Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Rebelbrowser

Dusting at best I suspect but with as little snow as we see in this country we aren't really in a position to be too snobby about it. Will be keeping a close eye on models for the next 48 hours

WolfeEire

Arome definitely showing some light snow in places in the south Tuesday morning

pureza

You might be lucky inland or up at cork airport *if* uppers are -9 or below but its doubtfull they will be

Regardless Marine air will ensure that what falls on the ground in off the Atlantic in Cork If anything comes in off the Atlantic at all will be watery next week

Use your head here,not anything else folks ,ignore the computer hatches,they're often wrong

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121582413#Comment_121582413

If I used my head I would think they are under doing convection. Easterlys with 850s of less than -8 and dewpoints of -4 mean only one word!! Snow is a certainty, how much ppn is the only question for me. Remember dps from an Easterly or very different to marine air as you like to say....latest chart from ecm, slow to the party but now on track aswell

JanuarySnowstor

Not a mention on the farming forecast about the risk tomorrow night on the South Coast!! Every model shows some ppn yet she only mentions the odd shower in the East. If it does snow in Cork tomorrow night what a total failure of a forecast to blatantly ignore the models... here's betting they will issue a yellow snow warning 2 hours before the event!!

OK it might not work out but to blatantly ignore the risk!! As ever time will tell...

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121582646#Comment_121582646

Not a word ,frankly because they're using their heads

The marine layer under those showers if they exist will quickly lift dew points and wet bulbs above zero

Rebelbrowser

To be fair JS it's a 50/50 risk of little more than a dusting in all likelihood. They know if they forecast snow they create big expectation. If the charts still suggest a the same risk tomorrow at 6pm they definitely should reference this in the 6pm forecast, completely agree - but no need to do that beforehand. There seems to be very little chance of any significant snowfall (though I live in hope!) so no need to be putting out warnings etc. You've got to take on board what someone like Pureza thinks, he may be a newbie on here (ahem...) but I suspect he has forgotten more than most of us will ever know about weather. Again though, I hope he is hideously incorrect and there are unexpected blizzards overnight on Monday / Tuesday... Equally, well done to you in highlighting this risk a long time ago.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121582731#Comment_121582731

Yes all points are valid and I have been incorrect as much as anyone else!! Let's see what next runs show, icon already rolling

JanuarySnowstor

So the 12z ICON, same as you were. But to analyse at a micro level, a nudge in the right direction:

- lower heights

- 850s at least -8 and very slightly North again

- Related to above predicted ppn slightly North again

These are all micro changes, you can only see them by looking frame by frame comparing previous run. But they are all nudges in right direction for South Coast

pureza

Of course,I hope I'm hideously incorrect too

But to counteract that marine layer you need a flow of decently cold surface air

Not 100's of km's of open warm water marine layer that penetrates at least a few hundred metres above that rather warm sea surface

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs, more upgrades here Monday night!! -10 850s now across the South Coast and ppn getting more defined. Dewpoints -4, freezing ground preceding it. Everything is primed!

JanuarySnowstor

PPN getting more defined!! It's game on

JanuarySnowstor

12z arome, snow across South Coast.

OK maybe it will be light, but more upgrades could easily happen. The uppers are extremely cold. We don't often get -10s across the South Coast...

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121582979#Comment_121582979

Just to point out that with pressure around 1033hpa the 850hpa later is likely about a 1000ft higher than it would be in a lower pressure set up of say 993hpa. And the dry air will have greater lapse rates.

So -8c at 850hpa tomorrow will be the equivalent of about -5c at 850hpa on that 993hpa day...

Perhaps someone who's better with finding the charts could do an actual comparison.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583450#Comment_121583450

Thanks, I wouldn't have known that..though there is a trend in the last 24hrs to slightly lower the pressure. Perhaps why Met Eireann are not interested

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583577#Comment_121583577

Also don’t ME work off harmonie for precipitation and there is nothing showing up on that yet.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583642#Comment_121583642

There is the slightest suggestion of snow showers on the latest Harmonie (only shows southern Ireland but that's enough for present purposes). It's blown up below also - as blink and you might miss it!

JanuarySnowstor

Quite a bit of ppn showing on the control. Slight upgrades all day, if this continues its 2 or 3cm for the South

Rebelbrowser

Yeah, I know the charts for 15th onwards are understandably getting a lot of attention, but the bird in the hand nature of charts showing snow in 36 hours time is being overlooked IMHO....

