FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Rebelbrowser

So the thread doesn't die out...

Asdfgh2020

there is talk in media about a ‘600 mile snow bomb’ arriving to us next week…..does this line up with what the models are showing and also is ‘snow bomb’ an actual meteorological term or a dumb amateur social media concocted one…?

Comhrá

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121773998#Comment_121773998

Are you sure it's Ireland you're referring to here? What media did you get that story from? Was it a UK tabloid by any chance?

highdef

Almost certain it's a tabloid type media outlet that is just click bait, to raise revenue through advertising on their website.

Billcarson

I saw that article a few days ago. Rsvp crap.

https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/ireland-weather-met-eireann-give-32108929

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121773998#Comment_121773998

I suspect you know the answer to that yourself!

Scarily I think they are talking about the weather on 22 / 23 Feb. A bomb is a term for a LP system that drops pressure rapidly (more than 24mb in 24h hours I think). We get about 15 of them a year I'd say. IF the system next week meets that criteria, it will have a chance of snow being attached as the upper temps are currently forecast as ca. -5/-6c, there will be a lot of convection and the thickness (I barely understand this stuff by the way) is also conducive to snow. So that's how they are coming up with the term "snow bomb". But no, it is not a meteorological term and its just tabloid nonsense. Snow would be very transient, mixed in with cold rain etc in all likelihood. Worth watching all the same, see below....

Billcarson

These media outlets don't help when it comes to people's beliefs in climate change. Seeing those bs articles on snow bombs etc no wonder people don't trust the media when it comes to climate change articles .

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121774991#Comment_121774991

Another thing annoys are the amount of people who think these are reports on what Met Eireann said!

You'll see comments like 'Met Eireann couldn't predict yesterday's weather' underneath getting 40 likes 😅

It's unbelievable how weather illiterate, and unaware of click bait, vast swathes of the population are.

I feel Met Eireann should come out more strongly in the media on this. February 2019 Evelyn Cusack v Cathal 'the hype merchant' from Ireland's Weather channel was the last time Met Eireann said anything.

Then the people I meet who say 'oh I never listen to Met Eireann only Carlow weather'. Firstly they don't realise he forecasts from the same models as Met E, with less access. Secondly he's one unqualified man, they've a team of qualified meteorologists. Thirdly a national broadcaster has to be more definite of its forecasts and just go out to 5 days. They don't have the liberty to go to 7-10 days. When an amateur gets one of these predictions right he/she's hailed as a hero! Oh lord they are much better than Met Eireann.

Now Carlow Weather is the best amateur forecaster, sensible, good experience, no hype.

Billcarson

I think there should be laws about media posting stupid rubbish weather articles. Any weather articles should be verified by professionals imo.

pauldry

Ya that low next week will bring a nasty day around Wednesday or Thursday, sleet, hail some snow in it and rain of course. Also wind gusts of over 100kph possible so bomb is the wrong term. Likely very windy possibly stormy day with mixed precipitation and some wintry falls especially on hills. Max temps around 3 to 7c.

WolfeEire

Following an extended period of milder than average conditions, our weather will turn colder from midweek next week. Bands of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow will be accompanied by strong west to northwest winds. Daytime temps of 5-7c. It will feel much colder in the stiff breeze.

WolfeEire

With 2 weeks of February remaining, a number of Met Éireann's synoptic stations have already exceeded Long Term Average (LTA) rainfall totals. Athenry 92.5mm (LTA 87.8mm), Dublin Airport 55.8mm (48.8mm), Gurteen 82.1mm (66.2mm). 4 others also exceeding the average monthly total. More rain to come.

Gonzo

Thanks everybody for the very kind words and support over the past week. Time for me now to move on and get back into talking about the weather! The coming week looks very mild and a slightly cooler trend for the final few days of February. The coming week to 10 days looks very wet indeed with plenty of rainfall. February is likely to finish up at least 2C above average in what has been another very mild overall winter.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121775946#Comment_121775946

Hey Gonzo. Welcome back. We are all glad to have you back on board(s). Thinking of you and the family.

Elmer Blooker

what could possibly go wrong?

I know there is less interest as it’s the beginning of March but as far as I’m concerned the Arctic is as cold at the beginning of March as it is at the beginning of February. I don’t go in for this ‘sun too strong in March’ stuff as just about every thaw I’ve ever seen has been caused by rising air temperature and not the sun.

The BFTE thaw set in before the sun even rose I remember (the night of March 2-3rd)

Eibhir

We need something like The Great West Country Blizzard (4 days in March) 1891 to rescue winter 🤭

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Blizzard-1891/

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121775105#Comment_121775105

So do I it's completely unacceptable

almostthere12

Based on the below, for my clickbait heading do you think I should go with "Snow bomb incoming" or "Messy slushy shitefest incoming".

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121776723#Comment_121776723

It's always a good sign when there is loads of precipitation forecast and it's expected to translate into trace levels of lying snow...

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121776860#Comment_121776860

I'll go with snow bomb so and then when it doesn't happen I can say if it was 2C colder we wouldn't have been able to open our doors!!

Even if we get an easterly later in the month, which is a long shot, it doesn't look like enough cold has built up to our east. All I am hoping for now is a few cold, crispy, frosty mornings!

Foggy Jew

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121773998#Comment_121773998

Yep. Saw this on Galway Beo earlier. Started making arrangements to alter next weekend’s plans, till I said to self ‘Cop on, Foggy Lad.It’s Galway Beo. Nuff said. As you were. FJ.

