FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

John.Icy

After a few days of teasing of the upcoming high pressure to try nudge north, we finally have an operational of the big 3 making a proper move NW with the high (sorry GFS you've been demoted).

This is the kind of evolution we want if you're after a deep cold and snowy spell IMO. Absolutely no cold out east to be dreaming of easterlies at this point in time - you'd need synoptics in place for an age. The above is rather similar to December in a way, so could end up poor in terms of snow, but much deeper cold drops south in this run and in reality we just got really unlucky in December that we got stuck in no mans land with no instability in addition to the lack of deep cold.

Gonzo

Cant Forecast Snow is also making an attempt at a cold spell around a similar time frame, end of January/beginning of February but is nowhere as wintry looking as the GEM which I suspect will be a total outlier. IF the GEM did verify It would probably be another dry one but it would be very cold indeed with temperatures into the negative double digits by nighttime.

The problem with the 1st cold spell we had was it was too early within the 1st week of winter and no instability. The problem with the current cold snap is too much modification from the Atlantic so everything was rather marginal.

The GEM above would be a different beast entirely in terms of cold if it was to happen and the Atlantic would be properly shut out.

nacho libre

It's kind of funny how we were banging on about heights over Europe putting pay to any colder weather, well now that we have lost them it seems to be much energy in the Northern arm of the jet is the next obstacle to overcome, that why I think the GEM solution is unlikely. I hope I am wrong. The ECM charts could lead to a cold snap with the high going west. We could get a brief Northerly before it flattens out again.

almostthere12

Not the right thread but probably get lost in the winter one............is there anywhere you can track the current 850 temp and not just the most recent frame on the models? Thanks

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120126662#Comment_120126662

This winter is beginning to feel like a lose-lose scenario for anything significant to me. At the moment, there is too much westerly momentum for the projected high to reach a sufficiently northerly latitude. The most likely scenario of the expected weakening of the SPV as of now is for it to be pushed towards Scandinavia. Even though the weakening of the vortex should reduce westerly momentum, the corresponding area of high pressure should develop somewhere over Western Canada or Alaska, which is a terrible position for an anticyclone to develop for us. This would send a cold plunge down towards the United States, which could invigorate the jet stream. My guess at the moment is that in the long term, we may see something similar to the Christmas period of 2022, where a trough somewhere to our northeast will try to bring down a northerly (which may make inroads into Northern Scotland) but without a supporting high blocking off the Atlantic or pushing the jet stream south, we will be at the mercy of the Atlantic, winds perhaps swinging to the northwest at times. The United States, of course, had that severe cold snap around Christmas too. We really did need the vortex to split or at least be displaced to somewhere better.

LaoisWeather

That 12Z GEM run today was a peach. It handled the December cold spell reasonably well too I think.

Elmer Blooker

if we cant get our high to build north when the NH is in this relatively weak and disorganized state then all hope is lost for ‘winters’ as we knew them.

We are now in a warm phase such as the Medieval Warm Period which ended c1300 with the onset of the Little Ice Age.

nacho libre

The thing is if we do get a ssw or something close to one, we could get a brief westerly push due to downwelling before the consequences arising from the warming were seen in the trop'. So that ECM chart could be realistic enough in that regard. The GEM chart might be what happens a week or two later. Also the set of charts you posted for February 1891 demonstrates that making these kinds of dire conclusions is flawed.

nacho libre

The GFS has been on the Sherry. If this did happen this would be a very quick response to the warming in the strat. I am not going to look past this chart because knowing our luck it will probably all collapse on the next frame.

WolfeEire

The GFS is trending a little cooler beyond day 8-9. 18z (top) compared to the 0z

There is also a trend to pressure dropping from day 8-9. All rather unremarkable for the time of year but the dry spell will be very much welcomed. Looking at the AO and NAO a return to cool and less settled conditions for the opening days of February is indicated.

nacho libre

Yes, it would seem a return to unsettled conditions into February is quite likely now based on this morning runs.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120132870#Comment_120132870

PV getting its act together by the look of it this morning, it seems that extreme cold in N. America is NOT required then as it hasn’t been particularly cold there since the pre Xmas big freeze.

This will have to be noted in future that extreme cold in N. America is not an excuse for our crap winters.

Gonzo

Looks like we may get till about February 2nd out of this much welcomed and needed dry spell and after that we return to the conveyer belt. Let's hope a possible SSW does something to stop the onslaught by mid February and powers down the machine for a couple of weeks.

Gonzo

GFS 6z looks potentially stormy for first week of February. Mild and very unsettled with the Atlantic stepping on the gas big time.

The AO may also become moderately positive for the first time this winter, not a good sign at all. NAO also set to become positive once again for early February. (Can't link either here as they keep timing out).

