NI Census 2021

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951859#Comment_119951859

We can't hold a referendum. There is an international agreement setting out the conditions for holding a border poll. Those conditions have not been met.

It is ironic that some of those calling for the UK to break an international agreement and hold a border poll are the same people who have criticised the UK over breaking an international agreement on the Protocol with the Bill before the Houses of Parliament, MLMD being the leading hypocrite on this.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966486#Comment_119966486

The border poll will be held when the Secretary for NI is of the mind that such a poll will be carried. That is it - defined in the GFA.

It is quite a low bar for a SoS if it is the intention of the SoS to hold such a poll, and a very high bar if the intention is to not hold a poll. In this decision, the SoS alone makes that decision and is beholden to no-one in that regard.

How is that any consequence to 'an international agreement setting out the conditions for holding a border poll'? I suggest you go to a quiet corner and reread the GFA.

What nonsense.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966524#Comment_119966524

Yes, that is set out in the GFA. However, where a SOS were to decide today and announce that the conditions were met, he would almost certainly be facing a judicial review and a stay on his actions on the basis that his opinion was not reasonably formed.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966595#Comment_119966595

That does not fit with your declaration that the SoS cannot hold a border poll if he has formed the opinion that the conditions were met. It is quite clear that the SoS can.

A judicial revue could be called for any reason on any matter by anyone - no matter how specious. The court can rule that the petition has no standing, or that the matter deserves to be heard, and then decide on it after a full hearing. That is the way the law works.

It does not justify claiming that because such a course of action is available and can be taken by anyone that the SoS is obliged to consult with anyone anywhere before forming his opinion, or even justify why he has formed his opinion.

Just making things up.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967137#Comment_119967137

I have never said that the SoS cannot hold a border poll if he has formed the opinion that the conditions were met, it is clear that he can.

What I have said is that if a SoS decided tomorrow to hold a border poll, he would be likely to be challenged in the courts that the opinion was not formed on reasonable grounds and in my opinion, he would lose.

You are making up a lot of what you think I said.

Sam Russell

@blanch152 [Quote] From post #632

We can't hold a referendum. There is an international agreement setting out the conditions for holding a border poll. Those conditions have not been met.

That is what you said. Go back and read it.

The condition is simply the SoS forms an opinion. If he forms that opinion then the terms are met.

Whether he faces a challenge is a totally irrelevant matter.

He could face a challenge in the matter of cutting the MLA salaries, but then again he might not. So what.

Every legal case before the courts will have one lawyer arguing the case for, and another arguing the case against. At least one of them is wrong. All you need to bring any case to court is a pile of money and a willing lawyer to take that money from you.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967221#Comment_119967221

Yes, and the conditions have not been met. There is no reasonable basis for a SoS to conclude that a referendum would be likely to succeed. Not a single metric that would point to it. If we were to form such an opinion, a court could conclude he was unfit to hold office, the opinion being so much at odds with reality.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967265#Comment_119967265

That is nonsense.

If a court could hold that a minister was unfit to hold office, the current Gov would be out on their ear. Courts cannot come to that conclusion unless there was a criminal act, and even then, when Johnson was found to have committed a criminal act, he was not deemed unfit to hold office - even though that was beyond dispute. He had already prorogued parliament illegally and had lied to the Monarch, but even with those bordering on treason, he was not deemed unfit to hold office. We have had Gov Minister announcing to the HoC that they intended to break international law, but still do it.

The SoS does not have to justify his opinion, just state it, and then act on it.

You are making this stuff up as you go along. Best advice - when in a hole, stop digging.

Podge_irl

The discussion is largely irrelevant anyway, as no SoS is going to call a poll in either this government's lifetime or the next one.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119969387#Comment_119969387

Well not with the current makeup of the NI Assembly.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970270#Comment_119970270

It will take a lot more than a small change in the NI Assembly. Nationalism has been stuck on a 40% maximum share of the vote for a long time. Until that goes over 50% on a consistent basis, it is difficult to justify a border poll.

Sam Russell

Well, the major problem with the makeup of the assembly is the tribal nature of NI politics.

That will only change after a UI is brought into effect. To bring a UI into effect, the tribal nature of NI needs to change.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970534#Comment_119970534

The tribal nature of NI is changing, there is a rise in the Alliance and other centrist parties as a Northern Ireland identity emerges. Ironically that makes a single unitary state less likely in the long run, but opens other possibilities such as federalism using the existing border.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970546#Comment_119970546

As I have posted before, NI needs to be united before a United Ireland can be a success.

Now by united, I do not mean that all agree, just that the historical hatred that is exhibited for them'uns is forgotten, and all members of society in NI are accepted as equal, as I believe exists in Ireland currently.

That acceptance of equality in Ireland is relatively recent, and is evidenced by the acceptance of same sex marriage, divorce, abortion, etc. Many of these were as vehemently opposed by significant parts of society as deeply entrenched views as any held in NI, but the reforms were voted in and the sky did not fall.

Perhaps the people of NI will accept such open thinking and join the modern open Ireland.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970270#Comment_119970270

The make up of the assembly is largely irrelevant - this is going to be a question of Westminster politics. The Tories aren't interested in independence refs clearly, and its not something a Labour government will want to waste political capital or time on in their first term at least.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970576#Comment_119970576

They could pretty much have the same as part of the UK. They are the issue rather than NI as an entity. Unification won't solve sectarianism.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119972075#Comment_119972075

That is partly true.

Unification will not be possible, or rather, will not be successful, without a significant reduction in sectarianism.

However, if the sectarianism were to be dialled down such that it is not the first issue, then unity can become a political question governed by economics, social benefits, jobs, etc. the way most democracies work.

Under those circumstances, unity would eliminate sectarianism - and normal politics would work.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119972289#Comment_119972289

A reduction in sectarianism is slowly occurring. What are the signs?

Anything that emerges that is not a united Ireland or not a United Kingdom reduces sectarianism. Therefore, the key to lasting peace is the emergence of a Northern Irish identity that brings people together without being threatened by others on this island or by the other island.

Sam Russell

I do not believe that a NI identity is any more than 'Whatever you say, say nothing'

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973970#Comment_119973970

The research seems to disagree with you:

http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/knowledge_exchange/briefing_papers/series4/northern_ireland_identity_garry_mcnicholl_policy_document.pdf

"Northern Irishness does appear to be a real common ingroup identity, inclusive of both Protestants and Catholics. It is associated with pro-social attitudes towards outgroup members so that prejudice is at a lower level than with Irish or British identifiers."

"Most analysis of the Northern Irish identity has suggested that this identity may indeed be one such super-ordinate identity, a new 'shared identity'. Northern Irishness has been shown repeatedly to be perceived as the most inclusive of the main identities here (Moxon-Brown, 1991). Those identifying in this way tend to have more tolerant attitudes to the people of other religions (Lowe & Muldoon, 2014). It is also associated with attending integrated education (Hayes, McAllister & Dowds, 2007), and having contact with religious outgroups. It has also been shown that the further one lives from an area that historically suffered high levels of conflict related violence the more likely one is to consider oneself Northern Irish. These findings seem to add weight to the argument that Northern Irish is an inclusive identity that can overarch the sub-groups Irish and British."

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975008#Comment_119975008

I would read that as 'What ever you say, say nothing'.

If one says 'I'm Irish' or 'I am British' tat immediately identifies with one side or other of the divide.

Much safer to say 'I'm NI' and that stops id