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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Winter 2024/2025.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thank you.

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Winter is here, on Monday turning cooler with a brief northerly making it feel rather chilly.

Northerly gets out of the way by Tuesday. Still feeling fairly chilly on Tuesday but milder weather is on the way from Wednesday.

Low pressure moves in late Wednesday/Thursday which could bring some fairly windy weather at times and rain.

The coming 5/6 days won't be overly wet with a greater chance of heavier rain after mid week.

Thursday could be a fairly windy day so this may have to be watched.

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[Deleted User]

UK Met Office has issued a yellow warning for snow in Northern Ireland for Wednesday.

Oscar Bravo

First of quite a few warnings for the week ahead

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Spells of rain, heavy at times.

Possible Impacts:

• Localised flooding
• Difficult travelling conditions
• Poor visibility

Valid: 11:00 Monday 30/12/2024 to 11:00 Tuesday 31/12/2024

Issued: 12:20 Sunday 29/12/2024

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122997942#Comment_122997942

The writing along with warning

A band of rain in association with a deep low pressure system moving in from the west pushes east on Wednesday. This is likely to turn to snow as it moves into cold air. Possibility of 2-5cm of snow, perhaps up to 10cm, in a few places, whilst 15-20 cm may accumulate over hills with drifting in the strong winds.

.Donegal.

Icon front doesn’t even make it to the northern half of the country on Wednesday. Big shift south.

Ros4Sam24

ECM ai has made nothing of the low for a few days now, and has the best verification stats all year. Would be another win for the model which sniffed out this looming cold spell before the others.

squarecircles

Potentially significant and impactful weather in store this Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a sharp cold snap to finish out the week.

A series of low pressure centres are currently developing out in the Atlantic and the first of which is expected to pass over the country this Tuesday followed by another more significant area of low pressure on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s weather is expected to be very unsettled with heavy rain passing down over the country throughout the day.

Met Eireann Meteorologist Mark Bowe commented “the low moving over on Tuesday will bring significant winds to the northwest but rain will be widespread and rather heavy at times too which could lead to spot flooding.”

The forecaster went on to explain that the weather on Wednesday will prove to be a lot more significant with more rain and very strong and blustery winds for all areas.

Bowe continued “ we are currently tracking the development of the low pressure system expected for Wednesday with potentially some very impactful winds across western and southern areas.”

For now the low looks set to track right across the country with significant winds expected for western and southern areas.

Met Eireann’s flood forecasting centre also commented on the significant weather expected adding that soils are saturated or approaching saturation countrywide which will increase rainfall runoff to the rivers. The widespread and prolonged nature of the rain may lead to significant river level increases. There is the potential for surface water flooding where highest rainfall totals are observed.

They went on to mention that we are in a entering spring tides. Significant surge, wind and wave conditions are expected. Coastal inundation is not expected, however, exposed low-lying coastal areas may experience wave overtopping due to strong on-shore winds coinciding with high tide.

Beyond this weather mid-week we are going to experience a rather cold change to the overall regime with very cold northerly air set to sink down across the country to finish out the week. Temperatures are likely to fall well below freezing overnight and struggle to remain in the single figures during the day.

For now Met Eireann forecasters are closely monitoring the situation with special emphasis on the development of the weather for Wednesday with updates likely over the coming days.

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Oscar Bravo

Hard one to call

.Donegal.

Way it’s going I can see it missing the NW entirely.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998587#Comment_122998587

just like it showed back Novemeber.

squarecircles

12z gfs

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998587#Comment_122998587

It better not miss me in the north midlands, carrick

.Donegal.

Trend south continues. North Ulster stays dry. Up to 72hours and there’s some snow accumulating in narrowish line from Galway to Dublin. Big downgrades in terms of depth of snow however.

Meteorite58

What a change to how the charts were looking only a couple of days ago, Tues now more widespread windy and blustery but not too strong for most, gusting up to about 70km/h overland and around 80km/h on coasts, maybe a bit stronger in the W, NW and out on the costal fringes, Weds system looks to move much further S now with the strongest winds along the Southern counties ( yellow wind warning at most at this stage ), some models just showing winds barely along the Southern coasts and then of course the question if snow will fall North of the system but that is being well discussed over on the event thread.

