NI Census 2021

FrancieBrady

British: 31.8%

Irish: 29.1%

Northern Irish: 19.8%

British and Irish (only): 0.6%

British and Northern Irish (only): 8%

Irish and Northern Irish (only): 1.8%

British, Irish & N Irish (only): 1.5%

Other: 7.4%

The number identifying as 'British' has fallen 9% in 10 years. Those identifying as Irish up 4%.

Is the time right to call a border poll on these figures and the fact that Unionism no longer commands a majority?

My own view is that it is that it is reasonable to call one in 3-5 years.

Brussels Sprout

Nah. Sure the "Irish" is only 29.1%.

You can't do anything without that block in the middle and they're going to vote with things like the NHS and the London subvention in mind.

No polling has shown anywhere near a majority for Reunification in the North.

Sam Russell

Before there can be a United Ireland, there has to be a United Northern Ireland.

Loyalty in NI is more for the half-crown than the Crown.

There has to be more integration and more funding guaranteed for a United Ireland before a border poll, and that money has to come from GB, EU, and USA - and lots of it for at least a decade.

Mr.Nice Guy

Too early for a border poll on these figures but they show NI is finished if mainstream unionism can't learn to reach out. Neither insular nationalism nor unionism is going to decide the constitutional question, but rather the bloc in the middle which don't have the emotional connection of the big two blocs, and who tend to vote Alliance.

The historical significance of this census shouldn't be downplayed, however. Those who introduced the border into this country could have provided for a 9-county Ulster, but they considered that option too unwieldy since the numbers for Catholics and Protestants were neck and neck; in other words, like the current figures. They could have had a 4-county Ulster but regarded that as economically unviable. They chose 6 counties to maximise as much territory as possible while keeping the Catholics in check. Those who devised NI would be spinning in their graves at today's news.

9% drop in identifying as British is particularly eye-opening, and that's without the potentially tumultuous events occurring in Scotland, which may not even be part of the UK by the time the next census rolls around.

Is NI about to collapse imminently? No, but the cracks are there for all to see. Whether or not the fissures can be repaired is down to mainstream unionism. Will they try? On the evidence of the last few years, also no.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264411/ni-census-2021

No, as there won't be a majority in favour of a UI.

You need to be sure of a win here and we are decades off this.

Notice that there is a third identity moving up the ranks, Northern Irish.

It's clear there is a big and growing middle ground who don't want anything to do with the sectarian Green/Orange politics of old.

retalivity

Wee Seimi Bryson having a predictable meltdown on twitter. How he has become the 'face' of unionism in the north and comes out with crap like this is an indication of how finished they really are

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1572872094953897985

awec

The "Northern Irish" block is basically soft unionists, combined with the "British" block you essentially have a unionist majority or very close to one, compared to a 29% "Irish" block.

I don't think a unification vote would be a particular close result right now.

StevenToast

It is inevitable that there will be a United Ireland.....it has to be planned out thoroughly and not a mess like Brexit...

The conversation and discussion around what it looks like should be happening now....

Too early for a vote...but maybe within 10 years....an Independent Scotland will happen sooner and could move things along quicker...

Sam Russell

I think Green sectarianism does not exist in Ireland - well not for the 75% who voted for same sex marriage. Those days are gone.

In NI, Sinn Fein can try to make hay on sectarianism, but SF would lose significant support from voters down here if they dropped their populism in favour of sectarian drum beating.

The religious zealots in Ireland would not want anything to do with SF either.

If SF are seriously pursuing a united Ireland, they should join the Alliance Party.

.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649687#Comment_119649687

He is not the face of unionism. Bryson is a mouthpiece for a small, but loud minority.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649713#Comment_119649713

The NI bloc are predominantly younger, pro-EU, socially liberal, Alliance-leaning. You're lumping them in with older, loyalist, anti-Brussels, anti-everything types. It's a big reach to assume that in a debate on the constitutional question, all of this bloc will swing for maintaining the UK, particularly if doing so means staying outside the EU, and possibly attached as a satellite to an England + Wales that Scotland may have left.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649713#Comment_119649713

All the more reason for Truss to call SF's bluff and agree to one!