Another deep area of low pressure moving out of Canada with our name on it.

nacho libre

I feared the worst when the UKMO long range was bullish about a return to unsettled conditions. They do it get it wrong sometimes, but they are right more often than not. I remain hopeful that by Mid February we may see a change due to the weakened strat and the mjo being in a phase favourable to blocking. If it must be unsettled i hope we can get a named storm out of at least.

Billcarson

It's nearly always the same story regarding the likes of next week's high pressure that will be over us. Very rarely will they move into a position to allow a cold spell. Not surprising to see it sink with time and allow the Atlantic back in........

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120133963#Comment_120133963

Ye very predictable that the high over us would sink. It’s frustrating as the high sits over us for days wasting winter away and then the unsettled weather comes after in early February. This is still a good bit out into FI though so things could change more favourably but wouldn’t be too optimistic.

Gonzo

After a few cold days temperatures have now recovered and we're back into mild weather. It is also much dryer than it has been through most of the winter with a mild and dry 2 week period to come. Very little in the way of rainfall until the beginning of February. Good opportunities to get outside after been stuck inside for the past 4 months looking out at the rain.

There is a slight cooling trend towards the end of the GFS but nothing to get excited over. It is likely we will start to turn more unsettled as we head into February with the Atlantic stepping on the gas.

Chris_5339762

I hope it does become drier again... we're on Day 2 of 3 with utterly relentless drizzle here in Cork. Everything is saturated.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138049#Comment_120138049

Definitely make the most of this dry spell since we haven't had many dry interludes since the end of summer and the dry weather is unlikely to last more than a day or 2 into February.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138072#Comment_120138072

We had a dry spell in December when Dublin saw snow and other places had very hard frosts with some ice days

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138305#Comment_120138305

That's the only true almost nationwide dry spell we've had since September 2nd and now we are into another one, except this one should last a bit longer than the one in December.

Chris_5339762

The outisde of my window in Cork would definitely suggest that this dry spell is not nationwide! Its been heavy drizzle for the past two days and more to come tomorrow. It's impossible to go out in it, its absolutely vile.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138845#Comment_120138845

The outlook doesn’t sound too dry either. Rain every day for the West and North West. Mild, overcast and damp for the week ahead in the w and nw.

Overcast tonight with scattered outbreaks of rain extending eastwards to all areas before morning.

Dull and damp at first tomorrow with scattered outbreaks of rain. The outbreaks of rain and some mist patches will linger in many areas throughout the day.

Monday- Mostly cloudy with a good deal of dry weather though further scattered outbreaks of rain and drizzle will occur, mainly in the northwest.

Monday night - Continuing overcast with outbreaks of rain and drizzle

Tuesday: Outbreaks of light rain and drizzle, most frequent in the northwest. More persistent rain will push into the north and west towards morning

Wednesday: Rain in the north and west will gradually track southeastwards through the morning and early afternoon with some sunny spells and showers following.

Further Outlook: Changeable with some rain and showers at times, interspaced with good dry intervals.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138801#Comment_120138801

It's raining in Trim, Meath at the moment. Not heavy, mind you but that combined with the cold breeze and high humidity is making it feel very miserable. That was fifteen minutes and it had been my first time outside today.

Gonzo

The next 10 days will be relatively dry across most parts of Ireland, but not completely 100% dry. Compared to what we've been used to over the past couple of months this is a much dryer signal than the daily deluges since we've been in an Atlantic onslaught for the majority of the time since early September.

Rainfall predictions for the next 10 days look low for the majority of the country roughly coming in at under 5mm. This is most welcome. The north-west and western fringes are always going to be wetter than the rest of the country., but even there the next 10 days won't be as wet as the deluge spells of recent times.

However around the 1st/2nd of February it looks like we will flip back into a very wet and Atlantic dominated pattern.

sryanbruen

Jeez, that GFS 12z shows a 915mb low south of Iceland by 3rd February. This run has gone a bit off the rails with just how stormy it is. Makes me wonder though if this would be the effect from having the PV displaced to Greenland via what's expected in the stratosphere.

LaoisWeather

In the far reaches of FI on today's 12Z run a brisk straight line north-westerly brings in cold air from Western Greenland:

It lasts all the weekend of the 4th-5th and into Bank Holiday Monday 6th:

Many parts of the country would see lying snow from this set up:

as frequent showers stream in from the west.

Afternoon temperatures on BH Monday 6th barely above 0c.

But the windchill would be fair cold!

sryanbruen

Operational vs control on 2nd February. This is why it's called FI! They couldn't be more different. Probably almost a synoptic outlier though.

EDIT: Ensemble mean says yes, almost certainly an outlier with much higher pressure over Europe and no blocking to the north.

Robwindstorm

Jeez is right, that would be some churned up Atlantic if the GFS was right