FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gizit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120098137#Comment_120098137

It's still showing in some of the ensembles if not the op run, so still a possibility. No reason it can't reappear. As ever with the models more runs needed!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

GFS 12z still on board

WolfeEire

GFS following morning run with a spell of sleet/snow pushing down the island on Tuesday

WolfeEire

GFS ensembles for snow height. Tuesday looks like the day with potential. This chart is for inland Connacht. A couple of cm of lying snow is likely with potential for much more.

ps...I find myself cheering on the area of high pressure to link up with the swelling heights over Greenland around the mid week period next week. It tries but sinks back later next week but still time for that to change. It's unlikely however, due to low pressure spilling out of Newfoundland.

ECM for Tuesday. Doesn't develop an LP as much as the GFS does for now.

Later into the run the Azores ridge topples over, exposing us to a mild Atlantic setup.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120099942#Comment_120099942

This is what the UK Met Office extended was showing a few days ago. Other models have shown it too. I am hoping this is just a transitional phase and we start to see signs it may follow the GFS by day 10 onwards.

nacho libre

Well heights do build to the North East but no cold air to tap to. However if the high can be sustained the cold air might make its way westward eventually

Artane2002

Towards the end of its run, the GFS 6z splits the SPV and to my eyes, the daughter vortices are left in almost perfect positions. Hopefully this gains traction but it's a real shame that it's the GFS showing this and it's in very deep FI. Ideally, this somehow gets brought forward too because things get messier after mid February. Even if it happened exactly as the GFS is thinking, it's not a guarantee of cold and snow because issues may arise, such as no downwelling or if it does and we get a favourable broadscale setup, an area of low pressure could become stuck exactly where we don't need it, such as what happened in February 2021.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102381#Comment_120102381

I've read somewhere that the GFS is not as good in the strat as the ECM. It's great to see, but as you say we need to see Glosea and the ECM pick up the signal. If it so happens the GFS is right, I am reminded of that tweet Amy Butler made a while back that. Of course it could still amount to nothing in the end, but potentially very exciting...

Billcarson

Maybe this winter will be bookended by cold spells. First half of December, second half of February with the rubbish in between. In the middle of the rubbish a cold snap next week for a few days.

Niall145

In the more immediate term I'm really hoping there's an upgrade on snow amounts for early next week; this morning's runs show barely any lying snow anywhere apart from some areas in the West.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102539#Comment_120102539

That's the most likely scenario, the coming week will be mostly dry for many southern, eastern and central areas. That's always the way with a northerly unless you get a proper unstable northerly with polar lows etc and this doesn't look like one of those. The dry weather will be most welcome because everywhere is oversaturated.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102595#Comment_120102595

Whatever happens next week at least its a break from the muck of the last few weeks. That's what I'm looking forward to.

esposito

Yeah it’s annoying the way northerlies never really give us any proper showers away from the north. Usually just dry and cold. Still time for things to change.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102381#Comment_120102381

You would be correct although I would call it a near miss split rather than proper as on the last frame it tries to merge the two vortices together again and the U-60N doesn't reverse (might have if we were to go further as there looks to be some kind of secondary warming that occurs) but the most synoptically stunning stratosphere charts I've seen this season to date so there's that. What it showed is miles ahead of those charts that people posted in late December for early to mid-January which barely defined a warming of any significance as per my previous in-depth post. The GFS due to its projection period will be good at picking up trends once you don't take particular runs as gospel - that's always an obvious immediate red flag when that happens.

