EV Depreciation 2023

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524649#Comment_121524649

Do you do long journeys and how often?

As I said some of the German models with good range are overpriced for the average buyer.

That said, your average 100 grand petrol or diesel car will also depreciate 10-15k in the first year, so this is not just an EV issue. Expensive cars depreciate hugely.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524643#Comment_121524643

I don't now, just 1 car for us now my cupra. But I'm thinking of adding a 2nd EV

The Etron and the id5 are in the same family husband and wife

Model X guy is married his wife has another car alright a Volvo ICE

Enyaq guy isn't married.

One of the id4 guys isn't married either, one is and his wife has an ICE.

I don't know about the 2 UK staff with the q4 and the ix to be honest I don't know them that well.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524676#Comment_121524676

My journey profile is irrelevant. You referenced high domestic electricity prices but you can get 100kms for €1 in an EV at the moment.

That's for nothing, it really is. Could be €10 in an ICE.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524722#Comment_121524722

Its completely relevant.

How often do you go on long journeys, lets say round trips in excess of 200km?

We all accept EVs are perfect for commuting. The problem arises for people who frequently have to travel long distances and given the urban-rural split in Ireland that can be frequent.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524738#Comment_121524738

I was merely rebutting your incorrect claim about high domestic electricity prices, nothing more.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524738#Comment_121524738

Every week. Dub-Bel and back. One trip. No charging stops. 2020 EV that you can buy for 30-35k. No hassle.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524745#Comment_121524745

Thats fine.

In my experience public charging station prices went up in recent years. Regards domestic rates, you probably have a charging station which also means an investment.

Overall the upfront cost of EVs are higher than ICEs.

And its not for eveyone. A poster on this thread referenced the fact its only the high earning management who have EVs currently.

Tbh EVs are still struggling to become mainstream. Thats a problem.

tobefrank321

Also, significant depreciation is another cost.

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524770#Comment_121524770

But significant depreciation helps it become mainstream? Like every other car did. (before things going crazy in 21/22)

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524759#Comment_121524759

Your shifting the goalposts again there.

A home charger is a one off investment and over multiple years, in a household that will probably have 4 EV's, the investment is peanuts.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524778#Comment_121524778

I wouldn't be so sure. I read today that Audi are pausing EV for the time being based on sluggish sales of new cars. Fewer new car sales will be a problem as it also means fewer second hand cars down the line.

Cost and popularity are directly linked. Economics 101.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524787#Comment_121524787

Ah come on, how many households have 4 EVs? You don't help your cause with statements like that.

A charger is just one up front cost. The cost of the car itself is another. And then you have the issue of long journeys and their frequency which you refuse to address.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524759#Comment_121524759

Chargepoint investment at home is €395.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524770#Comment_121524770

Significant depreciation occurs in every mass produced car, no matter what fuel it is.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524798#Comment_121524798

Where did you read that?

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524820#Comment_121524820

I doubt he read it anywhere. He's a spoofer.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524834#Comment_121524834

The only spoofer on this thread is you pal.

I will help you out.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-demand.asp

Take your time reading it.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524854#Comment_121524854

Can you link the article about Audi please.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524820#Comment_121524820

Read it here

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/18/audi-hits-brakes-ev-electric-cars-rollout/

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524881#Comment_121524881

Thanks.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524439#Comment_121524439

It's 100% of new cars sold per year. We're long past EVs being an innovative risky purchase by people who actively seek out different alternatives and are willing to put up with jankiness and risk of change. We're now into the early majority that put more consideration into a purchase. They are people who aren't scared of new things but also don't want to take the risk of something being very unknown.

We're also seeing the typical pushback from the more conservative late majority and laggards as they seek to justify why their choice to not adopt is the correct one.

The innovators and early adopters tend to have more disposable income and are more willing to lose money on purchases, as the market moves to the majority manufacturers will need to start competing on value again which is another reason why we're seeing the price corrections which have caused depreciation spikes.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524577#Comment_121524577

This isn’t in any way linked to reality, if you take all the ev owners on boards I can recall over the years less than a half dozen who regretted their purchase, most people are on their 2nd or 3rd now.

i public charge maybe once a year, my car is almost exclusively charged at night rate electricity at 14c a unit.

FaaF

In 2023, we've seen massive price cuts in recent weeks from Volkswagen and earlier this year from Tesla. We've also seen new entrants to the market from China in the form of BYD, with more expected to follow.

I think most of us are expecting price cuts from any of those legacy manufacturers who haven't cut yet? What are your thoughts?

