EV Depreciation 2023

sh81722

So, any predictions on the manufactures that will fail:

I have Nissan, Stellantis, Honda on the top of mine. I don't think Toyota will fail but they'll need a big course change. All of the Germans will need to cut costs a lot.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525298#Comment_121525298

Ionity is now plug and charge (for me at least with an Audi)

cannco253

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-brand-take-over-german-govts-share-ev-subsidy-2023-12-19/

BERLIN, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Audi, Mercedes-Benz (MBGn.DE), Stellantis and the Volkswagen brand (VOWG_p.DE) say they will fund a subsidy for German electric vehicle (EV) buyers after the government this week abruptly dropped a state-funded scheme.

I wonder how much this will cost?

sh81722

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525976#Comment_121525976

Sounds very much like the "scrappage scheme" Nissan had back in the 2015 when they offered us 4000 for the car I paid 250 for a couple of years earlier, i.e. a discount in disguise.

tobefrank321

Anyways...regards the depreciation, I would say some higher end models are depreciating hugely as many people prefer to buy new or have the latest model which is fair enough. There might be an over supply of higher end second hand models with not enough demand, hence the price drop.

At the low to mid price range I would say demand is reasonably ok and depreciation not as big a problem.

There's still question marks over the infrastructure and issues like multiple apps for chargers is not helpful. Also the very specialist nature of fixing electric cars if something goes wrong can be an issue. Its not like you can drop it into Paddy the mechanic up the road who'll have it going again in no time.

There's still work to do to get EVs mainstream and by that I mean a critical mass of all sections of society.

And that's where I will be parking this discussion!

sh81722

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526022#Comment_121526022

Fair points. I think the biggest issue for mechanics haven't upskilled yet is that the cars have long EV component specific warranties and the failures follow the bath tub curve, i.e. the either fail early or then at the end of the life. And as there is very little routine maintenence needed apart from cabin air filters and brake fluid. Hence the number of mechanics needed in the future, that currently do mainly oil changes, are a dying breed.

In our case the 2016 Nissan is still with the original brake parts and suspension at 105k and I reckon it can do another 50 at least before the brakes are needed. Maybe it will need lower control arm bushing then, maybe not. Next brake fluid sevice in two years time. The cabin air filter I'll change myself next year. The '21 Tesla at 71k hasn't had any service done at all, even the filter. Have to actually do that tomorrow, thanks for reminding me.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525796#Comment_121525796

You're almost correct, you just omitted the word 'new'.

New ICE will be rare and expensive, new EVs will be common and cheap(er).

Old ICE will be common as. Anyone planning on buying a new ICE next year needs to step back and have a think about where the market is going.

gammon199

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525942#Comment_121525942

Honda have had records profits this year, no fear of them, they have plenty of buyers outside the crazy climate change EU.

Stellantis again record profits, only EV's are profit losing, but they have exposed themselves too much with EV's, some hurt coming, could be bailouts

VW are in massive trouble, share price halved in less than 2 years, shareholders are looking for blood.

Toyota are the biggest car maker in the world and profitable, look at the share price, they will be fine

Nissan could be bought by someone, Renault group don't know what they are doing with them, maybe Japanese government or the Chinese or a giant like Toyota etc

They only thing all those companies have in common is they are all bleeding money on EV's and will have to stop the cut someway.

I think the Germans have went in too hard too soon on EV's and will be looking for bailouts by end of the decade.

gammon199

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525976#Comment_121525976

Why are they doing this though? We are being told EV's are great, sales are up year after year, public want them, all looking good.

Germans have no problem with ICE

gammon199

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526058#Comment_121526058

Why if depreciation is hitting EV's the hardest

EV owners should be looking at where market is going

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525520#Comment_121525520

I wouldn’t call them dirty tricks.

It’s simply levelling the playing field to make it fair

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525408#Comment_121525408

Depends on the percentage of sales in the year of purchase. So for instance the people purchasing new EVs when sales were below 2.5% fall into the innovators category and those purchasing before 13.5% fall into early adopters.

The total fleet percentage fails pretty badly as the risk profile of people buying EVs now doesn't reflect the description of the groups.

There's flaws in applying the model either way, but I think that EVs are moving into the mainstream is a more accurate statement

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525467#Comment_121525467

BYD are building a factory in Hungary. So by the time the EU does this it probably wont be an issue for them.

Tesla could move the Model 3 production to Germany and avoid the 10% also.

It would obviously be an issue for other Chinese made cars but the big two already have ways around this.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525635#Comment_121525635

i believe VW supply china with locally produced cars as opposed to from Germany. So no tariffs

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526079#Comment_121526079

We get scrappage schemes with petrol and diesel too. Why not EV?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525781#Comment_121525781

They are of course profitable in China - they are luxury brands to the Chinese and do not try to compete with Chinese budget brands.

