NI Census 2021

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734244#Comment_119734244

Absolutely. UI is the worse case scenario.

the autonomy could be a range of things. Some of your politicians are describing a form of autonomy. Then once we get that we will push for increasing the autonomy as much as possible. That’s logical and inevitable.

are you saying you would accept no level of autonomy- I hope you do as it will ensure there is no UI by securing the moderates.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734382#Comment_119734382

What do you require this 'autonomy' for?

Given Unionist rights and identity (as will the rights and identities of all others) will be protected in a new constitution, what do you need autonomy for?

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119732485#Comment_119732485

Having TDs does not mean being in government. SF have plenty of TDs. Those comfortable in NI currently will be concerned about SF having authority over staunch, loyalist areas. A way has to be found to resolve this.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119732495#Comment_119732495

It would not be continued partition.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119732610#Comment_119732610

There is no 'UI by the terms of the GFA'. Nothing is spelt out as to how it would function. That's why we're having the debate. If you want a UI then you have to win over those in NI right now who are comfortable with the status quo. Recent census shows 29% identify as Irish. Not enough basis there any time soon for the kind of UI people on here seem to think is possible in the near future. Most people in NI identify as British or Northern Irish. How are they to be won over in a border poll if they would stand to lose influence rather than gain it?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119733038#Comment_119733038

It's not tantamount to a veto; it's a stake in the decision-making progress. They wouldn't have more or less influence than other members of the cabinet.

The constitution of a UI would have to be written anew. If you aren't offering those settled in NI presently clout in a UI, why would they bother voting for it?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734640#Comment_119734640

Seriously, are you proposing that Unionists have an automatic pre-ordained seat at Cabinet?

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734725#Comment_119734725

I refer you to the article posted earlier in the Irish News on FF's Jim O'Callaghan:

He believes unionist parties would "consistently have a part to play in the formation of governments in a united Ireland".

"In short, unionism in a new united Ireland would have a much greater influence in the governance of a new united Ireland than it currently enjoys in the governance of the United Kingdom," he is expected to say.

Nonetheless, he suggests that to ensure that pro-union parties retain influence, there could be a requirement in the new constitution that an agreed number of cabinet posts be filled by representatives of unionist parties.

Mr O'Callaghan believes that a post-unification Ireland should retain a bicameral system, with one house sitting in Dublin and the other sitting in Stormont.

Most pundits seem to expect if SF are to go into government in the south, it will be alongside FF. If these are the noises coming from FF, then that is likely where the debate on unity is heading. Not going to be a good look if the coalition partners in government can't agree on how a potential UI will function. I'm not aware of serious proposals put forward in recent times by politicians on unity that don't involve unionists having considerable sway.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734812#Comment_119734812

I refer you this phrase in his musings,

 'there could'

What happens if northern nationalists demand equal rights?

Nobody seems to want to answer the question about 'what this autonomy is for' if all identity rights are enshrined in the constitution.  

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119731976#Comment_119731976

In fairness you seem to be very much with it for a guy in his late 80's !

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734912#Comment_119734912

All this autonomy talk is so they feel special. That's all. Unionism hates equality as you well know. And their enablers within Partitionism need a slap back into reality.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119734912#Comment_119734912

Northern nationalists would have equal rights (if not more) since they would be represented by the largest power bloc.

What it boils down to, ultimately, is the Irish establishment will not proceed with any plan that could see staunch loyalist areas under the direct influence of nationalist politicians only. They will come up with whatever proposal they have to in order to avoid that scenario because they are worried about civil war. And it is the Irish establishment that will be the ones who devise the blue paper that the border poll will be based on. Anyone that thinks FF or FG are going to countenance allowing SF have control over East Belfast, North Antrim etc. when they can't even stomach SF running the 26 are kidding themselves.

Speedline

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735401#Comment_119735401

So partition on a smaller scale is what that looks like.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119726738#Comment_119726738

I don't see that as being a runner.

What I could countenance would be four provincial assemblies each with a lot of local powers. Ulster would of course include Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan.

It'd be good to move some powers out of Dublin and allow some form of genuine local government, rather than the current county manager system which completely negates the idea of local government.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728781#Comment_119728781

Which other languages are native only in Ireland? I'd be very happy to see favourable treatment given to any such languages.

Lznguages such as Polish etc could be given rights on a reciprocable basis, i.e. the same rights for Irish speakers in Poland as there are for Polish speakers here!😉

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735438#Comment_119735438

Where is the partition?

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729123#Comment_119729123

Perhaps a good starting point might be to look at how much - actually how little - Unionists were discriminated against under our current constitution.

Now I did not say how comfortable or uncomfortable they felt. Actual discrimination on the basis of being unionists, or evenas a proxy, on the basis of their religion (although many southern unionists were from a catholic background, such as Conor Cruise O'Brien).

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735445#Comment_119735445

Won't work, because Limerick and Waterford people won't vote for Cork to take them over. The only workable federal solution involves the existing states.

