Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814785#Comment_119814785

I don;t view any weather as " miserable"... Living deep rural/island for decades changes the view... Hence my understanding of what Saint Francis writes. An integral and valid and essential part of our lives to be befriended and understood.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875708#Comment_119875708

Pretty sure the experts on here have many times proved how man is not affecting the climate, you must be new lol

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875708#Comment_119875708

Sorry now @amandstu - but a response like that just smacks of downright condescendence. @highdef is very correct to look at the broader picture of what is causing some pattern changes to the weather this year as opposed to just taking the quasi-religious approach/doctrine that humans, specifically western world ones are totally at fault and no other explanations are necessary.

A proportion of the regular posters on the Board Weather Forum have throughout the years discussed weather events at length and the broadly share thoughts are that humans are causing some climate change with natural variations making up the rest. This is no more correct or incorrect than the incoherent ramblings spouted by the media in recent years.

Having a sceptical eye on this topic is healthy and any "science" worthy of the title should be more than happy to have scrutiny applied to it. Sadly though, I see the reality is the opposite with any scepticism being actively being quashed and terms like...

If only climate deniers were the first species to become extinct.

...suggests that the apparent "science" around Climate Change is not as certain as is being advocated, and thus the stock action is to snuff out anything contrary to that narrative. This is very similar to how cults and dodgy religions work.

Not something to be really proud of, eh?

highdef

Cheers @Danno

Indeed, @amandstu, I think you're missing my point. What I'm saying is that the report in the first post in this thread is about the large naturally caused water vapour "cloud" circling the southern hemisphere, which looks to have resulted in much lower temperatures than normal there due to less solar radiation reaching the lower atmosphere/ground level. The report indicates that this vast area of water vapour may well be the primary cause of the unusual weather in many parts of the southern hemisphere since earlier this year. It may also be at least partly responsible for the unusually warm conditions in many parts of the northern hemisphere.

My point was that all the unusual weather conditions in the past several months that have been reported on mainstream media were attributed to climate change caused by humans when it's very possible that the Hunga Tonga eruption is at the very least partly responsible for the extremes of weather seen throughout much of 2022, post volcanic eruption. Based on the information within the report (and assuming it's correct), then the Hunga Tonga eruption may well have been the key contributor to the reasons for a lot of the extreme weather experienced globally during 2022, post eruption.

It's always best to step back and look at the broader picture and to be able to accept new information that you may or may not initially agree with, for whatever reasons. Putting yourself in a silo where you believe that the primary cause of climate change during 2022 is occurring because of mankind and not accepting that it could be due to natural events would be unwise and not prudent. If the Hunga Tonga eruption is the reason for most of the extremes of weather seen this year, then what we would have been seeing over the past several months is a temporary blip in our usual weather rather than an actual major change in global climate. Classifying all of the unusual weather this year as being caused by humans and not accepting that it could be due to natural events, even when evidence may suggest otherwise, would be foolish.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877724#Comment_119877724

I doubt anyone is doing that except in your head(and the "mainstream media" of course</sarc>)

This is off topic.Bye.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877795#Comment_119877795

You're very unclear at to what you're referring to in your first sentence, maybe you can clarify as I don't want to draw my own conclusions or make assumptions but if I don't hear back, cheerio.

Graces7

Winter is in the wings.. waiting.... It will come soon enough. It does not answer to any other voice or summons. Simply when and how ... Terms like EARLY or LATE are meaningless which is a part of the mystique and mystery of a temperate and variable cimate. It will come when it comes. Gently or rumbustiously! That is part of the beauty of it. Free ranging... Tonight that deep intense silence... Breathtakingly lovely.

ZX7R

First snow of the season for me

IMG-20221118-WA0003.jpeg

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119889733#Comment_119889733

Enjoy!

Parts of the USA are getting pummelled with snow at present...

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1593675338663530498?s=20&t=XB0xdhR0gcslU6xz2-9xNA

Hopefully it won't fire up the jet stream across the Atlantic and spoil our cooler more settled (less unsettled) spell.

