FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
The way I see it is the charts past few days are a tease, we hit a high point on Tuesday, charts were fairly underwhelming yesterday but much more down to earth and realistic. It's still only November and the seas around us are very warm compared to what they would be in January etc. It does look like things will become cooler over the next 2 weeks but any cooling will be greatly modified due to our geography and the fact winter doesn't start for another week. I am hoping that what we have seen over the past few days is a tease, we may go back to mild Atlantic weather after the 1st week of December but when the time is right I am hoping we see a proper cold spell with fun and games end of December and into January.
What is encouraging right now is it's only November and already there is talk of sleet, snow, ice, frost etc and the continent is cooling down very quickly so early into the season.
Serious cold already well into Scandinavia and eastern Europe, this is something we don't usually see till mid way through December or possibly later.
If we can keep that cold pool going through December and into January, if and when we do get a proper easterly later in the winter, the depth of cold we could tap into by mid January would be fairly impressive considering the depth of cold is already impressive given that it's only November.
Back to this mornings GFS and we are still on course for about a week of chilly weather and not much in the way of precipitation. There is a definite warming trend towards the end of week 1 of December with the Atlantic making a possible comeback. I hope this is only a taste of what's to come further down the line into winter.
Some of the GFS members do give a slight snow risk mainly in the form of showers.
12 -
-
-
We still have some evolution to go through yet on this in the next couple of days but the path to noticeable cold has become a lot clearer.
This afternoon's ICON for example showing the type of evolution I'd be looking for by day 5 with the shortwave in the Greenland/Iceland Corridor dropping south and phasing with the low pressure just off Iberia. This would drag in the much colder air from the east.
The forecasting of this on the models can be fragile but I'm quietly confident we'll get a big change in our weather in the next 6 - 10 days.
There are varieties of the same evolution across the models some colder than others.
30 -
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
Over a numer of days now the ECM and other models are definetly building the colder trend. E to NW to N as we go into next weekend after a gradual cooling down next week and seeing a few disturbances in the mix also with some breezy days and possibly a bit windy on the coasts from time to time. Going to be hearing about windchill again soon by the looks of it as the Northerly airflow gets established. Looking more likely that by the end of the week seeing temperatures slow to climb into the low single digits after some areas getting a fairly hard frost. A bit of white on mountains quite possible, will be seeing closer to the time the chance of wintry precipitation to lower levels. Eastern Europe and Northern Europe looks like seeing increasing snow cover over the coming week, all the better for coling down any Easterly winds over such a long land fetch. Wouldent be surprised to seeing Northern counties with white mountains over next weekend and maybe a bit down to lower levels if we keep seeing charts like tonights.
Great to see the drier weather of late continuing out to +240hrs, precipitaion definetly at times but a lot less than we have seen for the last couple of months.
22 -
-
-
Ecm decent enough for later next week. All model ensembles favouring a slow return to less cold conditions the following week. ECM clusters signal a move toward a more Atlantic influence from 10 days time (bottom image).
Plenty of variables at play between now and then to be even certain what is to come in 5-7 days time. Met forecast for Wed-Fri period suggesting ❄️ for some perhaps
www.x.com/wolfeeire
4 -
-
-
Yes. It all comes down to that mid week low really. In the UKMO it is a little further south and pulls in the colder air behind it, while on other output the low stalls over Ireland and Britain and little shortwave features appear to our north and west, staving off any push of colder air. By Thursday,the UKMO sets up a longer cold spell. Unsurprisingly, based on the UKMO, the UK Met Office says the UK will experience cold conditions up to and including Dec 9th.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast
www.x.com/wolfeeire
8 -
-
Gfs mean is bringing the midweek low further south so the op run isn't going off on one. This has resulted in a much colder run.
The beginning of the following week has other systems tracking further south on the op run. These slider lows could lead to wintry falls on their northern edge. Ultimately, the midweek low will dictate the longevity and severity of the upcoming colder spell of weather.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
10 -
Advertisement
-
