Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March
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As mentioned, there is a ice / snow warning for the SW on MET E for tonight:-
"Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Cork, Kerry
- Met Éireann Weather Warning
- Patchy sleet or snow overnight and Wednesday morning. Potential for hazardous conditions on some roads and footpaths.
- Valid: 00:00 Wednesday 08/03/2023 to 12:00 Wednesday 08/03/2023
- Issued: 10:58 Tuesday 07/03/2023..."
It looks like a possible rain to snow to rain event but on some charts there could be a reasonably decent amount of snow in some parts around until, say, mid morning (with rush hour thus potentially affected). I'm posting a chart from Aperge, simply because it as the one that best called last night (it never really showed much chance of snow last night, others did). This is half interesting if snow is your thang and you are in Cork or Kerry. Obviously higher ground and inland are better favoured but.....
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UKV high res snow models showing this will be mainly a high ground and Donegal/Northern Ireland event. High ground areas could see several feet of snow etc.
Low lying areas away from Donegal doesn't really show up on these charts due to the probably very temporary nature of settling snow.
Thursday will see Temperatures back into double figures across much of Leinster and Munster so anything that falls here will be just rain.
North of Galway city to Newry looks like where the snow will be which is identical to what MT is forecasting.
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Meteorologist's Commentary
Cold spell commencing 6th of March 2023
Updated 12.45pm Tuesday 7th March 2023
The uncertainties surrounding the forecast for Thursday the 9th of March are keenly illustrated on the chart below. The image demonstrates the probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow based on a forecast from Met Éireann’s high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS. The darker the colour, the more certain the forecast is for that precipitation type to fall.
Probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow at 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March from a model forecast on Tuesday the 7th of March.
The snapshot shown is the forecast for 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March, as of the morning of the 7th of March. Focusing on the “Rain”, “Sleet” and “Snow” panels, the transformation of the precipitation as it moves northwards across the country is evident, with the precipitation almost certain to fall as rain in the somewhat milder air to the south, becoming sleet through north Munster and into the midlands and a very high likelihood of snow in north Leinster and Ulster.
According to Dr. Alan Hally, Forecasting Services Manager at Met Éireann, “Our high-resolution ensemble prediction system is specifically designed to represent the uncertainties related to these types of events. In Ireland, the occurrence of snow is almost always a marginal event, and our forecasters rely heavily on ensemble prediction systems in order to determine the most likely outcome and to decide on appropriate and timely warnings”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland, go to http://www.met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page.
Issued at 6pm Monday 6th March 2023
Much colder this week as a northerly airflow moves over the country introducing sharp to severe frosts at night and icy patches with some snow in the forecast.
A cold front sinks southward across Ireland on Monday evening (March 6th) introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Ice warning for tonight (Monday 6th of March) as temperatures drop to freezing countrywide.
According to Forecaster Gerry Murphy “For Monday night temperatures will fall to between -4 to 0 degrees leading to a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches, especially over the northern half of the country. Further south, outbreaks of rain will turn to sleet or snow for a time overnight in Munster leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions. A cold bright day on Tuesday will be followed by a very cold night on Tuesday night with widespread frost and some icy stretches. Outbreaks of sleet or snow may develop late in the night in Cork and Kerry”.
Airmass for Tuesday 7th March – Thursday the 9th of Marth showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from midweek onwards, with some model runs bringing the boundary between the cold polar airmass and the milder tropical airmass northwards over the country, which could bring a spell of snow for a time ahead of the milder air. The extent of this event and its impacts will become more evident by midweek, at which time further warnings will be issued if necessary.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
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@squarecircles , thanks for that article on the Irish high Resolution EPS. Very interesting. For the snow probability shown in the graphic, I can clearly see that is taking into account topographical features with high chances of snow in the hills nearly Oldcastle (Meath), Corn Hill (Longford) and moderate chances around the area of moderately high ground (in comparison with the widespread surrounding areas) roughly between Edgeworthstown and Longford town in County Longford. I hope to be down at the house that's located within that last area mentioned during the event so I will be able to give first hand reports as to how well the forecast has gone.
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Both GFS and UKMO trended south this morning with the trajectory of Thursday's LP which is good news for coldies. ECM is closest for widespread disruptive snowfall. For Dubs if we want max potential we need this sort of track a pinch further south.
Several attempts to bring in milder Atlantic air over the next few days.
The trend is good right now.
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An upland spell of snow in Munster tonight is now pretty certain.
For tomorrow into Thursday and Friday, the situation south of this line is a total lottery and don't let anyone tell you different.
It will be a nowcast. Lamppost watchers, buy the cocoa and clean your windows.
Snow will be dependent on dew points, cold air undercut, time of day, solar energy penetration through the upper and then lower cloud bases and lots more.
North of that line, an upland snow event is also pretty certain at +36/+48 but lower and coastal snow is also marginal, but less so than south of the line.
But sure isn't that the fun that brings us here.
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