(And this would also really annoy the DUP - so it's a win-win for Truss!)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649778#Comment_119649778

I agree on that.

The Northern Irish bloc indicates that there are those who will be 'persuadable'.

I think the time has come for the British to show that they are actually democrats and allow the debate to begin proper. Given that, as happened in Scotland, the 'debate' around an actual poll was pivotal in persuading. The pro Independence vote increased from the low 30's to almost winning the referendum there, once the referendum was called.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649778#Comment_119649778

Yes, they are the pragmatic unionist bloc, open to having their minds changed, but at this stage I would think the majority of it would vote to maintain the status quo.

But this can of course change, especially as the "benefits" of Brexit etc become clearer.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649778#Comment_119649778

Even though they may be pro EU, socially liberal etc they may not have an affinity with Ireland.

People need to have an affinity with Ireland (the 26 county state) if they are going to make the big leap and join us.

Also not everyone in the 31.8% British is loyalist, anti everything type either.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649719#Comment_119649719

Why is it inevitable?

If anything the younger generation seem to see themselves as Northern Irish rather than British or Irish. On that basis, far down the line, I could see an independent Northern Ireland. They'll have to sort their economy out first though and stop depending on handouts from London.

(I say this as someone who would vote for Reunification myself by the way)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649977#Comment_119649977

A generation identifying as Northern 'Irish' and not 'British' are likely going to be persuded to stay Irish in a border poll. Many of this new demographic are throwing off the British tag,

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650051#Comment_119650051

That's very presumptive. Many of them see themselves as Northern Irish. They don't want to be ruled from London or Dublin. Their only hope of having their own country, in the long run, would be to reject a border poll.

Larbre34

Nothing is inevitable.

Yes, the 'Northern Irish' cohort is significant, but just because they don't wish to be British doesn't mean that they'd be happy, any time soon, to forgo the NHS and the cushty subvented NI public service jobs, just to identify as Irish in a unified Republic.

They just might be less rabid about expressing it than your typical yoke from Tiger's Bay.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650105#Comment_119650105

How do you know this?

There has not been a proposal from Dublin yet on a UI

This demographic have thrown off Britishness as an identity and see themselves as Irish, albeit 'Northern' Irish. That is significant.

I am not presuming anything, just making the point that there is now grounds for a poll

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650105#Comment_119650105

This is not a new idea either, the idea of an independent NI ruled by neither Dublin nor London has been around for decades. Indeed, in the 70s this idea of an independent NI (called "Ulster Nationalism") had support from groups like the UDA.

The idea obviously died off given the polarising troubles that drove people into one of two buckets, but it wouldn't be a massive shock to see the idea grow again in future, though the viability and stability of such a state would have a big question mark over it.

Christy42

Do we have evidence that a generation is identifying as Northern Irish?

They seem to have remained relatively consistent in number of the last decade with Irish and other (guessing people from abroad) being the only only taking a large leap. If the younger generation was moving towards Northern Irish identification I would expect them to be growing in numbers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1572880449923592193

josip

The 'Northern Irish' identity is a 'having your cake and eating it' demographic. For the past 5 years it has allowed them to enjoy both the benefits of the EU and the UK, sucking both teats at the same time. But how much longer can that continue? There will come some point in the next 10 years when the English government don't need the NI support and there will be a weakening of benefits from that side.

As regards the census numbers, the trend is your friend. And it's a trend of whopping, tsunamai proportions. Also available in that census will be the age profile of everyone who identified as British only and Irish only and a 12 year old could probably calculate a fairly accurate estimate of what the 2031 figures will be. But if a border poll has not been called before then, the 2031 numbers will make it impossible to postpone.

But I thought the Good Friday agreement only allowed for a border poll on a United Ireland. An independent NI is not an option?

Sam Russell

An Independent NI is not an option under the GF agreement - that is certain.

Also, the UK Gov could start starving NI of funding for, say, the NHS in the interim. They could also start reducing numbers of public employees.

There is no certainty of continued subsidy for NI.

The NI protocol, if ever it starts operating, will begin to give figures for the NI economy. Interesting figures they would be.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650187#Comment_119650187

There is zero political weight behind an 'independent NI'.