Local government in Ireland has proven itself spectacularly unfit for purpose.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735487#Comment_119735487

http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/constitution2019/201911/1f65146fb6104dd3a2793875d19b5b29.shtml

" All ethnic groups of the People’s Republic of China are equal. The state shall protect the lawful rights and interests of all ethnic minorities and uphold and promote relations of equality, unity, mutual assistance and harmony among all ethnic groups. Discrimination against and oppression of any ethnic group are prohibited; any act that undermines the unity of ethnic groups or creates divisions among them is prohibited.

The state shall, in light of the characteristics and needs of all ethnic minorities, assist all ethnic minority areas in accelerating their economic and cultural development.

All areas inhabited by ethnic minorities shall practice regional autonomy, establish autonomous organs, and exercise the power to self-govern. All ethnic autonomous areas are inseparable parts of the People’s Republic of China.

All ethnic groups shall have the freedom to use and develop their own spoken and written languages and to preserve or reform their own traditions and customs."

It really doesn't matter what a constitution says, does it?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735401#Comment_119735401

How would nationalists have equal rights?

You are proposing that before the electorate vote in a GE, Unionists will already have seats at cabinet?

That is unworkable stuff.

Also, you are saying that even if SF are in power, FG/FF will still be the ultimate power?

Mad stuff tbh.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735765#Comment_119735765

Not in China anyway. I wonder why that is?

Are you saying we will turn into a totalitarian state?

Project fear is underway.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735809#Comment_119735809

No, never said that, once again, you put words in other posters' mouths. Respond to the point raised, not the one you imagine or wish was raised.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735815#Comment_119735815

The constitution matters here, always did and people have been protected by it and have challenged it.

You suggest that will end in a UI.

Project Fear.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735457#Comment_119735457

Ulster-Scot’s for one.

Are you suggesting we will have tri-language signs across Ireland. That would be madness

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735487#Comment_119735487

Is that a serious question or will you just duck and dive when you are given examples.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119731414#Comment_119731414

SF would go into government with anyone who gave them a majority AND allowed them to apply their policies, or most of them. If the UUP did that (unlikely, but you never know) then SF would form a coalition with them if they were the best fit. More likely - to be realistic - UUP would form a coalition with the conservative wing: FF-FG-GP.

As for unionists voting to end partition, well they won't do that. Any unionist who votes to end the "union" by definition is not a unionist. An ex-unionist perhaps, a would-be unionist, again maybe, but more like a realist than a unionist.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735845#Comment_119735845

That is not what I said, it is what you think I said, or what you want to believe I said, or what you want to twist from what I said.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736280#Comment_119736280

So nothing to worry about then. We are not remotely like a totalitarian country and if we all take part in the construction of a new constitution which treats all equally and has built in protection, no reason why we cannot prosper as a UI.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736299#Comment_119736299

The point I am making, which appears to be flying over your head, is that constitutional protections, as you suggest, will not be enough to persuade the middle ground for a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736467#Comment_119736467

Nothing will persuade them according to you.

Yet those who identify as British have dropped 9% in the census. The tides are on the move blanch.

Another raft are about to find out that the Union they revere will not protect them and will throw them under a bus. The tide will shift a bit more when that realisation sinks in.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119735801#Comment_119735801

Unworkable? It's literally the Stormont system. It's called mandatory power-sharing.

Not sure what you mean in relation to FG/FF being the ultimate power. I'm saying if SF want to put forward proposals for a border poll blue paper, they will surely need the support of their coalition partner or the whole thing becomes fragile from the off.

What's mad stuff is thinking a UI is going to be what we have in the 26 but on a 32 county basis. No party down here - including SF - will be offering that when it comes time to put this stuff down on paper. Not sure you appreciate the level of compromise that will be involved. And we haven't even got to the cultural stuff, i.e. flags, anthems, etc.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736147#Comment_119736147

If there is no requirement for the biggest party to take on board unionists in government, why would they bother? You think a unionist party is going to go begging to be given a seat in government when it will just lead to them being called 'Lundy' and 'traitor' by the usual suspects? What do you do if unionists decide to boycott an assembly without power-sharing? What do you do if they decide to 'take a stand' against a SF-led government taking decisions that affect East Belfast or North Antrim? It's for these reasons the Irish establishment won't let such a situation arise.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736483#Comment_119736483

A UI will come about because Stormont and NI has failed (In my opinion it already has by any metric you care to use)

It is 'unworkable', it isn't working at the minute.. Now you want to reconstitute it. It's bonkers thinking.

What I meant about 'ultimate power' is that you seem to think if they successfully bring forward propospals and win approval that there is a 'higher power/establishment' that can stop that. There isn't.

I am quite happy to change flag, anthem etc. BTW

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736546#Comment_119736546

I don't want to reconstitute Stormont. My preference would be for one assembly for the island. But I think it's obvious the way things are going that such an assembly would have some manner of power-sharing built in. The most likely alternative, which I wouldn't want, is a situation where Stormont gets retained and we have a two assembly system.

When I say 'establishment' I mean the established parties, i.e. FG and FF. I can't see either of them going along with a plan that would see unionists left without significant representation. They will be too spooked by the idea, and they are the ones that will have a big say on whatever paper gets out forward.