FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

Follows exactly what the ECM extended is showing. CFS showing Atlantic dominance as well from next Tuesday for rest of December. Since we are currently still in November this is completely unreliable but it is what we end up with most of the time.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429799#Comment_121429799

It follows exactly what the extended EC (EC46) is showing because that's all those long range forecasts are. They just put the EC46 charts into words. Doesn't add anything to what we don't already know.

esposito

Really hope they are wrong. My Christmas Day prediction of 14/15c might come true after all. Nobody (well none of us coldies) wants a repeat of last winter where we had a cold early to mid December and then that was it after that.

sryanbruen

The Atlantic is unleashed on the ECM by mid-week next week. It does try to develop into a Scandi high with the WAA going north but there's just too much energy in the North Atlantic for that to happen. The lows get stuck over us rather than heading east as a result.

WolfeEire

Ecm

op run also an outlier in last few days of run

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

Is this new that met eirrean are doing this, never knew this was available

pauldry

Looking at temperatures in Greenland now above zero in November in some places I fear we may never get a prolonged cold spell again.

The whole bloody world is too warm. We may get a few snowy days here and there but I'd say there's more chance of record high temperatures in December than anything remotely cold bar the first few days.

Maybe the cold can hang on but the mild dominates worldwide now especially on our side. Asia maybe not so much but even Siberia has seen record warmth in November.

I'd say Christmas Day will be 12 to 14c. It's inevitable really isn't it. What we don't want we get.

In short the forecast looks cold till next Wednesday....then mild till Jan 2024. Most prob don't want any more storms either.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431055#Comment_121431055

Been doing it for the past year, at least that's when I first came across it. Updates Tuesday and Friday evenings.

WolfeEire

Models signalling lots of energy out in the Atlantic and as @sryanbruen pointed out earlier, the charts at 240hrs position NW Europe in a buffer zone between mild and cold air masses. Based on the NAO Index being a relatively neutral state come then, I think what is signalled presently for ten days time may be on the extreme end of what is likely to materialise.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431363#Comment_121431363

Lovely thank you 😊

icesnowfrost

If that is to be believed it’s some difference in temperature from the end of next week. Don’t think the models have it nailed down just yet. From cold to very mild 🥶🥵

Meteorite58

Models coming more in line to showing a switch to quite wet and windy weather from around the middle of next week. ECM less cold but still not mild, GFS that bit milder. Perhaps gales at times or stronger.

Billcarson

With the return of our normal weather next week, one positive is it gives us time for things to hopefully turn back in our favour for Christmas. I would love a cold last week of December. I'd like it to stay cold all the way through for the next few weeks but that would be unrealistic.

Hooter23

We are in the best position when the cold from the east and atlantic weather collide...it does not happen that often but when it does ireland & the uk can get the worst of the weather from it...the jetstream still shows that there is still just as much chance of the atlantic weather sliding to the south of us at times...we will see sure

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431707#Comment_121431707

Thinking the same. What I’d give for a cold final week of December and into the new year! We are long overdue it.

Hoping the proper cold in Scandi and Eastern Europe does not get wiped away from the mild coming in next week. We need that in place for further down the line…

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

They base that on the ECM 46, which is showing it zonal till January, so no surprise there. You can't dismiss it outright as it would tie in with what should happen in an El Nino winter, but the EC46 as I mentioned can flip from one outlook to another. The worrying sign for me is the Azore high in its usual spot.

pauldry

GFS showing a lot of storms now. Might be more names used in December. Dominant Atlantic means any snow in December would be melted fast. Very mobile looking charts on latest.

Seems unresolved but if they have any doubt I'm sure theyl just place the Azores high with Southwesterlies by us. This is what we get 60 percent of the time.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431916#Comment_121431916

The cold in Scandi could be key going forward. Lot of cold that built up there over the last few weeks, we need that to remain.

