Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Very big seas off Atlantic coasts with strong onshore breezes associated with now named Storm Pia . Prolonged strong winds over land from later Weds through much of Thurs. Rain not a huge issue but probably a good runoff from higher terrain in the W, NW and N and a few inland elevated areas.

Relatively mild at around 10 or 11C during Thurs.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1737473079456956499

WolfeEire

That Dec 27th still showing up. This the latest from the GFS

Meteorite58

Some very big rainfall totals for the 24hrs into Weds afternoon and a lot of it will have fallen overnight into early morning so spot flooding a risk.

More counties could be added to the rainfall warnings. Becoming breezy to windy across the country later Tues into Weds, quite windy along W, NW, N, NE and later into the SW, S, SE and E coastal areas.

Weds evening set to become very windy or even stormy in the SW or W or both and along S, SE, W coasts and very strong winds overland into Thurs and only slowly moderating , remaining blustery in the Northern half of the country into the evening/ night . Would expect warnings, mostly yellow and possibly close to Orange in the SW or W or both.

After the frontal rains go through on Weds turning more convective in nature with hail and thunderstorms possible especially along Atlantic counties as we are under a very cold upper pool, some moving inland and squally in nature. Some sleet showers also in the mix. A lot of vorticity and shear in the atmosphere... wonder will we hear of any funnels or Tornadoes.

Turning cooler then of late and more so given the windchill effect. A much rougher passage of weather then of late with strong winds, high rainfall and cold temperatures.

Very high sea states, want to keep an eye on those high tides on Weds and Thurs ( Spring tides ) along the Atlantic Seaboard, especially Thurs with all the run off from the heavy rain into Weds especially around the SW, S coasts.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann updating rainfall warnings.

Storm 10

At last something stirring to keep us interested it was so quite the last few days but now it looks like we could see a couple of interesting days of weather. Thanks to all the posters here who keep us in the weather loop of coming events.

Donegal Ken

The Ecmwf and Gfs models showing the risk of a band of rain moving northwards on later Friday night into Saturday morning bumping into colder air across the west, northwest and north and turning to snow for places. This needs to be watched and potentially could give the first real snowfall of the winter season. Some higher resolution models also showing this.

Meteorite58

A bit to go yet with Saturdays system. Deepening on approach but so far keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas in the W, SW, S, SE and blustery overland. Very wet again along the W and SW and could see some wintry falls in the NW, N and on elevated ground in the W and maybe a few more spots.

Supercell

Fax chart for Saturday evening looks rough, especially out west. The atlantic well and truly in control.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121542809#Comment_121542809

I’m a glass half empty person this morning. I am so fed up with all this relentless wind and rain as I’m sure many on this forum are.

I fear the Atlantic will still be in control well into January despite all these background signals for colder weather. Hope to god I am wrong!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121542881#Comment_121542881

Unfortunately looking at some of the output this morning you maybe right. The post 120 hour thread has gone quiet. I think we will still get a ssw and a cold spell at some point during the winter, but I am less confident of one in january now

Meteorite58

The large system on Saturday showing different tracks on the main models but currently does not look to produce storm force winds on land, not as tight isobars, looks worse than what it will probably produce. Relatively slow moving but the position of the center crossing the country keeps the strongest winds offshore. Windy certainly around the coastal areas may warrant yellow warnings, maybe orange sea area warnings.

Some models showing the initial front to cross the country early Saturday as brining heavy rain and blustery conditions. A lot of rain to come between here and Sunday with Atlantic coastal counties getting the most.

Parameters present for Thunderstorm activity on Saturday following the front in the more unstable airmass but mostly around the coasts over water, CAPE is not huge but plenty of LLS and DLS with decent Lapse rates at times, will see if a few migrate further inland. A lot of Vorticity in the system and very cold uppers all aiding convection. Perhaps more opportunities for Tornadoes but as ever relatively low chance, squally showers with downdraughts and hail showers possible, sleety on higher ground.

Wintry further North Fri into Saturday. Could be a fair dump of wet sleet to snow on Saturday in the NW, N and high ground in the W perhaps as the front meets the colder airmass. Still windy on Sunday with showers mainly along Atlantic coastal areas. Looks a lot drier and calmer for Bank Holiday Monday at present.

Supercell

Don't like the look of this at all, flooding I'd imagine is going to be a problem. We've had sustained high winds for a while now , so would imagine anything likely to be blown over already has been so hopefully wind, though strong enough, likely isn't going to be the main factor here. The ground here is totally sodden, nearby "Kilbogget Park" is already flooding in places i've rarely seen before.