Why? Because it has failed at being able to govern itself. The ongoing result of a gerrymandered partition.

Danzy

British identity is in free fall in Britain as well.

There it only has strongholds in over 70s and immigrant communities.

In Scotland under 60s Scottish born majority voted for independence, non Scottish born and over 60s, swung it.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264411/ni-census-2021

Too soon. 10 years if its handled correctly it'll happen. If they make a balls of it it'll be defeated.

There is an excellent book just out about this exact subject.

Mandatory reading for anyone interested:

https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/448578/making-sense-of-a-united-ireland-by-oleary-brendan/9781844886050

Those identifying as British and northern Irish decreased , British significantly. The largest unionist block is in over the 65s. Unionism will weaken further as the years go on as the last 10 years have shown.

Danzy

A unionist analyst wrote how the biggest threat to them was young Protestants studying in England or Scotland and getting work there.

Their parents retiring to the South of England to be near them and their grandparents dying of old age.

Every demographic born in the North for unionism is leaving,one way or another at rates that no community can sustain.

Their big and probably only hope is that as it becomes a more diverse society it will help solidify around the Union, like Scotland saw.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649678#Comment_119649678

I'm not sure about the decades anymore, the way the UK economy is heading. UK Living standards set to be lower than Slovenia's by 2030! Brexit has changed everything. I think we can say with some certainty, that NI will not make it another century.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650463#Comment_119650463

Add the British Attitudes Survey findings that support for NI in the UK itself has fallen from 60% in 2015 to just 49% today and sees a doubling of support for a UI to 30%.

Unionism is in a dark place. Their strategy seems suicidal tbh.

Strazdas

It is certainly a significant development. The primary reason put forward by Unionists for decades as to why there could not be a united Ireland was that Catholics were the minority. It's not necessarily a 'gamechanger' per se, but it does indicate that things are shifting in NI and that the union is on shakier ground.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649650#Comment_119649650

Out of curiosity, why does the funding have to come from GB, EU and the USA, but no mention of the 26 counties.

If we are the net beneficiaries of a UI we should pay a good chunk of the money, rather than this long term goal with no financial commitment as we have currently..

We need to put our money where our mouth is.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650150#Comment_119650150

That's interesting alright. Maybe the NI only segment are not as important as people think.

People assume almost that there is this post peace process group that see themselves as just NI and that as more post peace process kids grow up and become more identity conscious that number would grow.

But as that analysis shows not only has it not grown in a decade it has actually declined.

And also the number claiming "British and Northern Irish" has increased by more than the Northern Irish only has decreased.

So where is that increase in "British and Northern Irish" come from ?

Some from the"Northern Irish" and "British" camps ?

Chips Lovell

It's gas that the unionists are dead set against the Northern Ireland protocol. Not only is there shortsightedness about the great advantage of being both still de facto inside the EU and in the UK at the same time, but also the shortsightedness that this economic advantage could be the reason Northern Ireland would never vote to change it's status. Throwing away the lifejacket.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650842#Comment_119650842

Unionism is on a death march.

They are doing absolutely nothing to save themselves in the long run.

I'd say it's a result of years of a brain drain, all the smart ones went to GB years ago for college and stayed there.

rdwight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264411/ni-census-2021

Sure, go for it Francie. 29.1% is probably roughly the percentage of Kherson residents who identify as Russian and it's good enough for Putin.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650908#Comment_119650908

I personally think they know the game is up and will burn it to the ground rather than accept that the 'protestant state for a protestant people'is gone, forever. Political Unionism knows it can leave (see Arlene) if power transitions to Dublin. It doesn't care about ordinary Unionists that I can see anyhow.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650842#Comment_119650842

It's not really. They spent something like 30 minutes making a decision on which way to support Brexit and to my knowledge, their main reason for supporting it was to go in the opposite direction to SF.

With this support for Brexit they painted themselves into a corner. By NI benefitting from the EU means that the people of NI will be happy to distance themselves from the UK's post-Brexit car crash. If the DUP supported the NIP, then they are only supporting greater separation from the UK.

However, with the likes of Foster taking the £1bn bribe to support the Tories & Brexit and their opposition to what the majority in NI want, they are ensuring that their political future is unlikely to have a long term outlook, and let's call a spade a spade, it's all because of downright bigotry, so good riddance to bad rubbish!