Either way it's good to have something to discuss whether it's next week or the future after this monotonous slog of a month so far - not that's unusual for January!

nacho libre

It's clearly a split. With the subsequent warming the Zonal winds should reverse at 10 hpa. If we do get a high to the North East that should aid putting further pressure on the Vortex. I wonder if it occurs is this due to the MJO? It will soon go back to phase three so we need a SSW to happen to hopefully override that signal. Otherwise we probably go back to a positive NAO

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120102595#Comment_120102595

You will always do better in a North Easterly, but some features could pop up which would bring other areas, including yours, into the mix. The UKMO this morning was an example of this, it had little troughs in embedded with the flow. Provided there are no downgrades, and dreaded warm sectors to spoil things, next week could bring some surprises.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120103165#Comment_120103165

It is not very clearly a textbook split on the run itself, which is what I was referring to, if it tries to merge on the last frame. There is no ridge between the two troughs, it is just very stretched with an attempt of trying to split. But we both agree it could (reasonably likely) lead onto an actual genuine split if we could go on a few days further into early February.

sryanbruen

Can't see the corresponding 10mb height and zonal mean zonal winds to confirm but here's my 🍒 pick of the day that is a proper PV split from GEFS P1. This is the kind of stratospheric temperature chart that would get me excited but it's a single ensemble way into fantasy land so ah well. The 12z operational was broadly the same as the 06z with an attempt at splitting the SPV but doesn't quite do so whilst it is still a significant minor SSW.

Apparently Glosea continues to see little chance of showing any kind of significant SSW whilst EC is a mess with regards to spread.

Calculator123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120105011#Comment_120105011

It's all gone a bit parrot-shaped!

(Sorry)

Gonzo

GFS 12z shows promise of things settling down properly into the second half of January. A big area of high pressure may become anchored over us during the 3rd week of January and into the 4th week, it would be reasonably mild too unless inversion causes frost and fog.

I don't think I've been this excited before over the prospect of some dry weather in January. The whole country is in much need of this.

As for the PV it looks like we will have several major warmings that fall short of an SSW but the PV looks as if it's going to put up a real fight keeping itself together despite at least 3 major warmings between now and the end of January. A month of winter model watching left before I turn my attention to Spring and hopefully warmer weather.

esposito

Not liking the 12z ECMWF from a cold perspective. At 192 hrs and beyond there is very little deep cold to our north and east. Not good for prospects down the line..if we were to get a NE/ E’ly. Plenty of time for changes though.

For Ireland at least it will be dry with high pressure over us for a good few days. It will be a snorefest though.

nacho libre

If the block can be sustained it might not be too long before cold comes our way. Although the more likely outcome is the high does not set up favourably to allow that to happen. Still as you say at least there will be a much needed respite from all the rain for a few days.

Rescue Remedy

We all have differing opinions. But I'd hate a high pressure like the 12z GFS in January. To me it's a complete waste of a high that would be lovely from May to September.

Pardon the language but let it pi*s down in January when it's dark early and you can't do as much with fine weather as you can later in the year.

Obviously not rain to the extent there's serious flooding. That's where I stand on this important issue😅

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120109958#Comment_120109958

I suppose we do. I prefer frost and fog over endless days of rain any time. The Rime frost staying on the trees all day during the last cold spell was brilliant. We won't have that this time. I am just hoping with this high we get the so called faux cold as they say on Netweather.

Rescue Remedy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120110011#Comment_120110011

True enough. I think it's the farmer in me I live in hilly wet land. It's not a science or proven, but I like it to 'rain itself out' in winter.

I think of the lovely February 1998 and the horrible summer. March 2012, beautiful, and a terrible summer. I haven't analysed every dry winter and what followed in summer. Each to their own!

I left my home in North Kilkenny and we had a bit of lying snow at 5pm today. 336m altitude did the trick. Often does.

We've half winter to go from Monday 16 January. I mentioned before I'd hope anything cold starts before 20 February.

nacho libre

For me it was a good May meant summer was often times crappy. Stats might well prove this otherwise, but that was my perception from some very wet summers after a good May. Your story about living on high grounds reminds me of something Robert KK mentioned in the past about going to his local town on lower ground in winter time.

Elmer Blooker

..... and there ya have it - a modern ‘winter’ summed up in a single chart.

These Euro highs are the death knell for every ‘winter’

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120110944#Comment_120110944

Perhaps this is a flawed conclusion to make with several weeks of winter left? We have had memorable cold spells evolve from far worse charts. In fact some of these had a high sitting over us beforehand, I am not saying it will happen this time, but to conclude they are the death knell for every winter is not correct.