FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Billcarson

In the icon we trust lol

Condor24

January 82 and 87 set the standards for what a short but severe cold spell can be. Mild winters overall, yet everyone who was at school or older remembers those few days. I do not think we're anywhere near seeing that in the next 10-14 days, but something cold and really wintery would be nice.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122995697#Comment_122995697

Yes , the cfs output certainly seems too good to be true; a noticeable and extended cold spell in the heart of winter. If it were to come off I wonder has it anything to do with the QBO suddenly going easterly- it was not suppose to happen for another six months. From what I have read this increases the chance of blocking, especially if the MJO is in a favourable phase. I don't think Sryan places much importance on it though.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122995835#Comment_122995835

That would be a late Christmas present for sure! A happy new year indeed!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122995835#Comment_122995835

Unfortunately frontal events rarely work out like this beauty. Usually they end up going to far south and we are lift high and dry or the frontal event is about 100km northwards compared to what is shown here and all we're left with is cold rain. I expect alot of chopping and changing over the next 3 days with this potential storm, none of the cold, rain or wind is nailed at this stage.

Rebelbrowser

I just watched the RTE weather after the 9 o clock news and it showed it being 13 degrees on next Thursday, 2 Jan. Separately Ive posted below the 850hpa temps for 1pm that day on ECM, GFS and Ukmo. What am I missing?

Rain from the West

Another knife edge outcome from the GFS!

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122996944#Comment_122996944

Shambolic stuff. This mornings ecm had this at 1am on Thursday

Progressively getting colder throughout the day here’s 1am Friday

So they don’t have this mornings run as an excuse. Joke. Nothing else can be said about it.

Gonzo

There are still alot of if's and puts about the model output, uncertainty and so many ways this can fall apart which has happened to us many times in the past. I don't think Met Eireann are going to start showing very cold or snowy charts almost a week out. As soon as the word snow is mentioned people start panicking and running to the supermarket fairly quickly. Met Eireann will only jump on board when this comes into a more reliable time frame and with absolute cross model agreement that things are getting serious. Right now none of us have any idea where this low pressure is going to land and it's position will be crucial to weather we end up with snow or just alot of rain. This probably won't be resolved till Monday or Tuesday.

Ros4Sam24

Pub run is absolutely bonkers tonight, ski resorts would open in Kerry and Wicklow🤣

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122997074#Comment_122997074

still, you’d think you’d hedge your bets and not talk of it being 13c - say 9c and you can slide a few degrees up or down seamlessly

Gonzo

the 18z looks good but then when you look at the 850hpa chart, mild/warm air lurks not far from the southern Irish coastline for majority of the run, very much knifesedge stuff.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122997151#Comment_122997151

No one criticised them for not mentioning snow so I don’t even get that post. There’s nothing remotely like 13c on consecutive ecm runs so it deserves criticism for having that. Better to just not go that far out or mention it could potentially turn colder so keep up to date or maybe we just should just embrace incompetence and say nothing.

WolfeEire

A textbook blocking setup on the GFS op run tonight but it has some way to go toward verifying based on the ensembles. Much colder weather is now more likely than not in the opening week of January, however, based on all model output.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

I'm generally loathe to criticise Met Eireann. I understand they have to be so much more accurate in their forecasts than the 'Independents' and are often slow to call things until very close to the event.

However their 4 day temperature maps at the end of every weather forecast leave a lot to be desired. They rarely correspond to the latest GFS\ECM\UKMO.

In this respect Met Eireann are making a stick to beat themselves. Ideal for opportunists like Cathal Nolan. Met Eireann want to tighten up on these easily fixable things and not be leaving themselves open to ridicule.

Reversal

Current output very reminiscent of New Years 09/10. Big knife edge rain/snow event around the 30th followed by an NEly cold spell.

pauldry

The only forecast that can be relied upon is the boards forecast contest Jan 2025. I for one will be going at least 2c BELOW normal. This is a 2009 2010 type January. Can't remember which. But snow almost certain for many areas. Even Sligo town ....and Dublin I'd say.

Gonzo

A cold spell looks very possible for the first week of January with this lasting anywhere from 3 to 8 days, but 4 or 5 days is probably more realistic. A lot of knife-edge stuff involved so far and no real brutal cold aside from that CFS run yesterday. We will probably be relying on frontal snow events to fall in the right place for anywhere to get snow and for me that would mostly likely be the midlands and north-west most likely to get snow from this. I don't think we're looking at a Beast from the East here, perhaps set our sights a bit lower and hopefully luck will win out this time with frontal events or possibly polar lows. At the same time the majority of Januarys over the past 14 years or so have generally been very mild so this January is looking somewhat colder than what we usually get, but may necessarily not be a snow fest. We will probably need another 2 days of model runs to see where we are at with the first week of January. I would like to see a few more upgrades tomorrow in regards to cold and widespread snow potential and keep the mild air further away from us than what we saw on the 18z.

.Donegal.

Latest GFS

Not often you see sub double digits for Ireland . -13c

10 days out

Icon day 5

UKMO

ECM shifted south again. Highest snow accumulations in areas similar to UKMO above. Definitely possible this front trends further south.

PokeHerKing

Met Eireanns forecast map has ice days for many parts of the country from the new years day through to the weekend.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122971303#Comment_122971303

Just goes to show how quickly things can change, don't know why anyone takes models seriously outside of 5 days, they rarely verify.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122997818#Comment_122997818

We hit the bottom of the barrel in terms of model watching for most of this month, thankfully things changed alot over the past few days. That pre Christmas run up model watching was grim!

Donegal Ken

I Agree the run up to Christmas was very Grim. Great to see some eye candy Charts. Not fully there yet but we are very close.

Rebelbrowser

yup now showing 3c max for Wednesday when last night on the 9.30pm forecast they were showing 13c. That was some oversight. No model was showing double figures for Wednesday by yesterday

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998114#Comment_122998114

And to think they get paid for that kind of stuff yet no model was showing 13C. Really is not good enough!

Big set of 12s coming up. It doesn't look a great setup to me compared to the incessant ramping on N/W. However that famous word called potential is there alright so worth watching what transpires

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998201#Comment_122998201

less promising for our location JS but you never know

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998201#Comment_122998201

I'm expecting a fairly dry cold spell with only a few lucky spots seeing some flakes, we haven't had much luck with cold spells from 2019 onwards in terms of snow. This mornings models seemed to be a bit of a downgrade for Ireland in particular over yesterday afternoons wonders in terms of cold spell duration, temperature and snow. I'm hoping the 12z models upgrades again, these set of models are going to be critical as will the 00z overnight.

Billcarson

Fwiw

Gonzo

that's a bit of an upgrade for snow, almost the entire UK and Ireland covered in snow, of course it won't verify like this, we still have about another 14 sets of model runs to go between now and then.

In reality coastal margins will probably miss out with best chances of snow inland by several km from the coast. These snow charts not to be taken seriously as they are still deep into FI.

Gonzo

12z alot colder than the 6z and prolonging the cold spell…