EV Depreciation

Plenty of EVs now are cheaper than an ICE equivalent. And in general, new car prices have increased quite a lot over the last couple of years, so unfortunately loads of people have been priced out of the new car market, EV or ICE. And if it wasn't for PCP it would be even worse.

Around 300 horsepower with all the gadgets in a rear wheel drive saloon for under 45k? Not sure what is getting close to that other than a Model 3 or Seal.

Similarly over 200 horsepower with toys in a family hatchback for 30k, that'll be the MG 4. A shite spec manual diesel Golf is 10k more than that.

Early adopters go back to maybe 2012. Back when a Leaf was 17K and up to maybe 2019 when a Leaf was still a shade under 20K on the road.

Anyone buying since 22/23 is a mainstream adopter - and thankfully, as options, infrastructure, and capacity, don't grow without mainstream adopters piling into the market.

I would probably disagree that 22/23 buyers are mass market, simply because EV's were still hard to get in that period, esp in '22 (EV6, Ioniq 5 etc), and they actually increased in price in many cases in those years too (due to the shortage/delays), and many of those EV sales were company cars and taxi's.

We're still at the early adopter stage when it comes to price - if we weren't, prices wouldn't need to drop so much.

As for functionality (as in - does an EV suit my needs), theres still a big education gap. the tesla M3 dropped price in early '23 to a level that probably made it the best value "car" on the market full stop, and yet the mass market didn't bite at all (its 1% of total sales in '22 & '23). what mostly happened was that tesla early adopters moved into the MY, meaning the Y didn't attract the mass market buyers here either.

The key challenge Tesla have here is not their pricing model but the lack of dealers and the fact they force you to become a second-hand car salesman. They need to look after their own customers and offer decent trade in's on Tesla they can easily retail- like they do in other markets and in fairness as VW and the other traditional brands like Kia or Hyundai are doing

I agree with this and am suspicious of how little they are offering on trade ins and how few used Model 3's they have listed on their own website.

Surely they are missing the markup they could earn on those wanting used Tesla's. My suspicion revolves around whether they know internally that a 2024 price cut is on the cards due to the reduced cost to manufacture the new Highland model.

Perhaps they'll cut prices in 2024 and increase willingness to take trade ins, albeit at lower values than what owners would expect today - with the cost to change not being negatively impacted for current owners due to any forthcoming price cuts.

All speculation, of course.

Everett Roger classified it as follows in 1971,

I think less than 2% of the national fleet are BEVs, so we're still in the Innovator phase (in Ireland) and yet to get into the Early Adopter category.

Tesla have absolutely zero interest in touching their own second hand cars and likely never will.

Of car registrations in the first 6 months of this year, 18.46% were EV's.

With new entrants in the field and VW price cuts, assuming they stick and aren't just to get rid of excess stock, the next 6-12 months should see that figure rise.

That does place us squarely in the early majority phase which does make sense. There's no way in hell I'd consider the buyer of an EV in Ireland today an "innovator".

Some of the newer EVs particularly the German models are massively overpriced. Once people understand the realities of EV ownership after the initial honeymoon period wears off, many want to go back to petrol or diesel and will offload at any price.

The glamour of waiting half an hour at a charging station on the way somewhere quickly wears off, as does high domestic electricity prices.

Yes I have. And by waiting at a charger you do know I meant waiting 30 mins for your car to actually charge, as oppose to waiting in a queue, both of which I've experienced.

Good for you by the way.

Electricity.

Question for you. Do the 9 of yee also have petrol/diesel/hybrid models in the family?

Do you do long journeys and how often?

As I said some of the German models with good range are overpriced for the average buyer.

That said, your average 100 grand petrol or diesel car will also depreciate 10-15k in the first year, so this is not just an EV issue. Expensive cars depreciate hugely.