everywhere

JJayoo

Expected Friday?

The last storm blew off half the shed soooo maybe this one will blow it back on.....

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079074#Comment_123079074

That's true.

But pre 12pm the forecast for a storm hitting Cork, Kerry etc at 4pm was way off the mark in 1997.

Even Darwin 2014, was under estimated, not to the same extent, that morning. Then the reports came in from Limerick, the big roof down. Places like Kilkenny city declaring a state of emergency. That was so rare.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079011#Comment_123079011

Thanks for that 'holiday. I had just googled it, interesting stuff. Sorry Mods.

The Model watching for this storm will be interesting. As mentioned, similar to Dec 1998 and February 1988. There's still the usual possibility of it veering more offshore to our northwest. Also, what I notice with these storms in recent times, that their dartboard structure doesn't hold together and more than often elongates and develops a twin center weakening the system. Interesting model watching, great work Meteorite and Co.

noplacehere

no. Just no. Not this week please! Those are blooming awful charts when you have work being done in the house and fecking skip bags in the front garden 🤯🤯😂

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078576#Comment_123078576

latest fax … red for Donegal, orange elsewhere by the look of this. Snow showers packing in later.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079183#Comment_123079183

Bar Donegal, an improvement, further north.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079136#Comment_123079136

I was working in my local shopping centre in Douglas from noon to 6pm on Xmas Eve 1997. Was calm enough when I started work and calm enough after. By all accounts I missed the end of the world while inside during the intervening hours! A glass tower outside the shopping centre collapsed and could have killed people.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

The snow Post Big storm is often an occurrence. Tasty bit of snow post Darwin at home 2014, big storm 5th January 1991, fairly widespread heavy snow 8th January.

After the storm of 9 February 1988 snow at home.

All these storms left cold north westerlies in their wake.

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078869#Comment_123078869

My memories would be similar

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078972#Comment_123078972

We went out- it was pints by candlelight in the local pub and navigating downed power lines on the way home. Was it bravery or stupidity- chopper Reid would have said spot on, Bevan. I think this storm will track further to the north west on later runs

pauldry

Ah crap to this storm. Yer charts do indeed show it red over Sligo now I look into more detail. Feck this. The only thing I was seeing earlier was the brunt going into Mace HD and Belmullet and Filling slightly before Sligo.

This may still happen. Like 140kph in Connemara and 130kph in Kerry and Belmullet then 120kph Sligo but charts have 140kph here on lots of charts now.

All I say is go away Eowyn!!

M.T. Cranium

Little change on 00z runs, GFS a little later to develop but reaches a similar conclusion. (European yet to appear) … in any case, this is all going to be speculation until Wed 18z at earliest, given timing of rapid development.

.Donegal.

Aperge ups the ante . 200km/h + gusts in to a portion of Galway. That’s surely a model first. Gusts of 180km/h+ for parts mayo,Galway,Donegal and perhaps extreme NW Clare. Gusts of 160km-179km/h penetrate far inland especially across Galway,Mayo. Also parts of Sligo,Donegal, Clare,Roscommon and Kerry.