Meteorite58

Quite windy in the SW tomorrow. Plenty of showers and rain along the coasts, a few hail showers too possible

Rebelbrowser

A lot of excitement now in other threads for the potential for some real cold from ca. 15 January onwards, but in the shorter term there is a bit of an easterly with cold uppers from this Sunday with some chance of white gold falling from streamers (i.e, for the uninitiated, showers of snow that develop over the Irish sea from the interaction between sufficiently cold air and the warmer sea below). That said, the latest GFS at 6z doesn't support any snow unfortunately....

Meteorite58

Hp becoming dominant, slack airs, very low levels of precipitation, fog over the weekend especially Sunday morning and again possibly Sun night. Widespread frosts becoming a feature and getting colder as the days go on, low temperatures during the day, freezing early at night especially from Sunday could see freezing before or just after dark from Monday. Good sunshine levels Fri, Sat and for a good part of the country on Sunday , foggy conditions might be slow to clear and lift in parts of the Southern half of the country. GFS is a bit less cold as the week goes on but remains frosty at night, ECM keeps it very cold and sees some days struggling to get up a few degrees in places with widespread hard frosts.

Supercell

Lovely calm,cool spell coming up, doesn't look like much wintry precipitation but I don't mind that after the autumn and December we just had. By Monday it looks likely that there will be a chilly breeze on the east and south east coasts with perhaps some snizzle and low cloud, too early to call much details on that though. I'll take what's on offer below any day :)

Rebelbrowser

There looks to be some chance on present charts for snow showers in the South / South East on Tuesday. No accumulations likely but a reasonable chance of seeing falling snow. Will post charts tomorrow evening as the Hi Res models begin to cover the relevant period and if this is still a runner then

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121577611#Comment_121577611

Based on the UKMO and GFS, there is a great chance of somewhere in Ireland places seeing snow Monday night into Tuesday

Rebelbrowser

All in all, today's output has made snow this Tuesday less likely, but just looking at tonight's Aperge there is definitely still interest for the South....

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581352#Comment_121581352

Ukmo still going for snow over parts of Cork and Waterford

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581393#Comment_121581393

As is the ARPEGE which is normally quite conservative on showing up precip from streamer / lake effect activity. A sprinkling likely in a few spots.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581437#Comment_121581437

With only some of the precipitation area being hatched, this would suggest that the chances of lying slow are somewhat lessened with the likelihood that most areas away from high ground (which means most people) will probably see falling snow but melting on contact, at best. Of course, anywhere up high like the Reeks in Kerry would probably see any snow falling to lie readily, elevation dependent of course.

Then there's the air pressure. This is forecast to be will above 1030 hPa. This does not lend itself to allowing clouds to build to a height where precipitation can fall so cloud heights will probably be rather modest

This is why the amount of precipitation forecast to fall is very small. That in itself does not bode well as small amounts of snow falling in a fairly marginal setup usually results in damp ground.

Then there's the wind; it looks like there'll be a breeze during any precipitation events. This will result in evaporative cooling being unlikely to occur as there'd be a fair of mixing of the air, something that can be essential during marginal events like this. Any mixing of marine air will kill any chances of snow falling. This is likely to be the case closer to the coast. Inland and up high are the best places but of course, the further inland you are, the less likely you are to have precipitation in the first place

In short, I'm nowhere convinced that anyone away from high ground will see a white covering of snow from this "event".

JanuarySnowstor

Chances remain for the South coast on Monday night early Tuesday and after waning a bit last night appear better again this morning. It really is just a South Coast risk but of course would still affect highly populated areas like Cork and Waterford.

It's a very cold pool and the fact that dewpoints are also very low what falls should be snow or snowgrains. Also as its mainly a nighttime situation what falls would be onto frozen ground.

So in summary interest remains but its limited to about 6 hours midnight to 6am. The most likely result is waking up on Tuesday morning with some snowgrains on your car that folk outside of weather nerds would think was heavy frost anyway.

esposito

For the east no mention of snow or flurries for Mon/Tues (like Siobhan mentioned last week) just ‘light showers’. Was never expecting much but thought it would be cold enough for a flurry. In January and all. So much for the ‘If only it was January’ line a lot of us often say on here.

Anyway, onto bigger and better things hopefully in 10 days time.

pureza

Showers off the Atlantic on the south coast next week if they are there at all will probably be rain,

Ditto anything on the East

joe199

Il take dry and bright for now to

be honest after the past few weeks of terrible weather

JanuarySnowstor

The arome is picking up quite a bit of ppn across the South Coast around 3am Tuesday. Just Cork and Waterford really but could at least provide a dusting by Tuesday morning..

JanuarySnowstor

The ukmo also has it. Light ppn but under minus 9 uppers what falls is snow

JanuarySnowstor

Cork Tuesday morning, one of the coldest areas in Western Europe!! For about 2 hours lol. Jokes aside potential here that of course Met Eireann are snoozing through.

JanuarySnowstor

Add the arpege also!! Another conservative model. Snow across the South Coast