EV Depreciation 2023

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514564#Comment_121514564

I wouldn’t buy one either. Not my cup of tea but nothing wrong with it for the OP’s need. Although at 27k, a used Model 3 next year would be a better buy, a used ID3 or similar too.

Id rather buy second hand and get better value too.

djan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514576#Comment_121514576

Agreed, never understood people buying brand new cars, especially those with longer warranties when you can get a 30%+ discount on a 2 year old model with plenty of warranty left. M3 could be a good shout shout indeed but depends on pricing and car requirements.

sh81722

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514547#Comment_121514547

I never bought new before 2015, actually changed from 250 quid car to something costing 100 times more. At that time when the EVs were new and had low range it made sense to buy a new one to enjoy as good range as possible. But I suspect going forward I'll go for second hand again.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514600#Comment_121514600

someone has to buy them new.

dunnerc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514547#Comment_121514547

Ain't that the truth

gammon199

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514447#Comment_121514447

Nothing of great value though.

It's got a tiny battery, 44kWh and 89bhp, very basic spec too

I would wait it out, like you advised

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514447#Comment_121514447

Yeah that one looks attractive alright. Not in a rush so I'll see early next year how things are looking.

djan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514628#Comment_121514628

Yes, usually companies that can write them off as expenses. Little to no need for private users to be doing so as it just keeps the prices high. It's interesting to note that Ireland ranks highest for new car buyers in Europe so seems the reg plate system is working 😅

jlang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514628#Comment_121514628

Pre-Brexit that someone was often in England.

sh81722

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514765#Comment_121514765

And now the reg plate system has made buying new too expensive. Thanks SIMI.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514851#Comment_121514851

“I feel sorry for who listened,”

I know one tech guy, goes by the name of Mr. Wreckler, who listened 👀👀

Spipov

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514332#Comment_121514332

U selling yours somewhere?

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514927#Comment_121514927

I think he was more disappointed in the VW brand, in the last few lines of his article he was hoping for "retained value" buy a car from a start up like Tesla ,MG, BYD, you can sort of expect the unexpected,

liamog

Mod Note: Stick to the topic of EV depreciation affecting the current market, I've split out the new ev vs keep the old car rabbit hole https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058327728/did-it-ever-make-sense-to-move-from-an-old-combustion-car-to-a-new-ev

liamog

Looking at the latest DoneDeal Price Index (October '23) it's no wonder prices are correcting themselves. Brexit saw a collapse in used imports and the pandemic coupled supply constraints with extra disposable income. I don't know if this market correction depreciation is across the board, the price inceases seem to have mainly affected lower priced cars.

https://www.blog.donedeal.ie/post/donedeal-q3-car-price-index-annual-inflation-drops-to-10-5-lowest-rate-since-pandemic

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520566#Comment_121520566

There’s a strong chance it’s across the board. The downward trend in pricing is not limited to EV’s, I seen some info on ICE Porsches in the uk dropping like crazy. Stock building up on them too, which is seemly quite strange for Porsche. I wouldn’t know as I’m not in that end of the market 😀

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520632#Comment_121520632

I agree about the economy. I wouldn’t be borrowing a penny for anything at the moment. Go into it debt free if possible would be my advice.

FaaF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520763#Comment_121520763

Without doubt, the sensible move.

The original post complains about EV depreciation compared to that of their prior 330e - which they bought at 3 years old and lost hardly anything on after 2 years of driving. We all know this is not normal so it's not a valid comparison.

The Irish have had many years where they tended to buy vehicles from England having had already experienced their most severe depreciation.

A proportion of these buyers, since Brexit, moved the equity in a fully owned import to a deposit in their first new vehicle purchase, secured on a low interest PCP deal.

Many will have had their initial PCP deal end during the 2022-2023 period of abnormally high used vehicles prices combined with near-zero interest rates which, taken together, allowed movement to a new PCP deal with similarly low monthlies.

Fast forward to 2024 and many are going to find that you need a much higher household income than they initially thought to upgrade to a new vehicle every 2 years.

So the sensible idea is to avoid excessive debt until we see how the economy fares in 2024 - but it's a big ask for the above cohort because it will involve a significant vehicle downgrade when faced with zero equity at the end of their current PCP deal and normal (not excessively high as some believe) interest rates.

sk8board

Re EV depreciation, I think it’s fair to say that most EV buyers did so to reduce fuel bills and total lower cost of ownership, when in reality almost every early adopter to EV has had the opposite experience.

the vehicle itself performs exactly as expected, and any EV I know is very happy, and wouldn’t go back - but equally, it hasn’t been the reduced total cost of ownership they expected.

that said - the mass market buyer is a different persona to the early adopter - they won’t pay for a very expensive version of the same car they already own.

prices have to drop to capture that market. it’s just economics.

FaaF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521348#Comment_121521348

The 'early adopter phase' is something the US business news refer to a lot when referring to EV's.

