FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

cyclops999

Carlow weather always sensible terminology none of the alarmist predictions and always refers to keep watching for ME updates.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks like a decent shout for falling snow on Thursday!! Uppers aren't great but thickness are with us in sub 528 air through Thursday and Friday. With ppn a plenty a few surprises should pop up. Nothing disruptive but falling snow is falling snow and it would be the first this season

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783170#Comment_121783170

The first for some places

pauldry

Also Saturday has a storm to the South and Cold Weather spilling down over most of the rest of the country but of course that's 162 hours away so subject to change big time probably to showers of rain and sleet from the Northwest.

WolfeEire

It sure will be colder with lots of instability from Wednesday night on. It looks like a horrible week's weather ahead. We move from warm rain to cold rain for most. Impossible to know at this stage if more wintry precip will cause any issues in the medium term but models are hinting at colder, less modified air later.

Gonzo

Not really looking forward to the cold weather as it will be mostly cold rain and wind. At his point I would rather the very mild temperatures continue and we start getting spells of high pressure in the Spring. We need several weeks of dry weather at the very least.

Hopefully we will get a major pattern change just as summer starts to a much dryer pattern like in 2021/2022.

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783875#Comment_121783875

Gonzo is there any sign of the weather drying up? Today is a lovely day but the ground is so so wet. The fields are like bogs and everywhere around the house is green from the constant rain.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121784212#Comment_121784212

More than four inches of rainfall forecast for higher ground in the southwest over the next week. Much smaller totals further north and east.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121784212#Comment_121784212

No sign of dry weather any time soon on the models. The unsettled and wet Atlantic dominance continues right into March.

JanuarySnowstor

Thickness is sub 528 throughout the weekend from Thursday on!! The mountains will certainly do well, but hopefully a bit lower down also. Uppers are not great so it's looking more rain/sleet for the majority...Worth watching though for upgrades

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121784466#Comment_121784466

Thats not good news as we approach sewing season. Especially after 2023 being absolutely dire for ground conditions.

PowerToWait

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121784466#Comment_121784466

I honestly can't remember a wetter 6 or 9 months. Seems it's been raining since before last summer, no let up, everywhere is sopping wet. Miserable as all fcuk.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121785651#Comment_121785651

We've been in a very wet pattern which started September 2022, it persisted all through the autumn then a weeks break beginning of December 2022 then back to the deluges for the rest of December and into early January 2023. February 2023 was the biggest dry spell and welcome break after so many months of wet weather. By end of February we were back into a very wet pattern which lead to a very wet March last year. It remained unsettled all the way to mid May and then we had some high pressure and a dry 2 weeks. Early June it became warmer but also wetter and a very wet June, July and August last summer. A washout of a summer. After some warmth and a dry week beginning of September we were then back into a very wet pattern which dominated second half of September and lasted all the way to end of December 2023. A washout of an autumn and early winter.

January and February this year while not overly wet, have still been fairly wet and with the land saturated for months on end it doesn't take much to create floods and pooling of water. As for the upcoming Spring I have a feeling it's going to be a wet one but hopefully a pattern change to prolonged dry spells as we enter summer. We cannot afford another washout summer after so much rain over the past year.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783170#Comment_121783170

What model do you look at for the 528 dam line JanuarySnowster? Thanks

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121785787#Comment_121785787

Yep, only Feb last year was dry, all the rest were average to above average. Surely things will even out at some stage this year.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121786105#Comment_121786105

Wetterzentrale gfs, and option mean cloud cover. As you can see below the light blue/green line is the 528 dam line and if its below Ireland it means where in sub 528 thickness. An important parameter for snowfall but obviously uppers are too!!

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121786137#Comment_121786137

We had a run of about 18 drier-than-normal months prior to that though.

A distant memory now of course!

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121786212#Comment_121786212

Thanks for that, been looking for an easy to read chart for this for a while!

pauldry

Doing OK for February in Sligo. Despite rain every day since God knows when it has only totalled to 48mm until tonight. But by next Sunday it could easily be 150mm total. Some very wet periods. Mild rain Mon Tues, cold rain Wed Thurs and more cold rain at weekend.

Also today was like a day borrowed from Spring. It seemed so strange to be dry and no wind. But it's lashing again now don't worry in case a 24hour drought happened.

Rebelbrowser

Real hints of proper cold from 28/29 Feb on the ECM and the 18z gfs especially

tiegan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121785787#Comment_121785787

Great summary @Gonzo and just as I remember it - I rolled my paddocks last week in Feb last year, we made hay end of May and first week of September. The only dry spells of 2023. This year can't be any worse - can it?

PowerToWait

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121785787#Comment_121785787

I hadn’t realised it was that long, but definitely feels like it. Can only improve I suppose.

pauldry

It can. But it eventually has to dry out. I'd imagine March April May might bring some dry weather so that it can be wet for the Summer again.

Sleet and Snow Forecast by Met Eireann for Thursday and Friday. Cue Galway Beo headline of Met Eireann pinpoint the exact day snow to hit ALL of Ireland(please please please click)

No one here really excited as itl just be wet mush.

nacho libre

Wednesday night might be the best chance to see falling snow, I wouldn't be confident of it sticking with the suggested temperatures. I can't see snow falling during the day on Thursday and Friday with the current progged temperatures in a westerly- cold rain or sleet more likely

typhoony

A good old fashioned Polar Maritime Westerly, showers from sleety rain to snow then back to sleety rain, great for viewing but thoroughly unpleasant type of weather to be outside.

Gonzo

The remainder of this winter and indeed February looks rotten, nuisance cold, plenty of rain, some hill sleet, wind and dark clouds. A winter I can't wait to see the back of and move on with absolutely everything.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121787950#Comment_121787950

Yes, it's rare that I am glad to see a winter ending but this winter is defintely one of them. I hope you are doing ok in these tough times for you.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121787992#Comment_121787992

Yeah things are getting easier now but I'd like to see an improvement in the weather take place over the next 2 months. All I want now from the weather is high pressure to dominate and temperatures to lift up. A chance to get back out into the garden and sit in a t-shirt having lunch outside, something that happened regularly during the covid Spring from mid March onwards.