FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

hope your wrong pauldry IF we don't get at least a 2 to 3 day proper snowy spell this winter I think all hope is lost for Irish winters, we are well overdue one by this stage and it doesn't have to be a December 2010. A February 2009 but in late December or January would be perfect.

Getting back to the current models the GFS holds onto the low level cold until about Tuesday of next week. After that it tries to bring the Atlantic back in but it looks a bit flimsy and nothing terribly mild on the horizon. Wouldn't take much to bring in another reload of cold.

Icon 12z says no to bringing back the Atlantic and we have a diving low on Monday/Tuesday keeping things here fairly chilly.

We may have a bit of a battleground next week with mild from the west/south-west trying to win out while the cool/cold air over us tries to cling on. At this stage i'm not convinced of a return to mild after this weekend. We may need another few days to see where we go after this weekend.

UKMO certainly making it cold for this weekend and early next week with temperatures down to -7C by night in places. Certainly not seeing this level of cold on the other models.

Latest UKV also ramps up the cold for us from Wednesday night with widespread -6 to -7 uppers across the country, almost cold enough for snow to low levels. Just a pity there will be very little precipitation around for this cold spell.

We won't be sitting out in the garden sipping cocktails in our shorts and tshirts come Friday/Saturday.

If this entire spell happened in about 2 weeks time it would have made a big difference, this spell is just a bit too early. Getting snow to low levels end of November is like trying to get lying snow end of March, it's going to be marginal the majority of the time. This is a bit like the reverse of March in that as each week progresses we are in a much better position if we hit the jackpot.

However none of this makes a difference when the last 3 to 4 cold spells we've had over the past few winters have had little to no precipitation for most areas.

most models showing this from mid week next week. Mark Vogan predicted the mild/Atlantic would return fairly quickly by 2nd week of December due to the MJO. I don't fully understand how it works but know that it can greatly affect our weather with high pressures during the summer and deluge patterns etc.

Latest ECM long range also showing mild and Atlantic back in business from later next week with the remainder of December looking very Atlantic dominated and very mild. I feel we all knew this would happen as the run up to Christmas is almost guaranteed to be very mild here year on year.

Let's hope this isn't a repeat of Winter 2022/2023 where the opening week of December was winter and the rest of the winter was a write off. I am feeling a bit more hopeful about this winter that this dry cold spell isn't the last cold spell we'll see this winter, and that the next cold spell will be a properly cold and unstable one!. We could end up with a very mixed winter with mild and cold spells alternating.

That GFS 12z has to be very much an outlier with barely any support but interesting that it is a possible scenario that could develop over the coming 10 days. It's the sort of thing I want to see in the next cold spell.