The difference is in the EV market names like VW, BMW, Audi etc do not carry the same weight, which will struggle more to justify the higher price. No longer have engines as big difference between brands. Basically it all comes down to styling and extras, software, infotainment.

Range obviously is the big one but that applies to all brands and is just a factor of battery technology and size, which is moreelss the same for all manufacturers

tobefrank321

Just in the interests of bringing some evidence into this discussion.

2023 EVs

https://www.carzone.ie/search?minYear=2023&maxYear=2023&fuelType=Electric

2022 EVs

https://www.carzone.ie/search?minYear=2022&maxYear=2022&fuelType=Electric

Not a perfect comparison due to different specs. People can do their own research.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526085#Comment_121526085

You're only looking at the market now: EV depreciation is bad now => Demand in future will be bad.

Look at climate and health scientists findings and predictions. Look at national and EU regulations. Look at the manufacturers' plans for assembly lines. The wind is blowing strongly in the EV direction. There isn't any likely scenario where ICE units sold (including Hybrids) are more in 5 years time than now.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121525255#Comment_121525255

Define struggling, sales percentage keeps on increasing year on year, more models are released filling more needs. I don't think the price corrections which are bringing the price of new EVs back down to reasonable levels are going to result in next years sales reducing.

The narrative of struggling sales whilst sales percentages are still increasing is one of the weirder media tropes I see right now.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526173#Comment_121526173

EV sales are +44% for 2023 v 2022, but it was all in Jan-Aug and EV registrations are actually down 21% YoY since Sept 1 (lower volumes, sure, but still thousands of cars, and meanwhile hybrids registrations are +52% YoY in the same period, and ICE was -20% in line with BEV).

swap Hybrid with BEV and your argument would hold water.

i think we can all agree that one thing that’s definitely changing in January, is that EV prices are substantially lower, closer to market reality, AND there’s no delays on delivery.

if you want an EV you can have one.

i think EV’s will continue to grow their share of new vehicles next year, but just going from 15% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2023 is hardly seismic - if it got to 22% share in 2024 it would be huge.

Mass market buyers aren’t biting, and anyone who wanted an EV since Jan 2020 has ordered, waited, and received theirs.

as more and more of those buyers try to get out of those EVs, that’s what will cause further depreciation in the 2nd hand market.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526260#Comment_121526260

what do you mean get out of those EV's? as in trade them in for new ones? why is that an EV issue, thats just cars.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526260#Comment_121526260

We have a cyclical sales cycle based on the twice-yearly plate change. Cherry picking particular months to claim that EV sales are struggling is as daft as claiming that EV were sales were 47.89% in June and that that number is anyway meaningful. The only meaningful insight I'd take from the 2nd half of 2023 is that EV sales are at 18.89% vs 17.87% for the same period last year. Sales aren't struggling they are maintaining.

Will be interesting to see how the first 6 months of next year work out now that the lack of cheap credit is tightening so many purses.

liamog

Mod Note: Depreciation and the wave of price reductions are directly tied together, merged the two threads as they are two sides of the same coin

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526486#Comment_121526486

I just mean that there’s not many second hand options for sale today, for a lot of models (apart from the ID3/4). And everything that’s there today is expensive and not selling.

Meanwhile theres pcp EVs that could easily be underwater on the GMV at the end of the 3 years.

Imagine how many €55-70k ID4/5’s have €30-40k+ balloons that won’t be worth close to that when 3 years old, and coming out of 0% into a higher interest rate and monthly.

they’ll want to trade into something new rather than pay the balloon - and that means more, and cheaper, volume on the 2nd hand market.

all I’m saying, is that if you’re looking for a 2nd hand EV, I’d sit tight for a few months.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526760#Comment_121526760

id say there are no 55-60k ID4s with 30-40k balloons.

Sheedy234

Just got an email that the government are stopping 1/2 price toll rates as of December 31st. Makes no sense along with reducing grant on ev car and ev chargers

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121527020#Comment_121527020

Prices of EVs are dropping, in big chunks. The government doesn’t need to continue subsidising their rollout.

galvo_clare

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514452#Comment_121514452

Tax on the 520d in 2008 was actually €150. I bought mine in July that year at the start of the new co2 rules and still have it. Had a 2006 520d that I got rid of in April before the market had adjusted so did well.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121527120#Comment_121527120

€156! I had one too 😂

sk8board

With the recent price drops, is the ID4 one of the best value new EV in simple terms of purchase price divided by WLTP range?

e.g a €42.5k ID4 with wltp of 525km is €80/km?

just a thought