I also believe we may see further cuts from Tesla in 2024.

The main goal of project Highland was to reduce production costs. It's now cheaper for Tesla to manufacture a Model 3 than it was when current pricing was set. The reductions here exclude lithium costs, which Tesla have no control over.

Now we move onto lithium. In some 2022 articles I've read, the suggestions is that battery costs make up 40% of a new vehicle cost and the minerals within those batteries make up about 60% of battery cost. Taken together, we can estimate that lithium makes up about 24% of total vehicle cost.

If we look at the price of Lithium, it's dropped 80% since Tesla's price cut in January (and a whopping 40% since just October).

So, with project Highland reducing manufacturing costs by, and I'm speculating here as I don't have the exact figure, 10% and the price drop of lithium contributing a further 19% (80% drop of 24% of the cost), Tesla's cost to manufacture since they set current prices has dropped by close to 30%.

With the recent ID4 cuts bringing the Germans back into a price range where people are less tempted to jump from the EU brands they've been loyal to for decades, I see no reason why Tesla couldn't hit the market with a further price cut and make it, once again, the case that you'd be absolutely mad to consider an ID4 over a Model 3/Y.

Whether they make this move or not, and whether VW stick with the recent price drops, will be a major factor in determining whether the Model Y or ID4 is the world's best selling car in 2024 - and Musks goal has always been for the Model Y to hold that honour.

Gumbo

We may see cuts.

We may see increases.

They may stay the same.

Have you got Saturdays lotto numbers 😂

January will be interesting to see if VW maintain their cuts on the new refresh model ID4. This could all be simply a fire sale to remove their excess stock of the outgoing model.

FaaF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525177#Comment_121525177

I think we can apply a bit more logic to it than forecasting lotto numbers to be honest 😂

It's becoming a much more competitive market with BYD entering and others on their heels.

A manufacturer in a competitive market, when production costs drop by 30%, is never going to be able to add that 30% to their bottom line indefinitely.

traco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121524881#Comment_121524881

The entire VAG group is struggling with EV sales due to price and their manufacturing supply change. Ford in a similar situation. Can't read the article but opening line states high prices. Hence the price drop and their effort to be competitive to boost sales. I imagine their boardroom meetsing are more about how to get their act together and compete in the EV market rather than going we're out - back to ICE.

Like em or loathe em, EV's are here to stay. Range is good enough and once the charging infrastructure improves and pricing gets competitive in that field over the coming years they will suit a significant majority of motorists. Just for reference I have servive engineers on the road covering the 32 counties with SLA's in place and we reckon the LR M3 is there but need a few more high speed charging locations in remote areas to be close to diesel. It would not be as simple but it would be workable and the fuel savings would be significant.

MojoMaker

More anti-EV rhetoric from another blow-in/casual visitor to the forum.

Yes, they're expensive, but hello - equivalent ICE vehicles are also just as expensive. In fact an Enyaq I looked at recently was a few grand cheaper than the equivalent-spec Kodiaq, so it does get you thinking alright.

Cars full stop are expensive and have shot up in price since Covid.

However earnings have also shot up since Covid, unless you're unlucky. When earnings go up and disposable income goes up, then discretionary purchases typically rise in price to match.

If you've got left behind a bit @tobefrank321 I'm sorry

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525182#Comment_121525182

BYD haven’t made it competitive IMO. They are more expensive than their counterparts €42k Tesla V €46k Seal for example. They’ve just slotted in at the current price range.

traco

New ICE is nuts and I do wonder about it. Friend has a 2021 Tiguan diesel on PCP. Due change in 24. GFMV or whatever is 18k or something and it was 43k in 2021. Replacement one coming in about 53k and I dodn't know what price the new new 2024 model is. His 2021 are being listed at 40k today

I'm probably totally wrong here but I think manufacturuers have inflated ICE prices to capiltalise on the global post covid used prices and that used ICE are now artificially inflated also. Of course for many its just the cost to change so you get a big bump on your GFMV, lob in a few k extra and your payments stay similar everyione is happy. However that traded in one is in my opinion way over priced and eventually will be corrected. I told him to buy it out at the 18k and carry one for another two or three years as I do beieve ICE has to correct pricing to stay in play for a lot of people not just teh long distance users.

slave1

seems a lot of vague posts popping up, is there some sort of XMas bug?

OP you know as much as us, big car companies are for profit, just because costs drop (is Tesla's new factories in Texas, Berlin and China free?) does not mean prices drop, revenue/profit/market share, there are many variables in play

who knows?