FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

GFS 12z today showing it becoming quite cold into the new year/1st week of January with some wintry potential.

Winds in from the North around 2nd January and keeps it generally cold to the end of the run.

This is all however over a week away so therefore unreliable but a big shift in the GFS ensemble members going for some sort of a cold snap or spell 1st week of January.

Northern blocking is likely to resume early January but it remains to be seen if it will in a position to affect us.

The AO looks like it will go fairly negative into early January, however for us we really need the NAO to also go negative for a better chance of getting cold weather in our part of the world.

The NAO may go neutral or weakly negative, but could also remain weakly positive.

KMA also showing it cold for the start of 2025, although this cold snap may only be brief.

At least there is a little bit of of hope/a chance at a cold spell for the 1st week of January but we need to keep an eye on all the models over the next week and wait and see if the other models start showing this and if the GFS can maintain this change to something colder for early January.

WolfeEire

With a near neutral NAO and a negative AO for the turn of the year, there is a heightened risk of colder weather arriving by New Year's Eve/Day. A Polar Maritime Airmass is favoured.

WolfeEire

The ICON 12z also backing other models on a colder turn as we head into New Year's Eve with a Polar Maritime airmass influencing our weather.

The GFS op run has a similar look to it.

JMA going for a much earlier push of colder air on 28th

Gonzo

the main problem I'm seeing with the potential of a cold snap around New Years is as ever the heights remaining over Spain and Portugal so genuine cold may not happen, low level cold like what we had over the weekend is probably more likely.

The real cold is likely to spill southwards just to our east leaving much of the continent into the freezer and much more wintry.

.Donegal.

Some patchy snow to start New Year’s Eve.

A bit more over the countdown

A notable snowfall event for the NW to wake up to 2nd January

Gone by the 6th

WolfeEire

Turning colder as we head into the final two days of 2024 and the beginning of January. Daytime temperatures heading back to single digit figures. A northwesterly polar maritime airmass is the most likely source of any cold.

WolfeEire

New Year's Day looks set to be a cold one with air temps in low single figures. The below breakdown of the GEFS relates to a Midlands location. There is a 70-75% chance at present of temperatures at midday on New Year's Day being 0-3.9c. The 18z GFS op run was on the milder end.

ClimateObserver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122990087#Comment_122990087

Really love the analysis on these scenarios. Hope the amount perturbations don't increase! 😄

WolfeEire

Ireland in a cold northerly flow for New Year's Day, according to the 12z ICON. Scattered wintry showers near the Ulster and north Connacht & leinster coasts but largely fine conditions in such a setup.

WolfeEire

The GEM follows suit with a very cold NE to NE airflow from Siberia with love.

bazlers

This baby on the 12z (Gusts MPH) might be something of note down the tracks, or at that time range a thing of nothing.

Meteorite58

The Jet really firing up next week , the depression around the 31st/ 1st looks to be staying that bit North, GFS is a bit stronger and has been for a number of runs, just getting into +120hr range so should be getting a better idea. As above in bazlers post a huge storm from the ECM crossing the country around the 2nd /3rd, GFS holds back a depression out in the Atlantic close to that time and the GEM has nothing . ACCESS-G shows a big storm also like the ECM . UKMO some windy weather around the 1st .Will see if a trend sets in but a long way off.

Looks likely some colder weather on the way next week with wintry stuff at times as we get into a mainly N, NW/ly airflow . ECM the coldest and goes on far out in FI even to show some NE/ly and from the E briefly. Will have to see if the weather gets lively at times. Precipitation totals depending on track of systems but the two main models showing a jump in totals especially in the Atlantic side of the country. Fair chance of some snow accumulations more so the further North. A way off but ECM showing some frontal snow scenarios, GFS was showing more snowfall potential but gone off it a bit but models will change from run to run that far out but the main thing is in general getting colder .

.Donegal.

ECM t144 very potent storm

Donegal Ken

Will be interesting watching this on over the weekend. Can see other models in the next 24 hours showing similar outputs.

Gonzo

the cold spell is watered down to almost nothing for next week, the storm will probably be the main feature of next week, there is way too much energy in the North Atlantic for any half decent cold spell to develop for our part of the world.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122993353#Comment_122993353

Better than nothing, the last week has been horrendously boring.

ascophyllum

ECM 12z is a little less powerful and further north, still impactful for Northwest. GFS splits it in 2 no impact in Ireland but a small powerful low hitting southern England and Netherlands and Denmark yet again.

GEM similar to GFS, but then shows a more prolonged northerly and some serious cold for 4 or 5 days at least.

Gonzo

GFS going for a fairly significant warming around mid January, what happens after this remains to be seen.

GFS was wobbling on the cold spell over the past 24 hours but the 12z is a big upgrade for cold in the first week of January.

Meteorite58

Yeah a few wobbles there but looking fairly consistent now between the main models.

That is the first real push of cold airmass too I think, still far out but seeing 850hpa Temps of -8C from the ECM and down to -10C at times from the GFS .

Kermit.de.frog

My snowy senses are tingling for the first week of January. Things might get exciting 😁

But we're not quite there yet. Still needs some reduction in the strength of the northern arm of the Jet Stream but not far away at all. Wouldn't rule out a snow event for New Year's day for some of us either.

JanuarySnowstor

Awesome charts tonight by both gfs and Icon. A phenomenal change from 12hours ago and very much creeping into the reliable! It's GAME ON!!

nacho libre

A decent cold spell in the heart of winter,yes please! Lets hope it doesn't get watered down in the days ahead, but as we all know that's the danger.

Billcarson

Charts look really nice atm for cold lovers. Really hope there aren't much in the way of downgrades over the next few days. If it was to become some kind of a bust I think that would be a bad sign for the remainder of the winter. So fingers crossed 🤞.

Gonzo

tomorrows models will be important, we need to see the cold momentum maintained and hopefully upgraded further. Or the models will wobble again.

Gonzo

The PV is coming under a good deal of pressure on the GFS 18z

WolfeEire

the 0z runs probably the most anticipated of the winter to date. The prospect of a cold spell in mid winter is a rare occurrence.

Kermit.de.frog

We've a journey to travel but keep an eye on New Year's Day. The 00z gfs has quite the snow event for many with a deepening area of low pressure off the Atlantic throwing it's weather fronts heroically ahead of it in to very cold air from the north.

The tightness of the temperature gradient near the core of the LP is classic snow event territory. This needs to be watched very carefully.

It's a bit of fun, for now. A lot still to be resolved in the coming days.

JanuarySnowstor

MT, have you seen the charts this morning? New year's day has the potential to be very disruptive? At just 5 days out your forecast doesn't really capture the risk imo..

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Need to see if this still shows today, fair that MT not calling it out yet imo

Gonzo

If the CFS is correct we are in for a noteworthy January, A January setup that we haven't seen in well over a decade.

not to be taken seriously in anyway, just for fun but if that verified we would have a fairly chilly January on the way. In all seriousness I don't think we're there yet with this spell, too much variability, the treat of the Atlantic watering down and spoiling our fun still remains too high so I think we need another few days to see where we are at.