Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Elmer Blooker

You would think the Azores would be weakening as it does towards winters end but I’m beginning to think only an asteroid impact will get rid of it.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121789675#Comment_121789675

https://earthsky.org/space/big-dead-satellite-crash-earth-ers-2-february-2024/

Your desire may become reality on Wednesday...... Sorry but I couldn't resist!

JanuarySnowstor

Combined with sub 528 thickness is it enough to create snow??

Gonzo

This will be cold rain for the most part with maybe a hint of sleet in it at times, I think snow will be mainly confined above 600 meters or thereabouts. The only place that looks like getting any sort of measurable snow is the Scottish highlands. For us this will be mostly cold, wet and high heating bills. We are better off with the mild weather continuing than this.

Uppers are not that cold in the -2 to -4 range, daytime temperatures around 6 to 9C and dew points likely positive as well. Far from ideal for snow.

pad199207

It looks truly miserable. On to spring now with hopefully a drier trend.

WolfeEire

A truly horrible weather outlook for the next 10 days. Too mild to snow and too cold to avoid turning on the heating for extended periods of the day. Roll on the warmth and the longer days.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121791055#Comment_121791055

If it's any consolation we may as well get one (final) blast of cold weather out of the way now when it's still technically very much winter.

The worst is when the cold lingers on into early April.

I'd take a cold, two-week period at the end of February/early March if it means a warmer April and May.

JanuarySnowstor

Thicknesses remain very good from Thursday morning onwards. In heavier ppn the uppers may not matter so much. I expect we could see quite a bit of falling snow, albeit not lying away from Mountains

Foggy Jew

No dedicated thread for this possible event on Boards, or have I missed it? Usually the barest possibility of a flake or two merits it’s own thread.

Rebelbrowser

Can't see any model showing lying snow save over mountain areas, but you never know I suppose

pauldry

No not worth the disappointment.

Seems a wet messy scenario for most. Yal have to wait til March for lying snow.

Low seems to have moderated a lot as each forecast passed.

JanuarySnowstor

Things are upgrading for early Friday morning. Could be quite a bit of snow for the West and Southwest

SnowyMuckish

What are the chances of it lying?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121798523#Comment_121798523

A decent chance above 1200 meters or so.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121798523#Comment_121798523

Met office mountain forecast for the Mourne mountains has the snow level dropping to 300-400m tomorrow. Top half or so of muckish probably white by tomorrow afternoon. Pushing the snow level back up by 100m on Friday.

JanuarySnowstor

Thursday night / early Friday looks like the main risk for falling snow. Lying snow looks non existent away from mountains. Also it's primarily a Western event. Better than nothing, just!

pauldry

Maybe we'll get some heavy hail. Haven't had much of that this Winter. Could make a hail ball on the car roof.

Looks quite unsettled but heaviest rain is missing us at times so the 100mmI thought might be 50mm more by month end

Gonzo

Next few days will have some cold rain but not much, sleet and snow mostly confined to the peaks where nobody lives. We go back into a mild pattern beginning to March but closer to average compared to the record breaking warmth of the past month. Winter is over and never really got started in the first place. A mild or very mild February is often followed by a similar March and vice versa. The only thing I'm looking for in the models from now till Autumn is high pressure and prolonged spells of dryness and plenty of warmth followed by Summer heat plumes and thunder, bring it on!.

The Spring FI thread will begin in a few days, good riddance to yet another pear shaped winter with loads of promise and no delivery.

nacho libre

I think we will have a cold March overall. Anyone looking for spring warmth maybe disappointed

pauldry

Winters are getting warmer and less snowy every year. Also I'd reckon the warming of Winter will only increase so itl be very rare to get prolonged snow in future but still possible. Still though Ireland will probably be 14c in Summer while it's 40c everywhere else.

Next 5 days cold and showery. Some sleet mixed in but sun feels a lot warmer now than January so it's Spring now even if it gets cold.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121801961#Comment_121801961

I feel our summers are getting warmer especially over the past 5 years. We've had 2 poor summers in that timeline, last summer and Summer 2020 which followed the excellent Spring 2020 however both bad summers contained some very warm weather. I have definitely noticed we are tapping into hotter air easier recently including heat plumes which used to be primarily focused on London and SE England. Reaching 25C or more was fairly rare in Meath, might happen once every 2 to 3 summers but now we are getting this every single summer for a few days at least. September is also starting to play out more like a summer month regularly now too with low to mid 20s happening most Septembers over the past few years.

Meteorite58

Less mild than what was showing a number of days ago for today but still getting up to around 10C in places, more like 8 to 9c for large parts of the country. A bit cooler tomorrow and then decent enough for a few days until it gets cooler from after midweek it would seem. Nights cool and frosty in places. Large parts of the country remaining mostly dry for a few days, probably weak frontal rain on Tuesday and looks like heavier frontal rain around Weds at some stage.

JanuarySnowstor

The rain over the South tomorrow looks very heavy. Surprised no warning

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121814058#Comment_121814058

Yes some of the models showing a fair bit of rain in the S, SW all right, mostly gone through in the afternoon.

.Donegal.

GFS with some slight accumulations across the North and patchy elsewhere to start to spring.

The following morning has some overnight snow in the SW.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121820108#Comment_121820108

I’ll believe it when I see it! Not even a hint of snow in Cork this winter.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121820520#Comment_121820520

Not a hint of snow for much of Munster, Leinster and midlands away from high ground, a few places got lucky with temporary slushy mix. Given all the excitement leading into this winter it totally bellyflopped for much of Ireland, Wales and England. I've only seen one winter as bad as this one with not a flake of snow and that was the PV of Doom winter think that was winter 2020. Not much snow in the EU continent this winter either. Scandinavia and Scotland got the best of anything that was going this winter, particularly Scandinavia which had a very cold winter from very early on.

I feel the extremely warm North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly played a major role in why this winter was another very mild one for the most part and of course the high pressure sitting over Portugal and Spain all the way through winter.

From early November the long term models performed appallingly especially the ECMWF 46 with weeks and weeks of high pressure centered over Greenland and lasting well into February. In reality the high pressure barely made it to Greenland and very little aligned up for us. UKMO forecasts for January also fell apart for the most part. A Winter best forgotten about.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121820686#Comment_121820686

Hi Gonzo, hope you're keeping well.

Yes them seriously warm sea temperatures last autumn seems to have a significant effect on our weather. The forecast models seemed to struggle badly, even at five days out.

Just as the land was drying out there's more rain on the way. I have hope we'll get a nice dry cool easterly in March rather than last years disaster.

WolfeEire

A colder northwesterly to northerly polar maritime airflow will become established Thursday and Friday with plenty of wintry showers feeding across the country. Snow possible in parts, particularly on higher ground away from Atlantic facing coasts. Remaining cold into next week.