FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

LaoisWeather

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120110990#Comment_120110990

It just doesn't look like much is coming down the tracks, the Euro high seems especially strong this year and hard to budge.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120110990#Comment_120110990

Some people are glass half empty and some are glass half full. Elmer is the former. I suppose us coldies have been burnt so much in recent winters that it’s hard not to be glass half empty? I’m somewhere in between!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120111046#Comment_120111046

Well, it has been, but to say on Jan 16th it is the death knell for every winter is rash. Afterall some places will see snow this week. Also February is usually are most likely month for snow. A protracted freeze is always the long shot for us, so in that regard he could well be right, however with the ongoing warming in the strat we can't completely discount that possibility either

Gonzo

GFS 6z shows a significantly dryer second half to January across many central, eastern and southern areas. Western and northern areas will be wetter but even there it's unlikely to be as wet as the first half of this month. Once we get this dry northerly out of the way then we will be banking on high pressure to take over to keep things much dryer till February.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120111838#Comment_120111838

I can only assume your last sentence is just to taunt people. If you are a genuine weather enthusiast why would you look for high pressure sat over us burning up Winter!

Anyway, ppn charts now starting to zone in on quite a bit of snow for the North and West on Tuesday afternoon to Wed evening. Indeed looks quite disruptive for hilly areas there. Very cold and frosty elsewhere with frost likely persisting all day mid week.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120111915#Comment_120111915

Looking for high pressure to dry out the land. My garden is a swamp, the ditches are full of water and standing water everywhere. Worst I've seen in several years, so some dry weather is well and truly needed. We've had a deluge pattern since 2nd September i'm sure there are many places around Ireland that could do with several weeks of dryer weather and looks like we are going to get that over the next 2 weeks.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120111838#Comment_120111838

While it will be predominantly dry, there will be some snow around this week, so it won't be just a dry northerly for everyone. I agree about the saturated land. If the GFS is correct, then things will turn out exactly as the extended outlook video last week by the UK Met predicted it would:, settled in the east and south, with it being a bit more unsettled further north.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is the first operational run I've seen to suggest a major SSW, it reverses to easterly just borderline on the 29th January (-0.3 m/s U-60N) and is very short. It is also a displacement event, no split evident here. Good to see the GFS at least continuing to pick up on a significant deceleration in the final week of January whilst Glosea and EC say no.

nacho libre

Displacements usually don't go in our favour, but there is suggestions that it might this time. Unfortunately from what I have read the GFS is less reliable in the strat too. So as you say we really need Glosea and the ECM to be on the same page to have any confidence in this happening.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120112448#Comment_120112448

Indeed it is less reliable but due to its projection period, it can pick up trends other NWP may not and some kind of significant deceleration is an ongoing trend at the moment for the past week. However at the same time it can still have a tendency to be "overeager" in showing these major SSW events. We'd need the Ural high to sustain itself as you know.

Displacements historically are not favourable for blocking in this part of the world, although recent analysis from Singularity on Netweather (see below) of 2m temperature following PV displacement and PV split events isn't as clear cut as we think or believe, especially in the US for displacements.

A few things I note are:

1. Much of Canada has a warm signal in both types of PV events. There is no clear cut mild or cold signal for eastern seaboard of America.
2. Greenland is much colder typically following PV displacements, usually indicative of a +NAO signature and in displacements the PV often sets up here. This might be why the reliability of getting cold blocked patterns for Europe is unreliable here with displacements. However, there is no strong signal for mild or cold in western Europe with Ireland included whilst the mild signal is stronger in eastern Europe.
3. There is a very strong signal for colder than average temperatures for Europe following PV split events. The signal for cold is also significantly stronger for America during split events rather than displacements. Note Greenland much warmer than average following split events - indicative of a -NAO signature.

nacho libre

Just for fun... This will never happen but its nice to look at it. The uppers look just about cold enough!

OldRio

'If you are a genuine weather enthusiast why would you look for high pressure sat over us burning up Winter'

What a very odd thing to say against one of the most prominent posters on this board. Very very odd.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks a certainty now that we will have a drying out of the weather into week after next. So in summary December and January are going to deliver zero snowfall for the vast majority. Already thoughts turn to February to salvage something.

Zero snow falling, not to mind sticking, really is a very poor outing even in the heart of global warming.

While it's been a wet Winter it hasn't been a stormy one, indeed have we had one named storm?