ZX7R

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119891800#Comment_119891800

I am eastern Poland.

There long range forecast is for a back ended winter ,southern Poland is expected to be Colder than average and higher than average snowfall. Northern Poland temperatures to be average of above and dryer than average.

The kids enjoyed it ,but I don't enjoy as I use too.

Not like in Ireland when I'd be lamppost watching different when you have to work in it.

Graces7

A wintry chill and it speaks its intentions with an ominous sporadic intermittent HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWL. Werewolf song

Not ventured outside yet.. if the wind is as I think it is getting to the gate and back will be.. Or WOULD be.

For me with my North of England raising and life, November is winter.

And today is wild and chills . Stay warm! Or wind walk if you enjoy that! I may indulge later..

West Mayo offshore refuge

Cluedo Monopoly

It's cold now for sure but I cannot get over how little stove fuel (mainly timber) I have used so far this autumn. I filled the shed by July and I have hardly touched it. A very very mild intro to the winter. The mildest in my recent memory.

lapua20grain

My heating only went on yesterday for the first time since last winter. Nice low gas bill up to now.

Gonzo

The long term models are pointing towards a fairly mild December overall but there is a chance that December could be a dryer month than what we've been used to over the past couple of months. If high pressure was to set up over us during December this could deliver frost and fog and fairly low temperatures on the surface despite upper air temperatures milder than average. The next 2 weeks continue to look Atlantic dominated but there is a chance things will dry up and quieten down around the 1st week of December, fingers crossed.

Rather than wishing for a cold spell with snow in December, I think it's more important we dry the land out first, we really do need an extended break from all the rain. Temperatures have also been extremely mild to warm for the most part up to now, would be good to get some clear, dry and frosty weather going in December which would be quite seasonal in it's own way. The sea surface temperatures around us are also higher than usual for the time of year after such a warm year and hot summer, we need those to cool down too over December. Hopefully by January if we get a proper cold spell that the seas around us will have cooled down a fair bit and the land dried out a bit.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119893069#Comment_119893069

It has been wonderul not needing to light the stove. Today is I think the third time.. I paid for ten bags of coal way back when it became known that it was going up in price and now it will last months.. it is cold in the wind today. A bitter bite to it.

sryanbruen

Okay, time for a well overdue update on my thoughts for winter 2022-23. The lack of such posts from me is not because I have been busy but due to the fact that there is nothing clear to steer my thoughts in a particular direction. Here's why.

We may be in a La Niña phase of the central Pacific Ocean for the third year in a row in terms of sea surface temperatures. However, the atmosphere this autumn and especially through November has been much more El Niño-like with regards to the MJO. El Niño composites of past years are much more in line with how this November has panned out than La Niña. There has been basically zero mid-Atlantic ridging this November, it has all been troughing whilst any ridges have been to our east in varying latitudes. This does not give much hope for confidence in any forecasting or any of the seasonal models because the modelling has been very strongly reflective of how a typical La Niña winter progresses with any tendency for -NAO earlier on in winter (November with the highest tendency) whilst +NAO (February with the highest tendency) later. What a mess.

There has been a significant cooling in the North Atlantic where the troughing has been centred for most of the autumn and is much more in favour of +NAO than it was looking at the start of the season when I did my initial thoughts where the Atlantic was in an unprecedented warm state since 1851. The colder SSTs combined with the continuing warm SSTs elsewhere will only help intensify areas of low pressure in theory.

There's always the added complication of an intensifying stratospheric polar vortex at this time of year, nothing new there. If the SPV strengthens and sets up over Greenland, there's little hope for blocking to get going. There does not seem to be an increased chance of a major sudden stratospheric warming event relative to climatological norm.

