FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Was the GFS control part of the upgrade? I am just hoping it's on to something. Although it's the ensembles that usually lead the way in sniffing out a new trend.

Gonzo

The control and operational are cold outliers towards the end of their runs. Overall the signal is relatively dry till February 1st and after that we become progressively more unsettled as we enter the 1st week of February. Staying mild generally from start to finish with cooler periods still relatively mild.

The majority keep uppers between +4 and -4C, not much support here for cold.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139744#Comment_120139744

This 'drying out high pressure' has so far produced a lot of drizzly muck here. Worth noting that high pressure in January (without an Easterly wind) often produces anticyclonic gloom and plenty drizzle. A depressing weather setup that almost nobody looks for.

You mentioned a dry Northerly last week yet snow fell from Sligo to West Cork, disruptive stuff that closed schools! I see you are writing off early February which is your opinion and entitled to it. But can we all check in to see who's right around 1st Feb. Because for me changes are already afoot and by early February I predict serious cold on the horizon!

nacho libre

Just on that monster low on the GFS Op, was there a low of 912 mb back in the early 90s?

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139895#Comment_120139895

I like your optimism, but until the UKMO are on boards I am not buying it. They were unusually bullish about a return to unsettled weather which is a great concern to me. I will be more than happy for you to say I told you so, If we do see a dramatic swing to deep cold in early February!

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139944#Comment_120139944

Ian ferguson(one of the Met team in uk) tweeted that a major SSW can't be ruled out as we go forward! For me the correct annology is that anything can happen by early Feb but 1 Thing is certain, changes are afoot!!

I'll miss this high pressure in situ allowing the ground to dry out, oh wait it's drizzly everyday and there's no drying! Forgot its Jan

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139927#Comment_120139927

The Braer storm of January 1993 which got down to 914 mb.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139895#Comment_120139895

I have never written off February. The first week maybe but after that anything is possible. I've always been saying looking at second half of February for the cold and hopefully snow. True the North-west did well last week and parts of the midlands but it's also true many eastern and southern areas away from the south-west saw very little if any precipitation during the cold spell. and this was well needed.

I was very happy with things drying out in my area over the past week because I had a serious water issue with runoff from a waterlogged field behind my house, all the standing water in my back garden caused by the water constantly leaking into the garden froze and there is still ice left over it froze so much.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139962#Comment_120139962

Just to be clear, I think we may well get a colder turn, but I think we are going to have to wait till mid February onwards. The GFS Op in fI does show, despite a vortex of doom, heights to the north east, which could lead to wave 2 warming type event. If we do happen to get a split eventually, it could be dramatic as Amy Butler highlighted.

.Donegal.

Pointless to post this as it’s 384hr but not much happening. Some storm.

esposito

Ireland where are you?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144668#Comment_120144668

Ireland buried deep and lost in a winter full of Atlantic muck.

nacho libre

It will be unsettled but maybe cold at times after systems pass through. Good enough maybe for wet snow in places.

JanuarySnowstor

At least some weather will be happening. If it can't be cold cheer us up with a few violent storms!!!

Only joking of course 😉

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144668#Comment_120144668

I think that would be the worst storm since darwin or the night of the big wind, that's if it where to verify

WolfeEire

The models are as dull as you could get in winter 120hrs+. That high pressure system to our south shuts off any opportunity for Ireland to tap into colder air to our north, west and east, leaving us in a predominantly milder airmass. Only the JMA hints at anything colder with the high regressing south for a time. JMA is definitely the best model ..

Gonzo

Grim stuff indeed for cold and snow lovers. Just taking a look at this mornings models and it doesn't get much worse than this. MILD followed by very MILD, potentially warm for the time of the year with temperatures up to 15C entirely possible. Long Fetch south-westerlies with plenty of mist of drizzle over the next few weeks. In this sort of setup some eastern areas if there were spells of sunshine and a Fohn affect temperatures of 16C wouldn't be out of question. The cold zonality signal that we had up to a few days ago seems to be completely off the table at this stage.

We stay largely dry in terms of heavy rainfall untill the end of 1st week of February but plenty of misty Atlantic air will keep the ground generally damp over the next few weeks. Temperatures lifting up and taking off as we progress into the 1st week of February with a long push of very mild south-westerlies.

We finish up on February 10th with a blowtorch still going over us.

I think this is a very good time for another model watch break.

ECM maybe not quite as mild as the GFS but still flat as a pancake and about as exciting as watching paint dry.

Sums up the majority of Winter 2022/2023 with the exception of the cold spell in December.

However in the past week FI has flipped from mild and stormy to cool and slightly wintry and now exceptionally mild. It is entirely possible this could flip again to something else within the next week so none of these exceptionally mild charts in the first half of February are guaranteed to happen.

mcburns07

10-16 days away though Gonzo. It’ll all change again.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120155109#Comment_120155109

Hopefully will change for the better before we are done with winter. The models have been flipping from one thing to another over the past 10 days. The NAO and AO are set to go fairly positive over the next 2 weeks so not a good sign for northern blocking, we will see what happens over the next 2 weeks to see what the final 2 weeks of February may bring.

LaoisWeather

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154822#Comment_120154822

However in the past week FI has flipped from mild and stormy to cool and slightly wintry and now exceptionally mild. It is entirely possible this could flip again to something else within the next week so none of these exceptionally mild charts in the first half of February are guaranteed to happen.

Yeah, the models seem to be on to a pattern for a few days, then change to another pattern only to hold that for a few further days, and then bang, change to yet another pattern. Consistently inconsistent is the best way of summing up the last week of model outputs.

nacho libre

The latest GFS has some very cold air making its way across the Atlantic from the north west around the 7th of February . Of course it is more than likely the GFS over egging it. But let's for fun assume that it was correct, there would be heavy snow showers widely across Ireland due to the instability

US3

Would love to see a repeat of February 2019, I think it got up to about 17° at one stage .

sryanbruen

Think we get the uselessness of the GFS by now after its “upgrade” but the 12z takes the biscuit with a Scandi High and easterly on 6th February 😭😂

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120156966#Comment_120156966

It has started on the Spirits early- it's usually the pub run that churns out the fantasy charts! The 510 dam thickness off the west coast in a previous run was more plausible than this! I think Lloyd Christmas has more of a chance with Mary Swanson than this coming to pass!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157117#Comment_120157117

As expected it is a massive outlier, textbook outlier. In the bin it goes.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157117#Comment_120157117

Spirits??? I’m thinking more in terms of crack cocaine…..

Dieter Langer

1998 again.

The birds who sing in winter will cry in Spring.

Gonzo

the pub run should be very sobering like the 00z and 6z. That 12z looks lovely but I've more of a chance of winning the Euromillions even tho I don't buy any lottery tickets.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158484#Comment_120158484

Lol! If you're not in, you can't win 😉😂

nacho libre

Well, well, what is the ECM up to by day 10. If this run went further it's possible it would end up similar to the previous GFS run. We see the high attempting to go north. What looked like a forgone conclusion for a period of zonality is less certain now. Let's see if this idea of the high attempting to build northwards is built on.