EV Depreciation 2023

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521942#Comment_121521942

Given the depreciation, EVs in Ireland suit high mileage drivers the most.

I seem to remember the thread on the Niro back in ‘19/20 was all about how the petrol car was €28k and the EV was €40k, and “€12k would buy you a lot of petrol”.

On donedeal right now, all 2020 Niro, be they petrol, hybrid and EV, can be had for the same price, around €24k (far too high for a small 4yo car imho, but the EV is the obvious choice if they’re all the same price now)

that suggests the EV driver had a higher total cost of ownership amongst Niro owners, unless he was doing big big mileage and could save €12k in fuel over that 3-4 years.

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121522493#Comment_121522493

Yeah, we were comparing at the time, an Auto Sportage, the Phev (which still had the full SEAI grant) and the full ev. We also had a bulk Derv tank at home. Actually the Leaf was in the mix too at the start, but chademo was dying back then, never mind now.

Also needed to go from North donegal - enniskillen and back in winter without charging, Only now that some fast chargers are showing up in strabane! We can do belfast and back without charging too,

Phev was ruled out as it would only do about half the daily commute, and then still have to go routinely for petrol (talk about having to go to a petrol station.. I didnt even want to cross the road to the tank!)

Sportage was gonna be very similar to our present one. Nothing new about it though. - if you get a new car, its no fun if its the same.

Niro vs sportage, 125mm shorter in length, 50mm narrower, 100mm shorter in height. Only thing we've noticed is the boot being a bit smaller, but theres only 2 of us and the biggest bit of that is not having the dropped floor that the sportage could do.

If we had changed a year later, the trade in on the sportage would have been a lot better! (seems to be holding value well too!)

the cheapest option was to keep the sportage.. but we'd be pushing 300,000 km at that stage. Milage in 20/21 was just work, 22/23 was somewhat back to what we used to do. work+leisure

mailforkev

Plenty of EVs now are cheaper than an ICE equivalent. And in general, new car prices have increased quite a lot over the last couple of years, so unfortunately loads of people have been priced out of the new car market, EV or ICE. And if it wasn't for PCP it would be even worse.

Around 300 horsepower with all the gadgets in a rear wheel drive saloon for under 45k? Not sure what is getting close to that other than a Model 3 or Seal.

Similarly over 200 horsepower with toys in a family hatchback for 30k, that'll be the MG 4. A shite spec manual diesel Golf is 10k more than that.

gammon199

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121522712#Comment_121522712

Good value to be had alright, but there are good reasons why they are cheaper.

Model 3 is the best value car in the country

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121522712#Comment_121522712

And only the Model 3 is under your €45k limit at €41,832. The Seal is €46,000 plus some change.

sk8board

When you look at EV sales to date in Ireland, it’s been almost entirely early adopters really.

At this point anyone who wants an EV can just walk into a garage and buy one, but they’re not biting at the prices that early adopters paid, and the recent depreciation in the market reflects that.

With the recent big reductions in cars like the ID4, there is absolutely no doubt that the 2nd hand market had a long way to far still, to be in line with those new car prices.

a new car should never ever be the ‘value’ in the market (look at model 3’s e.g.). The market is still upside down while that is the case.

garages are still sitting on a lot of higher priced stock, but trade-in prices from here on will be miserable, reflecting the real market.

MojoMaker

Early adopters go back to maybe 2012. Back when a Leaf was 17K and up to maybe 2019 when a Leaf was still a shade under 20K on the road.

Anyone buying since 22/23 is a mainstream adopter - and thankfully, as options, infrastructure, and capacity, don't grow without mainstream adopters piling into the market.

Sheedy234

I have an mg4 exclusive and it is a fabulous car to drive and looks, have had free charging at work and halved my toll bill but I actually still miss the convenience of a full tank of fuel and not looking at what percent is left. Slight regret even though economically saving money . I wish the charging pints were just a tap and go not all these apps.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523163#Comment_121523163

I would probably disagree that 22/23 buyers are mass market, simply because EV's were still hard to get in that period, esp in '22 (EV6, Ioniq 5 etc), and they actually increased in price in many cases in those years too (due to the shortage/delays), and many of those EV sales were company cars and taxi's.

We're still at the early adopter stage when it comes to price - if we weren't, prices wouldn't need to drop so much.

As for functionality (as in - does an EV suit my needs), theres still a big education gap. the tesla M3 dropped price in early '23 to a level that probably made it the best value "car" on the market full stop, and yet the mass market didn't bite at all (its 1% of total sales in '22 & '23). what mostly happened was that tesla early adopters moved into the MY, meaning the Y didn't attract the mass market buyers here either.

FaaF

I'm a big fan of Tesla's pricing model - the price you see on the website is the price you pay, no deals or discounts. It makes it completely obvious that the used market has some way to go before a used Model 3 represents good value.

