Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Winter 2023/2024

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Autumn 2023 finished on a very chilly note after what was a mostly mild to warm season with plenty of rain. It is currently mostly dry across the country and very frosty so a very seasonal start to winter 2023/2024. It should remain mostly dry until mid week but showers across some coastal parts of the country cannot be ruled out and these could contain hail or sleet over the weekend, although many areas will stay dry throughout the weekend.

Temperatures between now and Tuesday not much higher than 4 or 5C.

From Wednesday rain and much milder air will sweep in from the west with temperatures quickly going back into double figures and it could become very windy as well.

Not much rain over the coming 5 days other than a few showers but the rain will be gathering right at the very end of this period.

Meteorite58

Entering a more unsettled spell of weather from later Tuesday, strong frontal winds and heavy rain on Weds, quite windy in the SW and along coastal areas, blustery overland. Models beggining to show a storm on Thursday, a few of them brining very strong winds into Ireland but not all in agreement yet on track or strength so a bit to go yet but leaning towards very strong winds and heavy rain with high totals showing up especially in the SW, S, SE higher ground in the E, parts of the W.

Edit: copied and moved post from wrong thread 😴

Meteorite58

A lot of energy out in the Atlantic over the weekend, some quick moving areas of LP about, GFS and UKMO showing one packing a punch moving near or over Ireland on Sunday, will see if anything comes of it.

Meteorite58

More models looking windy to very windy to stormy on Sunday, fast moving, goes past or through relatively quick. A bit to go yet to see if it holds its track and intensity but one to watch.

UKMO in steroids theses days, usually turns down the dial closer to the event.

Meteorite58

That's a stormy chart just out from ARPEGE, still a bit to go for more confidence with track and strength.

Meteorite58

ECM 12OZ throwing in a stormy Saturday now, small and very fast moving systems, track is everything.

This morning's UKMO HD run is fairly passive about tomorrow. Has the low further north instead of it tracking across Ulster.

Meteorite58

Very fast jet and Isobars tightening over Ireland increasingly so from Weds giving a breezy to blustery day more so towards evening and getting increasingly windy through Thursday countrywide, quite strong in coastal counties especially Northern, all associated with a Storm with a very large Wind Field which is set to form and move down past the the NW of Scotland , through the North sea and into Northern Europe. Looks like it could be named, could bring very strong winds to the UK and into the likes of Holland , Denmark and Germany.

Quite wet on Thursday, becoming increasingly cooler, chance of some wintry showers towards Fri in Northern counties, may not last long though as the weather could switch milder again.

WolfeEire

ICON has reverted from mild to cold again. ECMWF often quite similar to the ICON model so we will see what this evening's run brings. Comparison between latest run (top) and earlier run of the ICON (bottom) for lunchtime Christmas Eve. Such drastic changes from run to run.

The GEM and the GFS are a tad colder from the 233rd to 25th but it is a glancing blow of cold rather than anything overly wintry. Wintry showers for NW and N areas perhaps.

Overall, the fluctuations from run to run are utterly chaotic. What is consistent is a short cold snap and a raging jet stream over the north of the Ireland. This is reflected in the ensembles.

An example of the chaos can be seen in the GEM for the past two runs. The latest run is top showing a deep low barrelling toward us whereas the 00z was not showing anything of the kind.

WolfeEire

Overall, seasonal weather this Christmas weekend into Monday is favoured but the snow risk is low away from high ground in the north. There is plenty of scope 7 days out from the Big Day for colder/milder scenarios. Ireland is very much on the edge of the cold/mild airmasses for the period.

Gfs upgrade in the 00z in terms of cold potential for the weekend into early next week. 00z (top) compared to 18z (bottom). The mean temp would not be conducive to much wintry activity but there is a definite shift from a mild outcome. Current model output suggests Saturday into Christmas Eve the most likely time period for any colder airmass to begin impacting Ireland, lasting up to and including Christmas Day.

ECM is a tad cooler than the 12z as the latter was compared to the previous run. Average temps for the time of year on Christmas Day are forecast. Rather 'benign' as Met Éireann might say! Either way, it's not the blowtorch that was threatened 24 hours ago.

The Korean KMA keeps it cool/cold from Christmas Eve through to December 30th

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/kmae_cartes.php?ech=12&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

The Navgem is all rather fleeting and remains cool from the weekend beyond

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&mode=1

Icon 850s below

Gem has a two day cold snap with any wintry activity confined most likely to high ground and north Connacht and Ulster

The UKMO is not dissimilar to the GEM and downgrades the cold potential on previous runs. It's all rather fleeting

nacho libre

It's like a jigsaw puzzle ,but with one or two key pieces missing to complete it in trying to get proper cold here. With that Iberian high loitering all we are ever going to get is short term cold shots, there will always be enough shortwave energy out in the Atlantic to lock the high in and stop it migrating north or linking up with heights elsewhere. A cold North America is bad news for us, but a mild North America doesn't help much either. When do Met Eireann release their January long range forecast?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509794#Comment_121509794

Week 3 (Monday 01 January to Sunday 07 January)

Early indications are that the first week of 2024 will be rather unsettled with a mobile Atlantic regime pushing in showers and bands of precipitation at times. Precipitation totals are expected to be above normal nationwide. Mean air temperatures for the 7-day period are expected to be above normal but that does not preclude the chance of some colder incursions at times.