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778387#Comment_121778387

They are the worst weather click bait offender I've seen.

Asdfgh2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121776452#Comment_121776452

Was it the winter of 1962 when there was snow around until almost May…..and then the following winter the alpine areas of Europe had next to zero snow….? I think 1947 had a huge snow fall also that lasted for weeks.

Nearly Every year there is ‘click bait’ headlines in September/October predicting ‘snow-mageddons’……..and in the last 15 years they have come to fruition on three occasions ie winter of 2009/10, 2010/11 and feb/march 2018 (BFTE)…..prior to that the only major snow/cold periods that I can recall were 1991, 1987, 1982 and possibly 1978….? Not really much of a pattern there…..? With global warming I guess there is going to be less and less of long cold periods…?

Gonzo

The biggest difference I've noticed apart from the lack of snow is we do not get frost anymore except during cold spells/snaps. Every winter throughout the 80s had regular frost, both outside cold spells and in them. Windows freezing on the inside was a regular thing and frost persisting throughout the day in the shade would happen several times every winter. I've seen frost 4 times this winter, once was during the cool spell at the start of December and the other 3 times was during the cold snap just after new years. This winter is also up there with the PV of Doom winter for a total lack of snow, large parts of the country hasn't seen a single snow flake this winter.

This winter has thought me one valuable lesson and that is drivers mean absolutely nothing. Nearly everything promotes mild for us and if there is one driver that can be taken seriously it's the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. We've had a year of extremely warm sea surface temperatures which has resulted in an incredibly wet 12 month period to date and it's been so warm overall we've had rain easterlies and rain westerlies this winter, it's just been so utterly mild. The warm sea surface temperatures this winter has added at least 1C to most days throughout this winter.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121779546#Comment_121779546

I'm just 2kms from the sea in Arklow and have recorded 15 ground frosts in January 2024 alone and 5 air frosts

So it wasn't a mild month over all at all down here,quite the opposite actually

In February so far,we've had 6 ground frosts and 1 air frost

Gonzo

We probably had more than 4 frosts here in Meath but I wouldn't have been up early enough to see them.

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778764#Comment_121778764

1947 had the most snow. Reported snow in north facing quarries on high ground on early June in Ireland. Winter kicked off properly around 22 January. Heavy falls of snow and blizzards until snow turned to rain St. Patrick's Day.

1962-63 colder winter than 47, a lot of snow but not as much as 47.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121779696#Comment_121779696

I recorded 10 nights below 0C in January and 3 in December…….there were a couple of other nights that didn’t get down to 0C that had frosts as well in Nov and 1 I think in late October. For Feb have only had one night below 0C.

My location is south of Cork City only a few kms from the coast.

Asdfgh2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121781328#Comment_121781328

I’m not too far away from your location and close to coast also and I’d estimate I had had frost on windscreen at least 7 times before Christmas and probably a further 9/10 since….

also I’m sure there are plenty of us who remember the 2009/10 late November/dec snow and harsh temps….I recall a -7 deg C one am and nearly every morning in December I was clearing ice from windscreen then incredibly there was a repeat and possibly more severe cold/snow event in 2010/2011…where did these two extreme cold events come from? and from memory nobody expected /predicted them…? If the Gulf Stream’s / North Atlantic drift’s influence reduces as many experts predict then are we in store for more harsh winters with snow and ice as opposed to the miserable ‘mild wet and windy’ depressing stuff that we are all too used to…..low pressure system after low pressure system with south westerly winds and moisture laden clouds lashing us with rain etc

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121782298#Comment_121782298

I don't know where people get this idea that 2009-10 had severe cold through Nov/Dec, not the first time it has been said on here. That was late 2010 (during the 2010-11 winter). The cold in 2009-10 was primarily mid-Dec to mid-Jan with a particular focus on the first 10 days of January and was the longest cold spell since 1963. Then late 2010 featured two of the most intense cold spells ever seen on record in Ireland with all kinds of records smashed.

There's various possible factors during these winters.

1. Late 2010 was driven by an anomalous tripole pattern in the North Atlantic that is conducive to strong -NAO conditions. It just kept getting reinforced then until early February 2011 to a greater or lesser extent - January 2011 was also cold, especially in the west... contrary to the cold went away after NY 2011 belief but yes it was never as severe as late November or much of December 2010. Whilst there was also a tripole pattern in the North Atlantic during November 2009, according to the paper linked, it is unlikely to have had much effect during the 2009-10 winter but a large driver in the late 2010 period. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/142/2/mwr-d-13-00104.1.xml
2. This is something I learned relatively recent and that is December 2009 featured a polar vortex split in the lower stratosphere. Reanalysis below show this split in action - massive positive geopotential anomaly right in the heart of the Arctic down into the North Atlantic at 50hPa. This was likely a massive driver with the NAO and especially AO off the scale negative in the 2009-10 winter.

Similarly, late 2010 also featured a stratospheric polar vortex split in the lower stratosphere. This is in spite of the upper stratosphere featuring an average to active stratospheric polar vortex over the North Pole. This likely played a part too in my view as much as the tripole pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The Met have also stated this before about late 2010:

"Although not a full SSW, there were warmings in November and December and a split polar vortex which delayed it strengthening into its typical winter mode."

And there's the split they mention, in the lower stratosphere.