VW's pricing is all over the place at the moment. You can't tell, at a glance, how much less than new price the owner of a 1/2/3 year old model is asking for because it takes too much digging to find out what the best price is for the new vehicle - and can depend on quarter-end targets as well as a much more complex list of options.

Have any BYD buyers tried negotiating on price or are they similar to Tesla where the price you see is the price you pay with no exceptions?

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523321#Comment_121523321

The key challenge Tesla have here is not their pricing model but the lack of dealers and the fact they force you to become a second-hand car salesman. They need to look after their own customers and offer decent trade in's on Tesla they can easily retail- like they do in other markets and in fairness as VW and the other traditional brands like Kia or Hyundai are doing

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523321#Comment_121523321

BYD is non negotiable. Like Tesla.

FaaF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523651#Comment_121523651

I agree with this and am suspicious of how little they are offering on trade ins and how few used Model 3's they have listed on their own website.

Surely they are missing the markup they could earn on those wanting used Tesla's. My suspicion revolves around whether they know internally that a 2024 price cut is on the cards due to the reduced cost to manufacture the new Highland model.

Perhaps they'll cut prices in 2024 and increase willingness to take trade ins, albeit at lower values than what owners would expect today - with the cost to change not being negatively impacted for current owners due to any forthcoming price cuts.

All speculation, of course.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523712#Comment_121523712

I can’t see them cutting prices any further.

They need a bigger premise to start taking used cars in and selling them. The sandyford showroom is too small with no space for used cars at all.

One thing I will say is that the lack of dealers has not been a problem at all. You put into the app your concern. They will log in and check issue. Send ranger to your house or work. Fix it. If it can’t be fixed, they you drop to the showroom. Same as any other dealer.

My 530e has a charging issue at present and it’s been in the dealers 3 times now. Each time it’s been there for the full day. I’ve had to arrange it around my WFH days. It’s a nuisance.

My opinion is the ranger service is one of the main things that would keep me with them.

josip

Everett Roger classified it as follows in 1971,

I think less than 2% of the national fleet are BEVs, so we're still in the Innovator phase (in Ireland) and yet to get into the Early Adopter category.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524083#Comment_121524083

With the 20-year fleet renewal cycle I don't think it's correct to apply the adoption curve to the fleet as a whole. When it comes to buyers of new cars, we've moved into the early majority phase.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523712#Comment_121523712

Tesla have absolutely zero interest in touching their own second hand cars and likely never will.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524150#Comment_121524150

But taking that approach, if someone has bought 2EVs up to now, they are counted twice and 100% is 100% of what?

FaaF

Of car registrations in the first 6 months of this year, 18.46% were EV's.

With new entrants in the field and VW price cuts, assuming they stick and aren't just to get rid of excess stock, the next 6-12 months should see that figure rise.

That does place us squarely in the early majority phase which does make sense. There's no way in hell I'd consider the buyer of an EV in Ireland today an "innovator".

Buddy Bubs

Not fully representative of the population but in my workplace there is a cupra born, an Etron, 2 ID4s, an id5, an Enyaq and a model x. And in the UK there is a q4 and an ix among the staff.

That's 9 out of 110 staff. And they are all at management and director level. And either company cars or expensed.

Not 1 non manager has an EV yet.

I expect a couple of used EVs to arrive during 2024 though as they become affordable.

tobefrank321

Some of the newer EVs particularly the German models are massively overpriced. Once people understand the realities of EV ownership after the initial honeymoon period wears off, many want to go back to petrol or diesel and will offload at any price.

The glamour of waiting half an hour at a charging station on the way somewhere quickly wears off, as does high domestic electricity prices.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524577#Comment_121524577

Have you discovered the realities Frank and are these your realities or everyone else's realities? Because although the above may be someone's realities, they're definitely not ours. We have not yet had to wait at a charger and to go back to petrol or diesel now would feel like going back to dial up internet.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524577#Comment_121524577

I agree fully on your first point about being overpriced but disagree fully about people wanting to go back to petrol or diesel. Haven't seen any evidence of that at all. Anyone in work that has one (9 of us now) will never ever go back unless EVs get discontinued or something.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524577#Comment_121524577

High domestic electricity prices?

Less than 10c now and as low as 5c.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524597#Comment_121524597

Yes I have. And by waiting at a charger you do know I meant waiting 30 mins for your car to actually charge, as oppose to waiting in a queue, both of which I've experienced.

Good for you by the way.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524605#Comment_121524605

10c for what?

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524623#Comment_121524623

Electricity.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524633#Comment_121524633

Do you mean kwh?

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524598#Comment_121524598

Question for you. Do the 9 of yee also have petrol/diesel/hybrid models in the family?

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524636#Comment_121524636

Urban Day units (8am to 11pm)

40.58 32.46 cent per kWh

Urban Peak units (5pm to 7pm)

56.59 45.27 cent per kWh

Urban Night units (11pm to 8am)

30.61 24.49 cent per kWh

Urban EV units (2am to 5am)

10.34 8.28 cent per