Gonzo

If we lose that cold pool in Scandi we lose everything as we would have nothing to tap into. Very important that stays there throughout the winter. As for us it now looks most likely the Atlantic will be dominating again from next Tuesday/Wednesday in what probably will end up in another mild run up to Christmas. However there are still some outliers going for cold and snow around mid December but they have very little support. Fingers crossed we can get an SSW going properly end of December or early January to give us hope for the period end of December to Valentines Day, the all important prime time to tap into proper cold and snow.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432261#Comment_121432261

I'd be very surprised if it'll be "very mobile" or full on zonal. Looks more like an active Atlantic coming up against blocking similar to mid-October. These kinds of setups can dump tons of rain especially to the south of the country. Think back to Storm Babet. Sorry Corkians, I know that's not what you wanted to hear 😒

It's reminding me a lot of December 1978 which had a very active Atlantic come up against blocking. The blocking was never in a favourable position for us until the end of the month when the easterly winds came roaring in for the New Year. It was an exceptionally wet month here in the east with regular spells of rain. Remains the only time Dublin Airport has had a month with 200mm+.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432474#Comment_121432474

Well the one consolation is this cold spell was a bit of outlier when it was initially shown, not within the GFS, but across the models there wasn't much support for it. We have got to hope the Canadian Warming begins to have an impact after the 8th of December on output. So hopefully those outliers gain more support after that. If not, like you say, let's hope for a memorable cold spell sometime during peak winter.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432646#Comment_121432646

Agree with this. GFS does not show any significant 'warm-up'. In fact, it stays cool throughout the 14-day window. Most of the 30 perturbations show this. ECM and GEM the same. Will be keeping an eye out for what happens 10-14 days down the line in output over the next few days

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432646#Comment_121432646

There was a lot of snow later that winter though,early 1979

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121433139#Comment_121433139

Precisely, from the roaring easterlies that I mention during the New Year. However, there was a lot of rain to get through before that and with warmer sea temperatures compared to then if we do see the similar pattern..

November surprised me mind with the first half being one of the most cyclonic on record in terms of anomaly but the main rain bands stayed to our south into Brittany and Normandy.

WolfeEire

It is certainly going to turn less cold from Tuesday into Thursday next week but I would be highly doubtful we will see the 12-14c temps suggested on earlier guidance. Looking at the GFS perturbations from the 12z up to Tuesday and many are going with a much weaker push from the Atlantic. That massive cold block over Europe, particularly Nordic countries, is putting up resistance and in some cases holds back the milder air beyond midweek from east/north Ireland and Britain. GFS has a tendency to track low pressure systems further north than their eventual position and also discounts the strength of Scandi highs. Would expect the ensembles to show a trend toward a delayed return to less cold conditions. What I think may happen is that milder will encroach on the western and southern regions of the country by Tuesday into Wednesday and end up in a buffer zone between a low pressure to our west, highs to our northwest, north and northeast. A good share of the perturbations suggest the below or variation of.

The less rapid "warm-up" is reflected in the ensembles for the next 192 hours, which features a lot more cold members than the previous run. The 12z is top and 06z is bottom.

Gonzo

GFS 12z second day in a row with a complete outlier only this time the other end of the scale. The return to mild is starting to look a bit on the temporary side with more colder members appearing for the mid December period and snow spikes coming back, will see over next few days if this gains further momentum.

Overall a huge range of scatter from December 7th with just about every scenario on the table.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121433880#Comment_121433880

A few more colder members added to the 12z Ecm compared to the 0z. Turning less cold for sure but nothing too mild for now.

WolfeEire

Gfs for Tuesday. Heights building all the time. The problem is the Azores high! That said, the battle of the air masses is on for nw Europe.

WolfeEire

The CFS is definitely the best computer model......😛

Pure 👁️ 🍭 and also pure fantasy

icesnowfrost

GFS-Looks like a few wind events trying to come in next week and week after with the later pulling in some cold east northeast winds but it extremely unreliable at this stage.

cold rain overnight and only a few miles from me there’s snow cover in collon. It’s a cruel world 🥶❄️😂