AMKC

I would say Lizz Truss could be the Prime Minister to let Northern Ireland go if she secures 5 more years in their votes in two or three years time. The UK will by that time in massive debt as she is going all out to try and save British Business from the increased prices of Electricity and rising costs as well as ease the costs on British people too. She will keep doing this for as long as she can or at least untill the elections are called and then she will tell the British more lies and when she gets voted back in there will have to be massive cuts all around or the UK will go bust if it has not already.

She will sell Northern Ireland back to then gen just for some funds.

I hope to see a United Ireland in my lifetime but if not I am pretty sure my nieces and nephews will definitely see it as long as that Mad Man on Russia does not start WW3.

For Forks Sake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650187#Comment_119650187

An independent NI would be bankrupt in half an hour

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650948#Comment_119650948

How about if they abstain en-masse in a border poll rather than lose it narrowly?

It would be impossible to then claim a mandate for reunification.

I think what the specific description of the future state would look like would make a big difference to the success or failure of any border poll.

Today's news (which i assume we all knew was coming) might just be the catalyst for the beginning of smart people beginning to lay out the various options and their likely consequences.

A snap border poll would be unhelpful and only harden moderate Unionists and possibly undecided non-sectarian voters, who are the ones who will ultimately decide this.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651215#Comment_119651215

A snap border poll should never be called. Like Scotland's independence ref - in 2 yrs time would be adequate.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650563#Comment_119650563

I would assume that a UI would require the resultant Ireland to be responsible for its own budget, and balance the increased cost of NI joining with whatever subvention, if any, comes with it.

Of course, if there is no funding coming from the three sources I mentioned, the UI might be a dream that never happens because we cannot afford to provide the level of funding the current subvention provides. By the way, we already provide some cross border funding.

If there are no promises of funding, the NI will not go for it, and neither will we.

Chips Lovell

Indeed. Even those turkeys won't vote for Christmas.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651259#Comment_119651259

2 years???? Absolute raving. There is NO way any proper discussion or planning could be done in that amount if time.

I'm a nationalist, I'll vote yes whatever half baked pile of shyte they throw up in front of us.

I'm also likely in a minority in both states at the moment.

If you truly want any version of a UI to succeed then do it properly which isn't 2 years.

Otherwise you're just damaging it's chances of success.

downcow

I don’t see anything to fear for unionism from that census.

what’s great news is that there are more RC than P yet there is no sign of a majority wanting Ui.

even SF could find nothing positive in it but to sectarianise the debate. Why are SF interested in religious makeup of ni - I think we all know

https://republican-news.org/current/news/2022/09/census_results_show_or.html

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651334#Comment_119651334

I don’t see anything to fear for unionism from that census.

Surely the 9% drop in "British only", the 7% drop in " British and Northern Irish only" is a concern.

realdanbreen

I hear on the news that the census shows that there are now more catholics than protestants in the North. Why this even makes the news is beyond me as most adults have outgrown the whole Catholic protestant nonsense years ago! Unionism,nationalism,loyalism, republicanism , most people couldn't give a flying fuk and just want to live their lives. Outside paramilitary thugs and political activists who live off division nobody gives a **** about religious divides.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651291#Comment_119651291

I don't see the run in being much longer as it will be destabilising if it is much longer.

That's why it is now imperative that the Irish government properly prepare and put a proposal together.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651334#Comment_119651334

If you don't see anything to fear for unionism it's because you have your head in the metaphorical sand. A united Ireland is going to happen, the only question is when. And this census indicates it's going to happen a lot sooner than many thought. Brexit has definitely accelerated the process and the demographics aren't on the unionist side either. A 9% drop? Just how can that be explained?

Also, as you are no doubt aware, Sinn Féin have not secterianised the debate. The censuses pre 2011 have only included religious breakdown and 2011 was the first census to include questions regarding national identity. Historically, the RC/P split was the metric used to predict demographic shifts in the future. It's always been recognised that a majority RC population would happen before a majority were pro UI, but it's a significant milestone* on the road.

* = 1.6kmstone. No harm in getting familiar with metric units early.