Most of the seasonal models are going for an anticyclonic winter with month to month variation in the placement of the ridge - December having the highest chance of a chilly or cold month with increased risk of frost and fog compared to norm whilst February mildest with more of a Euro high as low pressure returns to Iceland. The models sometimes pick up good trends like 2019-20 and 2021-22 but can also fail to a spectacular degree like 2018-19 and I would not be surprised at all given the circumstances set out this autumn that this winter will be one of the latter rather than the former.

It only goes to show the weather will do what it wants and nothing is set in stone. I haven't done a seasonal forecast since summer 2019 and I don't intend to bring them back.

Danno

Upstate New York is getting tons of lake effect snow 😍

https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1593765537535836160?s=20&t=VQeGRGhDDT3tQvutTuF_vA

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119894197#Comment_119894197

Blame global warming:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-it

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119894496#Comment_119894496

Long time since I heard global warming mentioned - it had mysteriously morphed into climate change and now climate crisis and also spawned a new offspring called climate justice.

M.T. Cranium

The weather pattern out this way is very unusual, almost no rain even in coastal regions in what is usually about the wettest portion of the wet season, so dry in fact that brush fires have continued to occur in parts of BC. In my area it has been very cold and dry with snow on the ground, in contrast to the usual damp and mixed-precip sort of regime we get, often lasting well into December before it gets this cold. Nearby Spokane WA has a running anomaly of about -4 C to date. The cause is a stationary ridge of high pressure in the upper levels sitting just off the west coast or sometimes on the coast, so there has been a persistent northerly flow into central regions. Eastern regions of N America started off with record warmth to about the 12th, after which it has turned progressively colder. The most similar analogue (which is also a good one for Europe) seems to be 1938. This opens up the possibility of some cold and snowy intervals as early as mid to late December. That unusual situation in the southern hemisphere probably makes this a very tricky year ahead for long-range outlooks, as that water vapour anomaly could gradually work its way across the ITCZ and affect our hemisphere, but the science on all that is sparse to non-existent. It's a different question, but the Krakatoa dust veil appeared to have a lag time of 1.5 years in terms of its maximum impact on the northern hemisphere, late winter of 1884-85 showing the largest impacts.

There have been a number of significant extremes in European weather in 2022 so it would not surprise me if some aspect of the winter became extreme too.

Graces7

MT; my family in BC are wearing outdoor clothes all day inside. They are a stalwarl lot so that says it all.

Waking here to a bitter sharpness. Flexing my fingers to keep them moving. lol... The coldest it has been this while. Stove WILL be lit!

giveitholly

The very slightest of dusting of snow atop Galtymore at dusk this evening

ninebeanrows

Are there faint signs of something cold and interesting tonight?

icesnowfrost

Hi guys, have we a FI thread going yet for the coming winter.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119904607#Comment_119904607

Over the next day or so it should kick off. Basically when everything 120hrs + is December 1st or later.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119904607#Comment_119904607

I usually make the new FI Threads about a day or 2 before the end of the season. But seeing as this will be the all important winter FI thread I might start it a bit earlier than usual.

Still waiting on my pc to be back up and running before I do so, should have it back from the UK by Wednesday hopefully.

Gonzo

Interesting to see the past few CFS runs have been teasing some fairly chilly stuff at times during January particularly and sometimes February. Latest CFS isn't quite as exciting as yesterday but still shows some cold and potentially snowy weather at times. BCC going for an increasingly blocked winter as we progress into January. None of this can be taken seriously but it makes a change from looking at Atlantic dominated long range weather models during the final week of Autumn.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119907293#Comment_119907293

Excuse my ignorance but what is BCC ?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119907355#Comment_119907355

Beijing Climate Centre, one of the many seasonal models.

BLIZZARD7

Some very seasonal weather looking more and more likely as we kick off December looking at the charts over the past week or so. If we start the season with a hemispheric profile like the 12z GFS is showing, we are starting from a very strong point. Rarely have we had it that good starting winter, still, it’s out in FI for now but it’s looking good so far with support gradually building across the models.

December 2017/2009/2010 are the few times in our recent past with similar looking patterns.