Basically, the manufacturers all had a period where they could flog off EV's at ridiculously inflated prices to the wealthy tech-heads who wanted the latest thing that had been rarely seen in the wild. This was particularly true in the first of the more premium models like the Model S/X.

The period of paying up for an EV to have something different is over. The cost of ownership must make financial sense or sales will fall off a cliff. It's strange that some of the legacy manufacturers are reluctant to shout from the rooftops about the huge recent price cuts - almost as if they think it's a temporary phenomena. Personally, I believe it's a permanent thing and, if anything, I could see Tesla and BYD cut prices next year due to manufacturing efficiencies and economies of scale (though not to the extent of Tesla's price cuts this year as margins do become more compressed).

People worry about battery degradation and similar things but we've got to remember that, when the time comes, it'll rarely be an entire battery that needs replacing.

Also, the more significant adoption of full-fledged EV's is quite a new thing. There'll come a time where thousands are driving 15+ year old EV's on their original batteries with ample range for most (I exclude the early Leafs here because it doesn't take much degradation to become a problem for many if you start off with a sub-100 mile range). They'll speak with friends and colleagues facing the traditional big bills that eventually come with ICE models from Audi/BMW/etc and speak of how low the bills have been in their EV's.

sk8board

Isn’t the primary reason to own an EV the environment something something something…

reducing urban emissions is expensive.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521730#Comment_121521730

For some maybe.

For others no.

What’s an early adaptor? 2012? 2020?

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521736#Comment_121521736

I suppose it depends on volume.

the early early guys in a model S, leaf, i3 etc were a rarity in terms of volume, and depreciation was v heavy.

Likewise i think people paying €40k for the early Niro in 2019(?) onwards, are early adopters.

as for 2023, I’d argue anyone who bought an EV at those inflated prices is still an early adopter perhaps except for those heavily reduced model 3’s? Hard to see those drop much further, and everything is now headed to that price range.

Just some examples, but if you bought an ID4, enyaq or b4z4 etc in 2023, you’re the very definition of an early adopter - paying top dollar to enable the future rollout to the masses at lower prices.

is a 2024 id4 77kw for €42k an early adopter? I’d say no

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521768#Comment_121521768

I suppose it’s not clear cut.

I made profit on every Leaf and Model S I bought. But they were from the uk so not your typical buyer.

Same for the i3. And that’s just the EV’s, but I’ve always wheeled and dealed like that. I would never have a loan or borrow and as such my credit rating is probably in the can 😂.

I genuinely have no idea how PCP, HP or any of that work.

Everything leads to the current car which effectively cost me nothing but in paper the value would be half of its original values I’d say if I needed a quick sale. Not so much for a trade in as getting decent quotes off the Seal and ID4.

sk8board

An early adopter is someone who pays over the top for a new product that eventually the masses can buy (also brand new) for less.

i think people who bought an EV up to now fall pretty firmly into that definition -

but if the current prices are anything to go by, things like ID4’s or M3’s for €42k probably couldn’t be considered a completely over the top price

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521730#Comment_121521730

Ive yet to speak with anyone whose primary reason to buy an EV was on environmental grounds....perception of cheap running costs and quality of car being the only 2 of consequence

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521768#Comment_121521768

We got our niro in 2020.

Was in the market for a new car. Had an automatic Sportage. Could we have kept the 4 yr old car. Sure but was looking for a change.

To change to a niro was about 1k more expensive than a new automatic Sportage. (That old one barely done 5.2l/100km, more like 5.5)

That niro is now nearly 4 with 110k km on the clock. Haven't looked at trading yet but last time I checked the local dealer has 4 niros up for sale at about 30k. I'd say I'd be lucky to get 20-25k!

Played the electricity game right too, and up until September, my night electric was was 7-8c or below. Now it's 14.75.

Reason for changing: back in 2019/2020 new toy 😂.

The reduced the fuel costs was a fantastic bonus.

For that 110k km, at 5.5 is about 6000L diesel, let's say 1.70, that's 10k

Car is usually at 16, but this weather is 18. Call it 18, +15% for charging losses =20.7, 20 for easy counting. 22,000kwh at 9c. €1980.

2020 night rate was 7.4c, changed to 5.8 in aug 21, to 7.9 in aug 22, and then 14.75 in sept of 23.

Possibly throw a few Hundred in for public charging.

200 on ecars and say 100 on the rest.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521942#Comment_121521942

That's a great post. You have to balance depreciation with fuel savings. At some stage the car will be free, compared to staying with an ICE, with people doing higher mileage getting faster payback.

It probably makes more sense in Ireland with high fuel costs and less range anxiety.

Gumbo

I just wanted the M5 performance for 520d running costs. That’s still the case now.

The tech also helps.

Buddy Bubs

My reason was I could have it without incurring BIK. So essentially a tax break. Although that will come to an end.