Big shift in rainfall accumulations also with mostly Munster getting the most at this stage.

Weds for much of the country was looking very mild before the cold air flooded down from the North , now only the S looks to get the warm pulse of air from the system, temps remaining much cooler North of the center where sleet and snow is possible followed by a fairly widespread sharp to severe frost.

Edit: ECM 18Z now showing little or no wind on Weds with an almost non existent LP system/ was thinking it might be downgraded but this might be too much of a adjustment, will see .

xx_model-en-324-0_modez_2024122912_68_949_63 (1).png

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z totally removes threat of any strong wind on Weds. Looks very wet in the SW from Tues into Weds morning, Kerry getting the most.

Snowfall looks downgraded now on all the models with a sleety , wet snow at best highlighted in the areas below.

Neddyusa

How are the Sat/Sun charts looking now?

bazlers

Very good for South and East but will swing like a pendulum until about 24 to 12hrs out. No forecaster will have it nailed just regurgitate what the charts are showing at a given time.

prosaic

Happy nowfest. Where are the charts? Waiting till you see the whites of its snowy eyes?

WolfeEire

The weekend weather will be a mixed affair. Rain, sleet & snow will slowly extend north on Sat afternoon. High-Res modelling suggests snowfall on high ground in inland parts of Munster, Connacht, Leinster & W Ulster, & to lower levels at times. Met É has issued yellow and orange alerts.

The Arome model, which goes to 51hrs, has provided the most accurate projections for recent snowfall in Ireland. This snow depth map is for up to 10am, Sunday. The system pulls away east until Sunday eve. Lower levels will see snowfall Sunday PM as colder air digs in behind.

Screenshot_2025-01-03-11-18-14-325-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

WolfeEire

Conditions in the Orange Alert counties will become briefly less conducive for snowfall later on Sunday morning as temperatures rise. The snowfall risk increases again as the system pulls away east dragging in colder air.

WolfeEire

The high-res Harmonie model extends out to the end of the weekend and shows the snow risk extending to Offaly, Laois and Waterford.

For the most up to date warnings/details, see https://www.met.ie/warnings-today.html

WolfeEire

Meteorologist Mark Bowe of Met Éireann with the latest DINI high resolution model output depicting likely preciptation type and location for same this weekend.

https://twitter.com/Mark__Bowe/status/1875178157999042833

WolfeEire

Another slider low bringing the risk of wintry precipitation to southern coastal counties of Ireland and southern Britain on Wednesday, according to the 06Z ECMWF.

Larbre34

Where are we at with 850 temps and thicknesses through the forecast precip timescale?

WolfeEire

The latest ECMWF HRES snow depth/precipitation charts for the weekend. The areas harded hit by snow remain those included in the Met Status Orange alert counties, namely Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Clare, Limerick, Tipperary (and cork and kerry).

https://twitter.com/wolfeeire/status/1875269032167002496

Imagery source is

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=003&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

WolfeEire

Tonight's Arome suggests significant snow accumulations for elevated parts of the southern half of Ireland away from the SE and S coast. In the main, the predicted snow depths match the topography of the landscape, which suggests accumulations will be lighter at lower levels.

Screenshot_2025-01-03-23-18-48-450-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

Screenshot_2025-01-03-23-14-43-906-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

Supercell

Interesting bulge in the T+60 Fax chart over the east, streamers? Like the positioning of the 528 dam if so…

Neddyusa

What's the charts for tomorrow to Thursday looking like?

Too mild for low-level accumulations in the North west from showers?

WolfeEire

Temps dropping between minus 8c and minus 10c overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, most likely over snowfields. Where freezing fog persists during Wednesday, daytime temps will remain sub zero. A slow return to less cold conditions from Friday into the weekend.

nacho libre

I am confident we will get plenty of precipitation on Friday when it's guaranteed to be rain or a very short period of snow before it transitions back to rain

Donegal Ken

Another interesting set up on Friday with rain moving up across the country during the morning hit that colder air over Ireland again. We could see further falls of heavy snowfall in places through Friday morning and the afternoon. One to watch at the moment.

18Z GFS is very interesting