Rebelbrowser

Just to post lying snow charts from a few of tonight's models. No consensus but plenty to give you hope...

Meteorite58

Just my own amateur thoughts, always learning....... 528dam line over most of Ireland on Tuesday. Snow line down nice and low and seeing 850hpa down as low as -10C and upper 500hpa temps down nice and low. Wet bulb ok for some light snow to settle a bit in from the coasts. Bit of an E, SE breeze over the water stirring up the temps a bit along the coasts possibly keeping them up a few degrees in coastal areas. There could be a fair blanket cloud cover keeping the temps up a bit for parts as indicated by the temp charts below. Precipitation looks light in general. A few showers could give a couple of cm's in a few spots but in general a dusting for most at this stage in the areas shown on the chart below . HP quite high for any decent amount of snow. Was wondering if we might see reports of graupel on Tuesday from around Cork, was thinking we might see some light precipitation falling from mid level clouds too?

Models will get more dialed in tomorrow but at this stage having looked through all the models it looks a dusting for most in the area along the S, SE and maybe parts of the E, a couple of cm's in a few spots is possible, high ground along the E, SE, S and maybe clipping the SW could get a nice dusting.

WRF latest run just out and showing more snow than the all the European models at this stage, good model though so not to be discounted but way out in front so would need to side more with the Euros at this stage.

John.Icy

May not necessarily be that light either? I'm not well versed in convection, but I don't think many if any models had prolonged spells of moderate precip. for Dublin tonight. And looking further east in the Irish sea, there's still good activity forming near Anglesey. Don't think conditions were massively in favour for anything more than 'light' tonight either. But we got a few green/yellow cores on the ME radar for the last few hours which have plenty of oomph to them.

Surely by late Monday/Tuesday early AM with much colder air moving over the relatively warm sea, we could see more enhanced convection and override a couple of the things going against us? Pressure similar enough, already nearly 1035 hPa tonight, can't really go much higher. Not familiar enough with any other major factors to go checking them and comparing tonight vs.the next 48 hours.

I remember the February 2021 failed easterly. To many of our untrained eyes we were expecting the goods...very cold airmass, brisk easterlies and low pressure/heights. But a couple of wise heads who knew what to check said nothing more than snizzle was supported, and that's what we got for several days straight in the end. Can't remember for the life of me what parameter crippled the whole thing.

I'm guessing what Reversal posted earlier means similarly our -10c at 850s level is more like -7c in reality due to the high pressure? Ergo still iffy enough especially those near the coast.

JanuarySnowstor

MT doesn't fancy it either, not even a mention of showers tonight. Just like Met Eireann.

Here's what I think, minus 10s crossing South Coast tonight will deliver! Let's wait and see.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585400#Comment_121585400

For tonight, Met E going for....'a few isolated showers may develop in the south, possibly wintry on hills'.  

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585403#Comment_121585403

Wintry on hills with minus 10 uppers!! Surely we can do better, but get your point at least it's mentioned now

JanuarySnowstor

Black ice all over Cork this morning, loads of crashes, see www.corksafetyalerts.ie

cot-mad

Thanks for your warning. Made me take extra care going to work.

Meteorite58

InAtFullBack posted the ICON charts over in +120hr FI thread but they actually fall under the Up to T120 and show wintry weather moving down on a Northerly airflow. Only an indication below, models will dial in better over the coming days but bound to be wintry, it will be a question of how far down the country it pushes, watching out for trough lines or any disturbances. Possible hail showers also and bits of rain and sleet perhaps, hard frosts at night will possibly lead to increased difficult driving conditions. A very cold week, don't let the oil run out!

Neddyusa

How's this Sunday storm looking on the models today?

adocholiday

@Neddyusa Tempered slightly since yesterday, taking a more northerly track it would seem but still some country-wide orange and wide spread red level gusts showing.

We're just coming into the reliable time frame now so hopefully those wind speeds will keep coming down as we get closer to the event, but that deep cold affecting North America and Canada will give this system plenty of energy. Drop of rain with this one too, different models showing up to 30-40mm for the 24 hour window but totals and locations differing significantly between them all at the moment.