 

Week 4 (Monday 08 January to Sunday 14 January)

At Forecast Week 4, there is a weak trend towards a predominant northwest air-flow over Ireland. Precipitation totals are forecast to be slightly above normal whilst mean air temperatures will be close to or slightly above the January average.

 

­­­­SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH 2024 (JFM)

The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for average to slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be close to average.

While mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be approximately average overall, there is a high chance of cold outbreaks from the north and northeast over the three month period, leading to below average temperatures at times.

The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months leading to near average rainfall.

The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509825#Comment_121509825

Thanks for that WolfeEire. So some short polar maritime incursion for the first week of January. Hopefully temperatures will below average at time rather than normal or slightly above. It's very encouraging they mention a high chance of colder outbreak at this early stage, usually they'd be very cautious/ reserved.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509851#Comment_121509851

UKMO likewise @nacho libre

Monday 1 Jan - Monday 15 Jan

Most likely continuing unsettled with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the north and west. Short-lived colder spells remain possible, with hazards such as snow and ice, particularly in the north. The chance of these colder spells slightly increases moving through January, with a low likelihood of a more prolonged spell of cold weather developing around mid-month.

Meteorite58

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Think the few posts above are in the wrong thread, meant to be in the +120hrs FI thread I'm sure.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121510034#Comment_121510034

Sorry about that. Feel free to move them.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121510132#Comment_121510132

Not at all, done it myself😀

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509794#Comment_121509794

It's very disheartening isn't it, the ridiculous complex set of ingredients that need to be all aligned at the right time in the right place for us to have a chance of proper cold and snow. Ireland has to be up their in one of the toughest places in the northern hemisphere this far north to get snow, it's no wonder we end up in a bust or model wobble land most of the time.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121510438#Comment_121510438

With climate change in the mix it makes it all the more difficult. Now more then ever everything has to be so perfectly aligned.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509825#Comment_121509825

..

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121513638#Comment_121513638

Thanks for the excellent news and seasons greetings to you. I'll gladly take a warm turd over ice and snow, making it dangerous for the huge amounts of people who will be travelling over the Christmas period, by road and by foot.

Imagine being stuck at home for Christmas, melting snow for water as your pipes are frozen and being unable to travel to loved ones as the roads are trecharous due to snow and ice.

As much as I love a good snowfall, the negative impacts of it at Christmas far outweigh the positives.

Gonzo

We do seem nailed on now for a flat as a pancake relatively mild Atlantic Christmas period and all the uncertainty is now gone. This mild weather looks like it could last into the beginning of New Year as well. Next we wait for something to happen in January, hopefully we will start to see changes to something more interesting develop in the models next week.

zisdead

IMG-20231219-WA0000.jpg

You couldn't rule a line as straight for an Atlantic dominated west / east flow for Christmas eve on the GFS

WolfeEire

The Azores High is dictating all but I do not think the forecast is locked in yet. Based on current output, Christmas Day will not be dissimilar today if not a degree or two cooler. I would say with 6 days to go until Christmas Day there will be further changes in the positioning of that high. Its northerly position is being forced by two shortwaves emanating from its southwest and the troughing activity over Scandinavia. If the projected development of those three systems alters over the next days then so will the position of the high. We are on the border of two different airmasses so we could end up going much milder or much cooler.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121513814#Comment_121513814

Unfortunately this is the default setup for us almost every Christmas. Even in the 80s when we got generally much colder winters compared to now the wait for snow was nearly always after Christmas. Snow is more likely to fall in Ireland in April than it is in December etc etc. All hopes now pinned for January and February when cold spells can drag in the coldest upper air temperatures if we can get a direct hit unstable northerly or easterly. The prime time for cold spells in Irish winters is generally last week of December to about the middle of February. After valentines day the days start to become noticeably longer in the evenings and sun considerably stronger so snow melt quickly becomes more of an issue as we push on towards March. We can still get very cold weather in the first half of March but by this point snow melt/dripping will always be an issue even if the daytime air temperatures are around 0C. We had proof of this during Storm Emma where there was always dripping.

squonk

Dull and uneventful is fine. Lots will be travelling, lots will be away from their regular homes and many will be socialising so the absence of snow, ice, rain or wind is actually a good thing.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121513857#Comment_121513857

hu-ho NOW, therell be plenty of bland rain, dont you worry, plenty more bland uneventful rain will be falling.

That you can be assured of.

pauldry

Ya seems pretty uneventful for all Christmas. Just meh. But there might be hailstones Xmas eve.

adocholiday

I feel like Wicklow could go to an orange level wind warning tomorrow. The centre of the storm is passing into Sweden but the wind field is very significant with this one.

I assume it's a combination of the wind direction and Wicklow mountain orientation but the winds are looking much stronger here than anywhere else in the country. Looking at Met Eireann's hourly forecast it's showing stronger mean speeds and gusts than any recent storm we've had. All of the high res models showing widespread orange level gusts in the county tomorrow, and HARMONIE showing orange level mean wind speed too.

ascophyllum

Are those maps just a function of altitude? You regularly see them showing small blobs of 120+ just over the mountains in Kerry and Connemara when it's really just 90-100 at sea level.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517681#Comment_121517681

Usually that's the case yes, the ICON chart there would reflect the terrain layout in Wicklow. However anything more eastward than that generally is more sheltered. In this case we're seeing an enhancement of the wind on the eastern side, which is generally unusual.