Re earlier comments I get why farmers would want high pressure and a drying out of land. But I don't understand why a weather guru would want anticlonic gloom to take hold at any time of year. I guess we all have our tastes in weather but my own love of weather was not spawned by a cloudy high pressure in January. It must be the most deflating weather type, several days if not weeks of nothing

squonk

Speak for yourself but from my perspective, living in the west coast in a microclimate created by Galway bay where drizzle & mist is the default setting even on days when 10 miles down the road it’s Sunny and the rest of the country experience a decent day, I’ll take a stagnant high with calm and cloud over anyone else if I have a choice. Yeah show is great but all but we aren’t ever going to get a heavy fall from this setup anyway except maybe in the north of the country or in higher ground. around here the ground is saturated so having a high and some decent weather to get out and about and for places to dry up is no bad thing.

Cluedo Monopoly

This frosty/snowy weather will also cause the water levels to go down. The key in the W/SW/NW is the runoff from the mountains. Especially important where I live - Lough Corrib is very high and needs to drain. I was out in Connemara yesterday and the mountain streams were gushing down which of course means the rivers flowing into the Corrib were swollen. The snowline was around 600m but if that got down to 300m with sharp frost, it would reduce the runoff considerably allowing the time for the rivers and lake to reduce which in turn helps drain the saturated land. I would expect the water level stations to reverse the latest trends and report a dropoff by midweek. The water level stations were pushing through the median flood levels in many places late last week. Fingers crossed they have peaked for 2023. Lots of flooding in the fields already. Worst in several years.

The ideal would be a foot of show at sea level obviously!!!

nacho libre

Granted it's the GFS. So it will probably have all changed on the next run.

nacho libre

Let's hope Glosea and ECM get on board with this.

Gonzo

hard to know about the warming, the GFS has been playing around with this idea since before Christmas, first it was going to happen mid January, then towards the end of January and now it's been pushed into the start of February. IF we are to get an SSW and have some sort of a successful response that could benefit us, time is running out on this for the winter if it doesn't happen by 1st week of February. If it happens on 1st of February we would be looking at mid February at the very earliest for any sort of response.

For the majority of us all eyes now on February for a last chance of getting some cold and snow before winter is finished.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120116704#Comment_120116704

Yes, most likely mid February. What we don't want is a good pattern in the troposphere to develop before hand if it does happen. Which, as you mention, is not certain at all. I would have loved a freeze up during the heart of winter but that ship has sailed. Still, if we do get a ssw and a favourable outcome, a freeze to end winter will do. What I don't fancy is a freezing March. The Sun is just too strong by then

Gonzo

A freeze in the final week of winter will have to do (but we have to get really lucky) and it would need to be a direct hit, not just a side swipe to our south-east or cold that stops over the Irish sea. The final week of February is still not ideal but it's better than nothing at all. My cut off point for winter model watching is usually 14th of February as we are already looking into early March by that stage and would have a fair idea by then if we are going to get any cold.

I've no interest in March snow at all, by then my thoughts turn to warmer temperatures and the start of getting back properly outdoors a fair bit.

Artane2002

The GFS 18z is going for 20C in the stratosphere!

pauldry

Going by the craziness of weather nowadays we are likely to get heavy snow any time up till mud March...even after that sometimes.

December 21st to March 21st is peak time for getting snow. There could be quite a surprise in store late Winter me thinks with the possible SSW

Neddyusa

I would say Jan 21st to March 21st moreso, after all, white Easters are more common historically than white Christmases.

Gonzo

This PV is really fighting with everything it's got to stay alive. We get several warmings over the next few weeks and any time it weakens, it reforms almost instantly.

A decent warming around the 25th of January.

A SSW around 30th of January/1st of February. Now you would think this would be close to the end for the PV.

Not even a day later it strengthens again and just get's displaced slightly.

However by February 2nd the displaced PV does weaken quiet a bit

But it's not enough to destroy the PV, this would need another major warming before it regains strength quickly.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119234#Comment_120119234

The temperatures peak somewhere in the mid twenties this time, too crazy to happen I'd say.

nacho libre

Well whatever about the strat, if the GFS is to be believed the Trop Vortex is sliced apart by the 25th.

That high is surely only going one way from there?

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119412#Comment_120119412

That run is typical of our luck, the high appears to want to retrogress to Greenland but then changed its mind and decided to sink southeastwards.

The stratosphere sees a reversal to -4.2 m/s on this run so it's another displacement major SSW.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119636#Comment_120119636

Unbelievable. I did not look beyond that point in time. I am beginning to fear it's just not going to work out for us this year in terms of deeper cold this winter. I think the problem with the warmings is that they are mostly wave 1 events which tend to lead to displacements. This is why the Vortex quickly recovers after each warming. From my understanding if it was squeezed from both sides it would not be able to and likely split. It's very frustrating. It would be just our luck that we finally get High Latitude blocking in time for spring.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119664#Comment_120119664

Bang on.

I've nothing else to add 😂 you've said it perfectly.

nacho libre

Interesting run. Let's hope it's on to something.