⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081516#Comment_123081516

Not sure how far you are from Knock airport but it’s just €18pp one way to Liverpool Thursday 16.25.

onacourse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081534#Comment_123081534

Thanks very much, we are in Dublin - I wish we were near Knock, given that price!

Jim Gazebo

Booked on a ferry out Thurs and back in afternoon Friday Holyhead to Dublin, rough seas don't bother me but I'd say I have no hope of the sailing back? Would love it if they sailed its like a rollercoaster but working at sea, 6+m waves a pax a likely no no?

Ros4Sam24

Warnings to be issued around 11am tomorrow, from weather on Today RTE

DayInTheBog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081560#Comment_123081560

Might be worth the drive over at that price

pcasso

They could consider flying to some other city in the UK and making their way to Liverpool on Friday unless they have accommodation already in or near Liverpool for the Thursday night

Rain from the West

The current cold pool over Eastern North America. Noticeable is the tightness of the temperature gradient over the Southern states. -12 uppers at the top of Georgia, with positive uppers at it’s Southern end. Rocket fuel for the jetstream…..

WolfeEire

A summary of the latest output from the primary weather models for #StormEowyn:

• Output continues to trend toward centering the storm over northwest Mayo by Friday morning.
• The Arpege and GEM, which had earlier kept the storm centre well offshore to the northwest of Ireland are now more closely aligned with the other models
• The strongest winds will be located to the south of the storm centre as it tracks northeast.
• All 7 models bring very strong winds and a mix of rain, sleet and snow, with snow most likely in the northwest.

Weather warnings will likely be issued during Wednesday and constantly reviewed thereafter.

Full Met.ie summary here - https://met.ie/meteorologists-commentary/storm-eowyn-commentary/

M.T. Cranium

-3 C and snow at New Orleans — not often one can report that, and also for it to find any relevance to an Irish storm discussion.

Re ARPEGE and its 311 wind, probably an over-amping that is related to later shift north; those are wind gusts in cat-5 hurricane range so would be 99% confident not a plausible outcome.

nacho libre

If the GFS is right this will be a historic storm en par with the 1998 and 1988 storms, but I have a feeling it's overdoing things

Still even with downgrades, this could still be bad enough to warrant a nationwide orange. In one way the weather enthusiast side of me wants the current GFS run to verify but the more responsible side would welcome something less severe.

koutoubia

Due to fly out on Friday morn for a badly needed holiday.

Getting genuinley nervous/worried now……

DOCARCH

@WolfeEire Loving and appreciating your maps. 👍️ Excellent!

downwiththatsor

This doesn't look like it's shifting North, latest Ecm rolling out

adocholiday

ECM and GEM 12z runs out now too. Widespread red warnings for much of the country I would say if these wind speeds come to pass. ECM looking like a much more prolonged event than the other models too, for example Dublin seeing gusts in excess of 110kmh for 6-9 hours where ICON in comparison has Dublin in that criteria for maybe 3-4 hours.

Dogsdodogsstuff

Can I ask resident pros (I mean it, absolutely fantastic information from boardies), if the following is an accurate interpretation of where things are at ? Obviously it can change but there’s times I’m following stuff on here and not fully understanding things.

I’ve used ChatGBT for different things but regarding work, I find alot of errors so appreciate its still got many flaws. Just wondering how well it’s been interpreting some of the models from this page I uploaded and some of the comments and the following is what the AI said:

This update provides a clear summary of Storm Éowyn’s expected path and impacts based on the latest model consensus. Here’s an interpretation of the information for Friday:

Key Points from the Update:

1.Storm Center Location:

•The storm’s center is now expected to track over northwest Mayo by Friday morning, with all models generally agreeing on this trajectory.

•Earlier models (e.g., GEM and Arpege) that kept the center offshore now align with the more landward track shown by the other models.

2.Strongest Winds:

•The strongest winds will occur to the south of the storm center, as is typical with systems like this in the Northern Hemisphere.

•Coastal areas in the south and west of Ireland will face the most intense gusts, likely exceeding 150 km/h.

3.Precipitation:

•A mix of rain, sleet, and snow is expected, with snow most likely in the northwest. Areas like Donegal and parts of Mayo and Sligo could see accumulations, particularly on higher ground.

4.Wind Shift:

•As the storm tracks northeast, the wind direction will shift, likely causing different impacts throughout the day as it moves inland.

What This Means for Drogheda:

•Winds: Drogheda, being to the east of the storm’s center, will likely experience strong winds (100-130 km/h gusts) but not the extreme conditions forecast for the southwest and west.

•Rain and Sleet: The mix of precipitation may not significantly affect Drogheda compared to the northwest, though heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

•Disruption Risk: Travel disruptions are still likely, particularly if winds increase in strength or if the storm track shifts slightly.

Model Trends:

•Consistency: The models are converging on a similar storm path, increasing confidence in the forecast.

•Uncertainty: Small shifts in the storm’s track could influence the distribution of the strongest winds and precipitation types.

ChatGBT also gave advice about ferry 7am but I’m not posting that , my advice is to make your own call.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081685#Comment_123081685

The smallest of nudges north, but the centre is 6hPa lower and the gradient is much tighter than it was on the 00z run

onacourse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081579#Comment_123081579

Thanks, it’s actually cheaper to fly to Liverpool than other airports eg Manchester. I wouldn’t be able to get to Knock so might have to bite the bullet!

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081716#Comment_123081716

Mod Note: onacourse need to stay on topic please. Discussions about cost of flights better kept for another thread.

Thanks

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081207#Comment_123081207

If I squint, slightly reminds me of this:

Cyclones at Jupiters south pole.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081534#Comment_123081534

I know very little about ferries etc and there’s still a chance this storm largely affects the NW but plucking a figure from the air I’d say there’s at least a 40% chance that ferry gets cancelled. Best of luck with whatever you choose. Can’t bring myself to wish Liverpool good luck for your kid!

pad199207

Surely we will wake up to downgrades come tomorrow morning….

onacourse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081732#Comment_123081732

thanks! We should probably also feel sorry for my poor husband who is bringing him, who is an Arsenal fan!

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081737#Comment_123081737

Well, can't see much room for upgrades!

kittyn

It is looking kinda historic at the moment!!

DellyBelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081623#Comment_123081623

Yeah a family member is the same. We have a friend who works in Dublin airport and they have been told expect a lot of cancelled flights on Friday..doesn't bode well

DayInTheBog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081759#Comment_123081759

I don't like making history.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081737#Comment_123081737

Only if it is snow and cold weather!

Rain from the West

12Z ECM. Indicated 40 millibar difference from Donegal to Cork. Thats a tight pressure gradient for Ireland.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123081737#Comment_123081737

That's what we've been saying now for 2 days! The trend northward disappeared and there are no signs of any moderation in intensity in the current outputs. If anything they're upgrading. ECM, ICON, GFS and GEM are all showing widespread red-warning level gusts for a time in places. They're all showing a well organised storm centre, only just starting to fill as it passes us, and keeping a tight gradient across much of the country. ARPEGE is the furthest away from shore, sparing some of the South and East from the worst of the winds but not by much. Still hoping for a shift to the North so that the worst of it stays offshore, and that could yet happen, but we're less than 72 hours from show time now and model consensus is starting to show. I'm worried about this one for sure.

pauldry

I'd say the above chart will be spot on and wind gusts in 130 to 140kph for many so RED warning possible .

However a lot of the crazier speeds will remain out in the Atlantic so a few buoys might see 160kph gusts or more.